Check out my Jared Gordon vs Melquizael Costa prediction for UFC 334 on Saturday, November 14, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Jared Gordon vs Melquizael Costa Odds
| Gordon Odds | +300 |
| Costa Odds | -380 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+110 / -140) |
| Location | Madison Square Garden, New York City |
| Bout Time | 6:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 334 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 334 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Here's my Gordon vs. Costa pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
Gordon vs. Costa Pick, Prediction
Melquizael Costa moves up from featherweight to face Jared Gordon after a decision loss to Arnold Allen in May, following back-to-back first-round knockouts over Dan Ige and Morgan Charriere. Gordon has lost two straight (a Round 3 knockout loss to Rafa Garcia and a Round 1 submission loss to Jim Miller).
Costa is 8 years younger with a 3" reach advantage, and his body kicks set up his head kicks well against a hittable opponent (Gordon's head defense is 63%). Overall, though, the distance striking numbers are close (+1.5 strike differential per minute for Gordon, +1.1 for Costa).
Gordon should hold the grappling edge; he has won the grappling battle in 11 of 15 UFC fights and controlled opponents for 34% of his fight time. Costa has been controlled 32% of the time and won the grappling in just two of nine fights. Still, Costa has a dangerous guillotine (0.84 submission attempts per 15 minutes), and Gordon just shot into one against Miller.
The pair share one common opponent: Gordon knocked out Thiago Moises in Round 1 in 2025, while Moises took Costa down four times and submitted him in Round 2 in 2023.
They pace their fights oppositely. Costa is a fast starter (70% of first rounds won, +2.4 per minute) who levels off by Round 3 (-0.1), while Gordon has won 83% of his second rounds (+3.0 per minute) after even first rounds (+0.1).
I projected Costa at -281, so I see value on the underdog moneyline (projected +281, listed +310) or point spread (+3.5, +200), but you'll almost certainly get a better price on the former if you wait five minutes.
Gordon is my top live target on the card; if he drops the opening round on the feet, the later-round output favors him, and similarly situated fighters historically win Round 3 on strike volume 44% of the time, compared to 35% for all fighters who lost Round 1
Zerillo's Picks:
- Jared Gordon (+3.5 Points, +200, 0.1u), DraftKings; bet to +190
- Jared Gordon Live after Round 1
