Check out my Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke prediction for UFC 334 on Saturday, November 14, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke Odds
| Thompson Odds | -148 |
| Radtke Odds | +124 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-210 / +160) |
| Location | Madison Square Garden, New York City |
| Bout Time | 8:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 334 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 334 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Here's my Thompson vs. Radtke pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
Thompson vs Radtke Pick, Prediction
Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson enters his retirement bout at 43 years old on a three-fight losing streak (a split decision against Gabriel Bonfim, a Round 3 knockout loss to Joaquin Buckley, and a Round 2 submission loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov), after a 16-month layoff.
Charles Radtke has won two straight (a Round 3 submission over Daniel Frunza and a decision over Francisco Prado), and his only UFC losses came via knockout against Mike Malott and Carlos Prates.
Thompson is the bigger man (3" taller, 3" reach) and has outlanded 16 of his 22 UFC opponents (+1.0 strike differential per minute). He also throws more as fights extend; his third-round output averages nearly double (190%) of his first-round output. Radtke is roughly even on the feet (+0.05 per minute), with 85% of his strikes aimed at the head – and Wonderboy is notoriously difficult to track down at distance.
Radtke's path is grappling. He's controlled opponents for 51% of his UFC fight time, hasn't conceded a takedown, and landed four takedowns with more than nine minutes of control against Prado – a win that has aged well. Thompson's takedown defense has leaked for years: Gilbert Burns landed three, Belal Muhammad seven, Kevin Holland two (and could have had more if he tried), Buckley four, and Bonfim five.
The line has moved slightly toward Thompson (-141 at open, now -152 to -155), and I projected him at -143, so I'm aligned.
Instead, I see an edge on Radtke to spoil the party and win by decision (projected +359, listed +410) and, given Thompson's lack of finishes, to at least cover his point spread (+3.5, -150) with one round of effective grappling.
Still, if Radtke banks the opening round on control, Thompson's second and third rounds (+1.4 and +1.7 strike differential per minute) have been far better than Radtke's third rounds (-1.0), and I'd look for a live entry on the veteran after Round 1, even at his age.
Zerillo's Picks:
- Charles Radtke +3.5 (-150, 0.1u), Caesars; bet to -185
- Charles Radtke wins by Decision (+400, 0.1u); bet to +375
- Stephen Thompson Live after Round 1
