Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images. Pictured: Dana White.
Check out my UFC 334 predictions for every fight from the numbered event at Madison Square Garden in New York City.
Below, I look at the latest UFC 334 odds and break down and predict each bout on today's card with updated odds. You can also find my prop and finish projections for each fight.
Let's break it down.
UFC 334 Predictions
After examining all betting options, a typical UFC card can offer substantial actionable value, and after looking at the UFC 334 odds, today's event is no exception.
So, in addition to moneylines and over/unders, I'll break down how I plan to bet on all the fights based on the latest UFC 334 odds, including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.
Here are my moneyline projections for Saturday:
And now my prop projections, including odds for the fight to reach a decision, or for each fighter to win by decision, KO/TKO, Submission, or inside the distance (finish).
23-year-old Brazilian Samuel Sanches makes his Octagon Debut on Saturday after a quick win on Contender Series last September. He was supposed to face Tofiq Musayev in March but withdrew due to injury.
Sanches will face Evan Elder, who has won three straight after consecutive losses to begin his UFC tenure but hasn't fought in about 19 months, pulling out of a bout with Tom Nolan just two months ago with a leg injury of his own.
Elder has been a fast starter in the UFC; he's won 80% of his first and second rounds, but just half of his third rounds, when his strike differential flips from +1.5 to -1.2 per minute after 10 minutes. He has never been knocked out (his lone TKO loss came via doctor stoppage against Nazim Sadykhov), and he's a big lightweight with a grappling path if he commits to it. Still, he's been wobbled by a couple of opponents standing and hasn't completed more than one takedown or held control for longer than two minutes in any UFC bout.
We don't have UFC data on Sanches, but he's a highly touted knockout artist, and the market has moved roughly four percent toward the debutant, from roughly even at open to -110 to -115 as of writing. The two are the same height (5'10"), but Sanches is six years younger, the more explosive athlete, and pairs his 2" reach advantage with much quicker, more powerful hands.
I projected Sanches as a 58.2% favorite (-139 implied odds), and I would bet his moneyline to -130.
And if Elder wins the opening round and starts to slow, I'd add to Sanches live after Round 1.
Bets
Samuel Sanches (-115, 0.5u), DraftKings; bet to -130
Alatengheili accepted this fight on short notice in place of Adrian Yanez, coming off a controversial split-decision win over John Castaneda in September.
"The Mongolian Knight" has been outlanded by eight of his 10 UFC opponents (-2.3 strike differential per minute), but he's extremely durable and difficult to finish; nine of his 10 UFC fights have gone the distance (five wins, two splits), and he's never been stopped in the promotion. He also has solid takedown defense (75%). Still, Juan Diaz is the bigger man (3" taller, 3" reach), 6.5 years younger, well-rounded, and he submitted Malcolm Wellmaker in Round 2 of his dominant UFC debut in May as a +190 underdog.
The market has moved roughly three percent toward Diaz (-333 at open, to -425 as of writing). I projected him at -385, in between the opening and current numbers, and I don't show enough of an edge on the distance prop (projected -188, listed -185) with that number climbing too. Still, I do show slight value combining the market movement on both Diaz and the distance prop with Diaz by decision (projected -115, listed +100), and I would take that prop small to -110.
Bets
Juan Diaz wins by Decision (+100, 0.25u), Kalshi; bet to -110
Juan Diaz Over 1.5 Takedowns (-115, 0.15u), Caesars; bet to -135
IBJJF Hall-of-Famer Bia Mesquita is 3-0 in the UFC, with three submissions (Irina Alekseeva in Round 2, then Montse Rendon and Melissa Mullins in Round 1), while Macy Chiasson has dropped three consecutive decisions (Ketlen Vieira, Yana Santos and Ailin Perez).
Chiasson is the far bigger woman (7" taller, 5" reach), but she struggles once she's on her back. Vieira held her down for 10 minutes without landing a single takedown, and Perez took her down six times, controlling her for half the fight.
Mesquita has controlled opponents for 54% of her total UFC fight time, but she's weak on the feet. She's outlanded opponents by 3.3 strikes per minute (93% to the head) in just 13 UFC minutes, but Mullins outlanded her 10-3 and hurt her before Mesquita found the submission. Her cardio beyond Round 2 is untested in an MMA fight. Chiasson's head defense (53%) is poor, but she does have the size and striking to make this fight competitive if she stays upright.
