Check out my Donte Johnson vs Cesar Almeida prediction for UFC 334 on Saturday, November 14, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Donte Johnson vs Cesar Almeida Odds
| Johnson Odds | -185 |
| Almeida Odds | +154 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-135 / +105) |
| Location | Madison Square Garden, New York City |
| Bout Time | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 334 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 334 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Here's my Johnson vs. Almeida pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
Johnson vs. Almeida Pick, Prediction
Donte Johnson is 3-0 in the UFC (a Round 2 submission over Sedriques Dumas, a split decision over Cody Brundage, and a Round 1 knockout of Eric McConico). At the same time, Cesar Almeida has lost two straight, including a Round 1 knockout loss to Damian Pinas in July.
Almeida is 5" taller with the same 74" reach, but is nearly 11 years older (38.6 to 27.8). He is the more technical kickboxer and spreads his attacks evenly (39% head, 36% body, 25% legs), but the striking differentials are close (+1.2 per minute for Almeida, +1.0 for Johnson). Johnson's head strike defense (75%) has been far better than Almeida's (53%) in a small sample.
Durability is another layer on top of the substantial age gap; Almeida has been dropped or stopped in half of his UFC bouts, including a first-round knockout against Damian Pinas in July, while Johnson has never tasted defeat. He's also now the "A" side of this fight, after his originally scheduled bout with fellow unbeaten prospect Baisangur Susurkaev was canceled.
Johnson should also hold a substantial grappling edge (29% control rate); Almeida has been controlled for half of his UFC fight time. That said, Johnson isn't a polished grappler himself; Brundage controlled him for over four minutes in their split decision, after Johnson closed as a -950 favorite.
I projected Johnson at -168, right on the market, and the distance prop is close, too (projected 33%, listed 30%). I don't see any actionable edges on the side, total, or winning method props for this bout, but Johnson needs to grapple to cover his price tag, and his takedown prop sitting at 0.5 is far too short; I thought it might get posted at 2.5.
Zerillo Picks: Donte Johnson Over 0.5 Takedowns (-135, 0.25u), DraftKings; bet to 1.5 / Donte Johnson Over 0.5 Takedowns (-150, 0.1u), DraftKings; bet to -155
