Check out my Ciryl Gane vs. Josh Hokit prediction for UFC 334 on Saturday, November 14, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Ciryl Gane vs. Josh Hokit Odds
| Gane Odds | -218 |
| Hokit Odds | +180 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (+124 / -160) |
| Location | Madison Square Garden, New York City |
| Bout Time | 11:30 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 334 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 334 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
On Saturday, the UFC returns to Madison Square Garden for a 13-fight card, headlined by Ciryl Gane's first defense of the undisputed heavyweight title against unbeaten challenger Josh Hokit.
Gane (11-2, 1 NC in the UFC) captured the belt by knocking out Alex Pereira in Round 2 in June. Before that, his fight with Tom Aspinall ended in a first-round no contest following an eye poke, and he edged Alexander Volkov via split decision in their rematch.
Hokit (10-0 as a pro) is 4-0 in the UFC, with first-round knockouts over Max Gimenis and Denzel Freeman, a unanimous decision over Curtis Blaydes, and a Round 2 knockout of Derrick Lewis in June.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC 334 Main Event on Saturday night and use those factors to bet on these heavyweights. They're expected to make their cage walks at approximately 11:30 p.m. ET (8:30 p.m. PT) on Saturday evening.
Here's my Gane vs. Hokit pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
Graphic
Ciryl Gane is the bigger man (3" taller, 8" reach advantage), but Josh Hokit is 7.5 years younger than the 36-year-old champion. Gane is also typically the heavier, more natural heavyweight, while Hokit fights well under the division limit, although there was just 11 pounds between them on the scales on Friday.
The pair share one common opponent: Derrick Lewis. Gane stopped Lewis in Round 3 in 2021 and out-landed him 98-16 without attempting a takedown. Hokit stopped Lewis in Round 2 in June, out-landed him 86-7, and added two takedowns and four minutes of control time.
On the feet, Gane should hold a substantial technical edge. He has out-landed all 14 of his UFC opponents (+3.1 strike differential per minute; +3.35 adjusted for opponent quality), with excellent head defense (76%), and he spreads his offense across all three targets (45% head, 27% body, 29% legs) with his jab, teeps, and both inside and outside low kicks.
Hokit's raw numbers are even better (+4.2 per minute; +4.4 opponent-adjusted), but that comes from just 36 UFC minutes; 90% of his strikes target the head, and his own head strike defense (52%) leaves him open to counters. Moreover, his lunging, looping punches, thrown at an 8" reach disadvantage, are exactly what Gane wants to counter. The Blaydes fight was Hokit's real striking test, and it was nearly even (177-174 in significant strikes), with Hokit losing Round 1 by 17 strikes before taking over; Gane will be far more difficult to hit than Blaydes.
Hokit's path is wrestling, as a former D-I All-American. He has spent 28% of his UFC fight time in control (compared to 9% for Gane), and Gane's takedown defense (47%) has always been the hole in his game. Ngannou took him down four times and controlled him for roughly 8.5 minutes, Jon Jones took him down twice and submitted him in barely two minutes, and Volkov landed three takedowns in their rematch.
Still, Gane's get-up game is better than his first-layer takedown defense; Ngannou needed 25 minutes of grinding to win a decision, and Gane added two takedowns of his own against Volkov. Hokit's top control isn't great either; it was loose against Lewis, and Blaydes took him down twice, so I'm not convinced that one takedown will be enough to keep the champion grounded for a round.
And Gane has the clear edge in championship rounds: he's been to Round 4 or later three times and won every fifth round (3-for-3), and while his output dips late (5.7 to 3.9 strikes landed per minute), he still wins the minutes. Hokit has never seen Round 4, and only five of his UFC minutes have come in Round 3.
Still, Hokit's forward pressure could dictate the pace of this fight, and Gane is far more comfortable settling into a mid-tempo, outside kickboxing match than being forced to retreat and counter off the back foot.
Gane vs. Hokit Prediction, Picks
I projected Ciryl Gane as a 64.3% favorite (-180 implied odds) in this matchup, and I expect the bout to reach a decision 31% of the time (+226 implied odds). As a result, I align with both the side and total markets for Saturday's main event, and I don't project an edge on any winning method props, either. Gane by decision (projected +389, listed +400 at best) is closest, but doesn't show enough of an edge to make the bet actionable.
Instead, I'm targeting the stat props.
Hokit lands 1.5 takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC (50% accuracy), but may be more proactive about it here, as he has to wrestle to win this matchup, and Gane's 47% takedown defense makes the prop worth a bet at plus money.
Gane needs roughly 12 minutes at his career pace (5.4 landed per minute) to clear his significant strike total, and I'll play his Over 62.5 Significant Strikes. I'll also take a smaller position on Hokit's Over 48.5 Significant Strikes, given his pace in a limited sample; Hokit tends to force action by refusing to step back in the cage.
Lastly, if Hokit wins Round 1 as he did against Blaydes, Gane has been at his best in the second (91% of rounds won, +4.1 per minute) and third rounds (+4.5). I'd bet the champion live after Round 1.
Sean Zerillo's UFC 334 Best Bets
- Josh Hokit Over 1.5 Takedowns -105 (bet to -150)
- Ciryl Gane Over 62.5 Significant Strikes (bet to 70)
- Josh Hokit Over 48.5 Significant Strikes (bet to 55)
- Ciryl Gane Live after Round 1