Still, Chiasson also tends to fade; her Round 3 output has averaged just 43% of her Round 1 output.
The line has moved about three percent toward Mesquita (-213 at open, now -250 to -278). I projected her as a 73% favorite (-270 implied odds), so I'm essentially aligned on the moneyline, but Mesquita isn't the type of fighter to lay big juice on; bet her to win dominantly; her -7.5 point spread is -160, and Over 1.5 takedowns is even money.
You can even pair that with a small bet on Mesquita to win by decision (projected +372, listed +460). Still, if Mesquita gets to the positions she needs to win clear minutes, she's almost too good a pure grappler relative to her UFC opponents not to find a finish.
If Chiasson keeps it competitive early, I'd also look to bet Mesquita live after Round 1 against a fading opponent.
Bets
Bia Mesquita -7.5 Points (-160, 0.1u), Caesars; bet to -185
Bia Mesquita, Over 1.5 Takedowns (+100, 0.2u), DraftKings; bet to -125
Melquizael Costa moves up from featherweight to face Jared Gordon after a decision loss to Arnold Allen in May, following back-to-back first-round knockouts over Dan Ige and Morgan Charriere. Gordon has lost two straight (a Round 3 knockout loss to Rafa Garcia and a Round 1 submission loss to Jim Miller).
Costa is 8 years younger with a 3" reach advantage, and his body kicks set up his head kicks well against a hittable opponent (Gordon's head defense is 63%). Overall, though, the distance striking numbers are close (+1.5 strike differential per minute for Gordon, +1.1 for Costa).
Gordon should hold the grappling edge; he has won the grappling battle in 11 of 15 UFC fights and controlled opponents for 34% of his fight time. Costa has been controlled 32% of the time and won the grappling in just two of nine fights. Still, Costa has a dangerous guillotine (0.84 submission attempts per 15 minutes), and Gordon just shot into one against Miller.
The pair share one common opponent: Gordon knocked out Thiago Moises in Round 1 in 2025, while Moises took Costa down four times and submitted him in Round 2 in 2023.
They pace their fights oppositely. Costa is a fast starter (70% of first rounds won, +2.4 per minute) who levels off by Round 3 (-0.1), while Gordon has won 83% of his second rounds (+3.0 per minute) after even first rounds (+0.1).
I projected Costa at -281, so I see value on the underdog moneyline (projected +281, listed +310) or point spread (+3.5, +200), but you'll almost certainly get a better price on the former if you wait five minutes.
Gordon is my top live target on the card; if he drops the opening round on the feet, the later-round output favors him, and similarly situated fighters historically win Round 3 on strike volume 44% of the time, compared to 35% for all fighters who lost Round 1.
Bets
Jared Gordon (+3.5 Points, +200, 0.1u), DraftKings; bet to +190
Donte Johnson is 3-0 in the UFC (a Round 2 submission over Sedriques Dumas, a split decision over Cody Brundage, and a Round 1 knockout of Eric McConico). At the same time, Cesar Almeida has lost two straight, including a Round 1 knockout loss to Damian Pinas in July.
Almeida is 5" taller with the same 74" reach, but is nearly 11 years older (38.6 to 27.8). He is the more technical kickboxer and spreads his attacks evenly (39% head, 36% body, 25% legs), but the striking differentials are close (+1.2 per minute for Almeida, +1.0 for Johnson). Johnson's head strike defense (75%) has been far better than Almeida's (53%) in a small sample.
Durability is another layer on top of the substantial age gap; Almeida has been dropped or stopped in half of his UFC bouts, including a first-round knockout against Damian Pinas in July, while Johnson has never tasted defeat. He's also now the "A" side of this fight, after his originally scheduled bout with fellow unbeaten prospect Baisangur Susurkaev was canceled.
Johnson should also hold a substantial grappling edge (29% control rate); Almeida has been controlled for half of his UFC fight time. That said, Johnson isn't a polished grappler himself; Brundage controlled him for over four minutes in their split decision, after Johnson closed as a -950 favorite.
I projected Johnson at -168, right on the market, and the distance prop is close, too (projected 33%, listed 30%). I don't see any actionable edges on the side, total, or winning method props for this bout, but Johnson needs to grapple to cover his price tag, and his takedown prop sitting at 0.5 is far too short; I thought it might get posted at 2.5.
Bets
Donte Johnson Over 0.5 Takedowns (-135, 0.25u), DraftKings; bet to 1.5
Donte Johnson Over 0.5 Takedowns (-150, 0.1u), DraftKings; bet to -155
If UFC fights were two minutes long, Terrance McKinney might be the lightweight champion. He has never won a UFC fight that lasted beyond 2:17; his professional fights average 2.5 minutes, and 86% of them have ended in Round 1. He's reached Round 2 just four times in his career, losing in the second round on three occasions.
Jim Miller will make his 48th UFC walk at 43, after submitting Jared Gordon in Round 1 in May. McKinney is the bigger man (2" taller, 2" reach) and 11 years younger, but is coming off a loss to King Green in July.
The pair share two common opponents: Green beat both (Miller by decision, McKinney in a wild Round 1), and both men beat Erick Gonzalez by knockout.
McKinney is the far more dangerous striker (+3.2 strike differential per minute, 87% of strikes to the head, compared to -0.5 for Miller). Fighters with a striking differential edge that size (>3.0 per minute) have won around 71% of the time against an average implied probability of 62 over the past five years. Still, McKinney's own head defense (50%) is porous, and he gasses himself out quickly; he's been dropped or stopped in 46% of his UFC fights (four knockout and two submission losses), compared to 11% for Miller.
McKinney also likes to wrestle (3 takedowns per 15 minutes, 45% control rate), and Miller's takedown defense is just 48%; however, every takedown puts McKinney in the guard of a fighter with a nasty guillotine, and 14 UFC submission wins (1.7 attempts per 15 minutes).
I projected McKinney at -210 (67.8%), close to the market, and I project his KO/TKO odds at +112, and his finish odds at -165, compared to listed odds of +130 and -190, respectively.
Given how quickly his fights end, I'll take McKinney to win by KO/TKO in Round 1 at +170; that's roughly a fair price if 80% of his knockout equity comes in the opening round, and I think you can push that to +150 (closer to 85% of his KO equity in Round 1). Additionally, you can bet a Same Game Parlay (SGP) with McKinney by KO/TKO and Under 0.5 Rounds at +425, down to +300.
I'd avoid McKinney's submission prop, which I believe the market is overpricing.
And if Miller survives the first round – or even the first 2.5 minutes – be ready to fire on the veteran live.
Bets
Terrance McKinney wins by KO/TKO in Round 1 (+170, 0.2u), FanDuel; bet to +150
SGP: Terrance McKinney and Under 0.5 Rounds (+425, 0.1u), DraftKings; bet to +300
Chris Duncan enters off a loss in his first main event in April to Renato Moicano, while Drew Dober has won two straight by knockout (Kyle Prepolec in Round 3, Michael Johnson in Round 2) after looking like his legendary chin was finally cracking.
Duncan is 2" taller, has a 1" reach advantage, and is 4.5 years younger, but Dober may have the positional advantage in an orthodox-vs.-southpaw matchup; he's 5-4 against southpaws in the UFC, with all of those wins coming by KO/TKO: Michael Johnson (R2, 2026), Kyle Prepolec (R3, 2025), Ricky Glenn (R1, 2023), Nasrat Haqparast (R1, 2020), Jason Gonzalez (R1, 2016).
These two have plenty of common ground. Moicano beat both men (Dober by decision with three takedowns and 10:33 of control time; Duncan by Round 2 submission), Manuel Torres knocked out both in Round 1, and both beat Terrance McKinney in Round 1 (Dober by knockout, Duncan by submission).
The striking numbers are close (+0.37 per minute for Duncan, +0.15 for Dober), but Dober is the far more dangerous puncher (11 UFC knockout wins; he's dropped or stopped 57% of his UFC opponents). Duncan hasn't been dropped or stopped in eight UFC fights, but several opponents have wobbled him badly without officially putting him down.
Duncan should hold the grappling edge (2.8 takedowns per 15 minutes, 22% control rate, and a dangerous guillotine), against Dober's 58% takedown defense; Dober has spent 22% of his UFC fight time getting controlled.
