Check out my Macy Chiasson vs Beatriz Mesquita prediction for UFC 334 on Saturday, November 14, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Macy Chiasson vs Beatriz Mesquita Odds
| Chiasson Odds | +210 |
| Mesquita Odds | -258 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+145 / -188) |
| Location | Madison Square Garden, New York City |
| Bout Time | 6:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 334 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 334 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Here's my Chiasson vs. Mesquita pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
Chiasson vs. Mesquita Pick, Prediction
IBJJF Hall-of-Famer Bia Mesquita is 3-0 in the UFC, with three submissions (Irina Alekseeva in Round 2, then Montse Rendon and Melissa Mullins in Round 1), while Macy Chiasson has dropped three consecutive decisions (Ketlen Vieira, Yana Santos and Ailin Perez).
Chiasson is the far bigger woman (7" taller, 5" reach), but she struggles once she's on her back. Vieira held her down for 10 minutes without landing a single takedown, and Perez took her down six times, controlling her for half the fight.
Mesquita has controlled opponents for 54% of her total UFC fight time, but she's weak on the feet. She's outlanded opponents by 3.3 strikes per minute (93% to the head) in just 13 UFC minutes, but Mullins outlanded her 10-3 and hurt her before Mesquita found the submission. Her cardio beyond Round 2 is untested in an MMA fight. Chiasson's head defense (53%) is poor, but she does have the size and striking to make this fight competitive if she stays upright.
Still, Chiasson also tends to fade; her Round 3 output has averaged just 43% of her Round 1 output.
The line has moved about three percent toward Mesquita (-213 at open, now -250 to -278). I projected her as a 73% favorite (-270 implied odds), so I'm essentially aligned on the moneyline, but Mesquita isn't the type of fighter to lay big juice on; bet her to win dominantly; her -7.5 point spread is -160, and Over 1.5 takedowns is even money.
You can even pair that with a small bet on Mesquita to win by decision (projected +372, listed +460). Still, if Mesquita gets to the positions she needs to win clear minutes, she's almost too good a pure grappler relative to her UFC opponents not to find a finish.
If Chiasson keeps it competitive early, I'd also look to bet Mesquita live after Round 1 against a fading opponent.
Zerillo's Picks:
