Jim Miller vs Terrance McKinney Prediction, Picks, Odds for UFC 334, Saturday, November 14

Check out my Jim Miller vs Terrance McKinney prediction for UFC 334 on Saturday, November 14, along with my betting preview and breakdown.

Jim Miller vs Terrance McKinney Odds

Here's my Miller vs. McKinney pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

Miller vs. McKinney Pick, Prediction

If UFC fights were two minutes long, Terrance McKinney might be the lightweight champion. He has never won a UFC fight that lasted beyond 2:17; his professional fights average 2.5 minutes, and 86% of them have ended in Round 1. He's reached Round 2 just four times in his career, losing in the second round on three occasions.

Jim Miller will make his 48th UFC walk at 43, after submitting Jared Gordon in Round 1 in May. McKinney is the bigger man (2" taller, 2" reach) and 11 years younger, but is coming off a loss to King Green in July.

The pair share two common opponents: Green beat both (Miller by decision, McKinney in a wild Round 1), and both men beat Erick Gonzalez by knockout.

McKinney is the far more dangerous striker (+3.2 strike differential per minute, 87% of strikes to the head, compared to -0.5 for Miller). Fighters with a striking differential edge that size (>3.0 per minute) have won around 71% of the time against an average implied probability of 62 over the past five years. Still, McKinney's own head defense (50%) is porous, and he gasses himself out quickly; he's been dropped or stopped in 46% of his UFC fights (four knockout and two submission losses), compared to 11% for Miller.

McKinney also likes to wrestle (3 takedowns per 15 minutes, 45% control rate), and Miller's takedown defense is just 48%; however, every takedown puts McKinney in the guard of a fighter with a nasty guillotine, and 14 UFC submission wins (1.7 attempts per 15 minutes).

I projected McKinney at -210 (67.8%), close to the market, and I project his KO/TKO odds at +112, and his finish odds at -165, compared to listed odds of +130 and -190, respectively.

Given how quickly his fights end, I'll take McKinney to win by KO/TKO in Round 1 at +170; that's roughly a fair price if 80% of his knockout equity comes in the opening round, and I think you can push that to +150 (closer to 85% of his KO equity in Round 1). Additionally, you can bet a Same Game Parlay (SGP) with McKinney by KO/TKO and Under 0.5 Rounds at +425, down to +300.

I'd avoid McKinney's submission prop, which I believe the market is overpricing.

And if Miller survives the first round – or even the first 2.5 minutes – be ready to fire on the veteran live

Zerillo's Picks:

• Terrance McKinney wins by KO/TKO in Round 1 (+170, 0.2u), FanDuel; bet to +150
• SGP: Terrance McKinney and Under 0.5 Rounds (+425, 0.1u), DraftKings; bet to +300
• Jim Miller Live after Round 1   

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