Duncan also has the cardio edge: he's won all three of his UFC third rounds (+2.2 strike differential per minute), while Dober has won just 36% of his third rounds (-0.7).
The line has moved toward Duncan (-164 at open, now -185 to -188), and I projected him at -197, so I'm close to the market on the side, but I show enough room on prediction markets up to -185. However, I might prefer his takedown prop (Over 1.5, +100); if that hits, he should both cover his price tag and win the fight, and it's both cheaper and has more ways to win than the moneyline.
I also project this fight to reach a decision 30% of the time (+238), compared to 24% implied by listed odds (+315) – take that prop to +265 – and I like Duncan to win by decision (projected +351, listed +450) from those same moneyline and total projections.
If Duncan drops the first round on the feet, he's also worth a live bet; his late-round profile fits the same Round 3 comeback spot I like for Gordon (+9% expected win probability on scorecards in Round 3 relative to Round 1)
Bets
Chris Duncan, Over 1.5 Takedowns (+100, 0.2u), DraftKings; bet to -125
Chris Duncan wins by Decision (+470, 0.1u), Kalshi; bet to +400
Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson enters his retirement bout at 43 years old on a three-fight losing streak (a split decision against Gabriel Bonfim, a Round 3 knockout loss to Joaquin Buckley, and a Round 2 submission loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov), after a 16-month layoff.
Charles Radtke has won two straight (a Round 3 submission over Daniel Frunza and a decision over Francisco Prado), and his only UFC losses came via knockout against Mike Malott and Carlos Prates.
Thompson is the bigger man (3" taller, 3" reach) and has outlanded 16 of his 22 UFC opponents (+1.0 strike differential per minute). He also throws more as fights extend; his third-round output averages nearly double (190%) of his first-round output. Radtke is roughly even on the feet (+0.05 per minute), with 85% of his strikes aimed at the head – and Wonderboy is notoriously difficult to track down at distance.
Radtke's path is grappling. He's controlled opponents for 51% of his UFC fight time, hasn't conceded a takedown, and landed four takedowns with more than nine minutes of control against Prado – a win that has aged well. Thompson's takedown defense has leaked for years: Gilbert Burns landed three, Belal Muhammad seven, Kevin Holland two (and could have had more if he tried), Buckley four, and Bonfim five.
The line has moved slightly toward Thompson (-141 at open, now -152 to -155), and I projected him at -143, so I'm aligned.
Instead, I see an edge on Radtke to spoil the party and win by decision (projected +359, listed +410) and, given Thompson's lack of finishes, to at least cover his point spread (+3.5, -150) with one round of effective grappling.
Still, if Radtke banks the opening round on control, Thompson's second and third rounds (+1.4 and +1.7 strike differential per minute) have been far better than Radtke's third rounds (-1.0), and I'd look for a live entry on the veteran after Round 1, even at his age.
Bets
Charles Radtke +3.5 (-150, 0.1u), Caesars; bet to -185
Charles Radtke wins by Decision (+400, 0.1u), Kalshi; bet to +375
Check out my colleague Billy Ward's write-up on Hasan vs. Gurule.
Bilal Hasan (10-0, 1 NC) is 1-0 in the UFC after a Round 2 knockout of Nilson Rojas (as a -950 favorite) in August. Luis Gurule is 1-4 in the UFC and was submitted by Rei Tsuruya in Round 1 in May, and Saturday's bout will mark his fourth of the calendar year and fifth in 14 months.
Hasan is the bigger man (2" taller, 6" reach), 7.7 years younger, and a switch-stance striker who should control range. Gurule has outlanded just one of his five UFC opponents (-0.6 strike differential per minute) and has never landed more than one takedown in a UFC fight; he also faded after wrestling early against Ode Osbourne.
The market has moved roughly six percent toward Hasan since open, and I project him as an 88.3% favorite (-756 implied), so his moneyline is no longer playable (-900 or higher marketwide. Still, the market is pricing in far too many quick finishes.
Hasan is even money to win in Round 1, compared to +300 in Round 2 and +750 in Round 3, and if I were betting this fight, I'd play some iteration of his late-round props, but I don't necessarily see anything that would force my hand, and I'm inclined to pass.
Check out my colleague John LanFranca's write-up on Medic vs. Holland.
Uros Medic has never been to a decision in his professional career – he's kill or be killed. Medic is riding four consecutive first-round knockouts (Gilbert Urbina, Muslim Salikhov, Geoff Neal, and Daniel Rodriguez in August) amid an 8-3 promotional run. His UFC fights average 3.8 minutes, and seven have ended in Round 1; his UFC losses came via a Round 1 knockout to Punahele Soriano and submissions to Myktybek Orolbai and Jalin Turner.
Kevin Holland is the bigger man (2" taller, with a massive 10" reach advantage), and he beat Randy Brown by decision in April after decision losses to Mike Malott and Rodriguez. He's very difficult to put away; six of his last 10 fights went the distance, and he's been dropped or stopped in just 14% of his UFC bouts (a ground-and-pound loss to Roman Dolidze and an injury TKO loss to Stephen Thompson).
The pair share two common opponents. Medic knocked out Rodriguez in Round 1 (outlanding him 11-1), while Holland lost a decision to him (outlanding him 82-77 but ceding 3.5 minutes of control). And Medic knocked out Tim Means in Round 1, while Holland submitted him in Round 2.
Medic is a front-running southpaw (+1.8 strike differential per minute; 68% of strikes to the head) who has dropped or stopped 83% of his UFC opponents. Holland is more balanced (+0.9 per minute, 27% of strikes to the legs), but his head defense (60%) leaves him open to Medic's straight left.
Neither man controls opponents much (4% for Medic, 13% for Holland), but Holland's submission game (0.6 attempts per 15 minutes; finishes over Vicente Luque, Michal Oleksiejczuk, Michael Chiesa and Means) is the grappling edge, and Medic has already been submitted twice in the octagon.
Holland opened at +144 and sits around the same number, and I projected him at +138, so I'm aligned on the moneyline; I'd take Holland closer to +150, or bet his point spread (+7.5, -110). Still, I expect this fight to reach a decision 24% of the time, compared to 20% implied at +400, and I like the distance prop to +350.
I also show a correlated edge on Holland to win by decision (projected +781, listed +1000), while Medic's knockout prop (projected +144, listed +108) is overpriced.
Still, I'd prefer to bet Holland live after five minutes; even though his third-round output drops off relative to Round 1 (76%), Medic fades hard if he cannot get opponents out of there early.
Bets
Kevin Holland +7.5 Points (-110, 0.1u), DraftKings; bet to -125
Kevin Holland wins by Decision (+1075, 0.05u), Kalshi; bet to +950
Fight Goes to Decision (+400, 0.1u), Caesars; bet to +350
Check out my colleague Billy Ward's write-up on Borralho vs. Belgaroui.
Caio Borralho (8-1 in the UFC) beat Reinier de Ridder by decision in March, and his only UFC loss was a decision against Nassourdine Imavov. Yousri Belgaroui is 3-0 in the UFC with three knockouts (Azamat Bekoev and Mansur Abdul-Malik in Round 3, Djorden Santos in Round 1 in September).
Belgaroui is the bigger man (5" taller, 4" reach) and the better kickboxer. He's been dominant on the feet (+6.4 strike differential per minute, outlanding Bekoev 102-24 and Abdul-Malik 94-16), albeit in just 29 UFC minutes, and he's dropped or stopped all three of his promotional opponents. Borralho (+0.7 per minute) wins at distance by minimizing volume rather than outlanding opponents; he doesn't have big power, but he has elite durability.
Borralho has won the grappling battle in all eight of his UFC fights where grappling was a factor, and he controls opponents 27% of the time. Belgaroui has given up takedowns (four to Bekoev, three to Abdul-Malik) and has been controlled for 19% of his fight time, with 56% takedown defense against far fewer grapplers than Borralho.
The question is whether Borralho will commit to wrestling. He has drifted away from his takedowns in recent fights, and he tends to try one shot before bailing (he hasn't landed 2+ takedowns in his past five fights); if he doesn't grapple, he's giving up a lot of length. Still, his southpaw stance can take away Belgaroui's calf kick, and the Dutch kickboxer hasn't faced a grappler at this level.
I align with the moneyline and totals on this fight. However, I would lean slightly towards the fight ending inside the distance (projected +142, listed +145) given Belgaroui's immense power and any matchup and potential grappling deficiency in this bout in particular.
I don't project an edge on any winning-method props, either, but I would consider betting Caio Over 1.5 takedowns (-150) at roughly the same number as his moneyline; he's not winning the fight without effective grappling, and it removes the grappling-vs.-damage optics from the equation.
Bets
Caio Borralho, Over 1.5 Takedowns (-150, 0.2u), DraftKings; bet to -185
Caio Borralho, Under 45.5 Significant Strikes (-115, 0.1u), DraftKings; bet to 41.5
Check out my colleague Dan Tom's write-up on Harrison vs. Nunes.
Amanda Nunes returns from a 41-month retirement (her last fight was a decision over Irene Aldana in June 2023) to challenge Kayla Harrison for the bantamweight title. Harrison is 3-0 in the UFC (Round 2 submission over Holly Holm, decision over Ketlen Vieira, and a Round 2 submission of Julianna Pena to win the belt in June 2025), and she's been out for 17 months following neck surgery.
They're the same height, Nunes has a 3" reach advantage and is two years older, and it's a southpaw vs. orthodox matchup. Nunes opened at +159, and the line has barely moved.
The pair have two common opponents. Harrison submitted Pena in Round 2, while Nunes lost to Pena by Round 2 submission in 2021 before beating her by decision in the rematch with six takedowns. Harrison submitted Holm in Round 2 (outlanding her 51-2), while Nunes knocked out Holm in Round 1 in 2019.
This is a relatively binary fight. Harrison has landed two takedowns in every UFC fight, with six to eight minutes of control time in each, 59% control overall, and she's never been taken down. Nunes has excellent takedown defense (81%) and has been controlled for just 6% of her UFC fight time. Still, her late-career wins came via her own wrestling (six takedowns each against Aldana and Pena), and that offense likely won't translate against an Olympic judoka.
On the feet, Nunes is the far more dangerous fighter. She's outlanded 16 of her 18 UFC opponents (+2.1 strike differential per minute) and dropped or stopped 30% of them, compared to a 9% divisional average; Harrison (+3.2 per minute in three UFC fights) has zero UFC knockdowns or knockouts and has relatively limited striking.
Nunes has also won 18 of 18 first rounds in the UFC (+4.1 differential per minute). Her second rounds even out (-0.1), but she's won 83% of her fourth and fifth rounds, while Harrison has won every round she's fought beyond Round 1 in the UFC.
I projected Harrison as a 61.2% favorite (-158 implied odds), so I don't show value on either side of the moneyline. However, I expect this fight to reach a decision 42% of the time, and I'd target the distance prop (projected +139, listed +165) at +150, or alternatively target Nunes to win by decision (projected +479, listed +550) at +500.
I'd also monitor this fight live on both sides; target Harrison Live after Round 1 and Nunes live after Round 2, and you might be able to get plus money on both sides.
Bets
Amanda Nunes wins by Decision (+616, 0.1u), Kalshi; bet to +500
Kayla Harrison Under 2.5 Takedowns (-115, 0.1u), DraftKings; bet to -150
Kayla Harrison Live after Round 1 /Â Amanda Nunes Live after Round 2
For more information, including a full statistical breakdown of Saturday's main event, check out my full fight preview.
In short, I projected Ciryl Gane as a 64.3% favorite (-180 implied odds) in this matchup, and I expect the bout to reach a decision 31% of the time (+226 implied odds). As a result, I align with both the side and total markets for Saturday's main event, and I don't project an edge on any winning method props, either. Gane by decision (projected +389, listed +400 at best) is closest, but doesn't show enough of an edge to make the bet actionable.
Instead, I'm targeting the stat props.
Hokit lands 1.5 takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC (50% accuracy), but may be more proactive here, since he has to wrestle to win this matchup. Hokit has spent 28% of his UFC fight time in control (Gane 9%), and Gane's takedown defense (47%) is the clear hole in his game; Francis Ngannou took him down four times, Jon Jones twice, and Alexander Volkov three times in their rematch. Hokit Over 1.5 takedowns is my favorite prop on this card.
Gane has outlanded all 14 of his UFC opponents (+3.1 strike differential per minute) and needs only 12 minutes at his career pace (5.4 landed per minute) to clear his significant strike total, so I'll play his Over 62.5 Significant Strikes. I'll also take a smaller position on Hokit's Over 48.5 Significant Strikes, given his pace in a limited sample; Hokit tends to force action by refusing to step back in the cage.
Lastly, if Hokit wins any early minutes, note that Gane has been at his best in the second (91% of rounds won, +4.1 per minute) and third rounds (+4.5), and I'd bet the champion live after Round 1 or Round 2.
Bets
Josh Hokit Over 1.5 Takedowns (-105, 0.3u), DraftKings; bet to -150
Ciryl Gane Over 62.5 Significant Strikes (-115, 0.1u), DraftKings; bet to 70
Josh Hokit Over 48.5 Significant Strikes (-115, 0.1u), DraftKings; bet to 55
Samuel Sanches (-115, 0.5u), DraftKings; bet to -130
Prop Bets, Totals
Juan Diaz wins by Decision (+100, 0.25u), Kalshi; bet to -110
Juan Diaz Over 1.5 Takedowns (-115, 0.15u), Caesars; bet to -135
Bia Mesquita -7.5 Points (-160, 0.1u), Caesars; bet to -185
Bia Mesquita, Over 1.5 Takedowns (+100, 0.2u), DraftKings; bet to -125
Jared Gordon (+3.5 Points, +200, 0.1u), DraftKings; bet to +190
Donte Johnson Over 0.5 Takedowns (-135, 0.25u), DraftKings; bet to 1.5
Donte Johnson Over 0.5 Takedowns (-150, 0.1u), DraftKings; bet to -155
Terrance McKinney wins by KO/TKO in Round 1 (+170, 0.2u), FanDuel; bet to +150
Chris Duncan, Over 1.5 Takedowns (+100, 0.2u), DraftKings; bet to -125
Chris Duncan wins by Decision (+470, 0.1u), Kalshi; bet to +400
Charles Radtke +3.5 Points (-150, 0.1u), Caesars; bet to -185
Charles Radtke wins by Decision (+400, 0.1u), Kalshi; bet to +375
Kevin Holland +7.5 Points (-110, 0.1u), DraftKings; bet to -125
Kevin Holland wins by Decision (+1075, 0.05u), Kalshi; bet to +950
Holland/Medic, Fight Goes to Decision (+400, 0.1u), Caesars; bet to +350
Caio Borralho, Over 1.5 Takedowns (-150, 0.2u), DraftKings; bet to -185
Caio Borralho, Under 45.5 Significant Strikes (-115, 0.1u), DraftKings; bet to 41.5
Amanda Nunes wins by Decision (+616, 0.1u), Kalshi; bet to +500
Kayla Harrison Under 2.5 Takedowns (-115, 0.1u), DraftKings; bet to -150
Josh Hokit Over 1.5 Takedowns (-105, 0.3u), DraftKings; bet to -130
Ciryl Gane Over 62.5 Significant Strikes (-115, 0.1u), DraftKings; bet to 70
Josh Hokit Over 48.5 Significant Strikes (-115, 0.1u), DraftKings; bet to 55
Parlays
SGP: Terrance McKinney and Under 0.5 Rounds (+425, 0.1u), DraftKings; bet to +300
Live Bets
Samuel Sanches Live after Round 1
Bia Mesquita Live after Round 1
Jared Gordon Live after Round 1
Jim Miller Live after Round 1
Chris Duncan Live after Round 1
Stephen Thompson Live after Round 1
Kevin Holland Live after Round 1
Kayla Harrison Live after Round 1 /Â Amanda Nunes Live after Round 2
Ciryl Gane Live after Round 1
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About the Author
Sean graduated from the University of Miami and Hofstra University Law School, later passing the New York State Bar Exam in 2014. He shifted from a legal career to sports data and betting, joining the Action Network in 2019 after working as a baseball video scout and in financial regulatory compliance. As a senior writer and betting analyst, Sean provides MLB and MMA projections using proprietary models and contributes to various digital content and podcasts, becoming a leading expert in betting for baseball, MMA, and horse racing.
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