Check out my Drew Dober vs Chris Duncan prediction for UFC 334 on Saturday, November 14, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Drew Dober vs Chris Duncan Odds
| Dober Odds | +150 |
| Duncan Odds | -180 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-130 / +100) |
| Location | Madison Square Garden, New York City |
| Bout Time | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 334 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 334 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Here's my Dober vs. Duncan pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
Dober vs. Duncan Pick, Prediction
Chris Duncan enters off a loss in his first main event in April to Renato Moicano, while Drew Dober has won two straight by knockout (Kyle Prepolec in Round 3, Michael Johnson in Round 2) after looking like his legendary chin was finally cracking.
Duncan is 2" taller, has a 1" reach advantage, and is 4.5 years younger, but Dober may have the positional advantage in an orthodox-vs.-southpaw matchup; he's 5-4 against southpaws in the UFC, with all of those wins coming by KO/TKO: Michael Johnson (R2, 2026), Kyle Prepolec (R3, 2025), Ricky Glenn (R1, 2023), Nasrat Haqparast (R1, 2020), Jason Gonzalez (R1, 2016).
These two have plenty of common ground. Moicano beat both men (Dober by decision with three takedowns and 10:33 of control time; Duncan by Round 2 submission), Manuel Torres knocked out both in Round 1, and both beat Terrance McKinney in Round 1 (Dober by knockout, Duncan by submission).
The striking numbers are close (+0.37 per minute for Duncan, +0.15 for Dober), but Dober is the far more dangerous puncher (11 UFC knockout wins; he's dropped or stopped 57% of his UFC opponents). Duncan hasn't been dropped or stopped in eight UFC fights, but several opponents have wobbled him badly without officially putting him down.
Duncan should hold the grappling edge (2.8 takedowns per 15 minutes, 22% control rate, and a dangerous guillotine), against Dober's 58% takedown defense; Dober has spent 22% of his UFC fight time getting controlled.
Duncan also has the cardio edge: he's won all three of his UFC third rounds (+2.2 strike differential per minute), while Dober has won just 36% of his third rounds (-0.7).
The line has moved toward Duncan (-164 at open, now -185 to -188), and I projected him at -197, so I'm close to the market on the side, but I show enough room on prediction markets up to -185. However, I might prefer his takedown prop (Over 1.5, +100); if that hits, he should both cover his price tag and win the fight, and it's both cheaper and has more ways to win than the moneyline.
I also project this fight to reach a decision 30% of the time (+238), compared to 24% implied by listed odds (+315) – take that prop to +265 – and I like Duncan to win by decision (projected +351, listed +450) from those same moneyline and total projections.
If Duncan drops the first round on the feet, he's also worth a live bet; his late-round profile fits the same Round 3 comeback spot I like for Gordon (+9% expected win probability on scorecards in Round 3 relative to Round 1)
Zerillo's Picks:
- Chris Duncan, Over 1.5 Takedowns (+100, 0.2u), DraftKings; bet to -125
- Chris Duncan wins by Decision (+470, 0.1u), Kalshi; bet to +400
- Chris Duncan Live after Round 1 ��
