Check out my Kayla Harrison vs. Amanda Nunes prediction for UFC 334 on Saturday, November 14, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Kayla Harrison vs. Amanda Nunes Odds
| Harrison Odds | -192 |
| Nunes Odds | +160 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (+105 / -135) |
| Location | Madison Square Garden, New York City |
| Bout Time | 10:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 334 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 334 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
The co-headliner in Madison Square Garden features a superfight for the women's bantamweight title between current champion Kayla Harrison and former champion Amanda Nunes.
Harrison, who was last seen in her title-winning performance opposite Julianna Pena back at UFC 316, was forced to withdraw from the initial booking of this bout earlier this year. Nunes, on the other hand, is coming off a three-plus-year layoff since retiring off of a unanimous decision win over Irene Aldana back in 2023.
Both women have also shared training grounds at American Top Team, which is the place where their rivalry started.
Here's my Harrison vs. Nunes pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Harrison | Nunes | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-1 | 23-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:34 | 10:44 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 66" | 69" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 7/02/1990 | 5/30/1988 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.29 | 4.55 |
| SS Accuracy | 62% | 51% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 1.10 | 2.62 |
| SS Defense | 66% | 57% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.84 | 2.73 |
| TD Acc | 37% | 54% |
| TD Def | 100% | 82% |
| Submission Avg | 0.9 | 0.7 |
From a stylistic perspective, this fight features two incredibly physical fighters who employ their strengths in completely different ways.
Harrison, who was a two-time Olympic gold medalist in judo, funnels her athleticism and skill set into a fairly straightforward approach.
Although you could still characterize her striking as a means to an end, Harrison utilizes some savvy southpaw tactics on the feet. Whether Harrison is counter-balancing her kicks with crosses or stepping through into shifting combinations, the current champ has done a better job at disguising her offensive intentions through feints and a more active lead hand.
Akin to other judokas who have transitioned into MMA, Harrison has familiarized herself with more traditional takedown options like level-changing doubles along the fence. That said, Harrison still gets the lion's share of her takedowns through sneaky foot sweeps and tosses from the clinch.
Once Harrison can ground her opponent, she shows a solid process from topside that involves positional riding and strikes for advancement. Harrison works particularly well from half-guard, showing heavy shoulder pressure and an ability to push to full or quarter mount variations.
Luckily for Nunes, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt is no slouch on the floor.
Despite suffering some notable defeats that ended on the ground, Nunes has made some serious strides in her MMA wrestling and grappling in the latter stages of her career. Not only has Nunes demonstrated some excellent takedown defense in the open, but the judo brown belt can also comport herself well in the clinch.
Whether she's working off of collar ties or over-unders, Nunes displays good awareness of her hips and has a knack for punishing her opponent's takedown attempts.
Nunes has also made major strides in her striking over the years, coming a long way from her days as a wild brawler. Not only can Nunes competently strike and counter from both stances, but the Brazilian has also improved her circling footwork and shot selection alike.
From hard calf kicks to brutal bodywork, seldom will you see Nunes lost for ideas on the feet.
Harrison vs. Nunes Pick, Prediction
The oddsmakers and the public favor the American fighter, listing Harrison -166 and Nunes +140 as of this writing.
Considering that Harrison is the more active fighter who carries a solid on-paper skill set to defeat Nunes, I can't say that I'm shocked to see the sitting champ favored in this spot. In fact, if this fight went down when it was supposed to back in January, my official pick would be more in line with the betting spread above.
But with Harrison being forced to withdraw from their first meeting due to a neck and spinal injury that required serious surgery, I suspect that the playing field of intangibles is nearly equal when you factor in that Harrison already walks a fine line with the inhuman weight cuts she endures to make 135 lbs.
I ultimately picked Nunes for her ability to counter kicks and takedowns en route to punishing opponents with right hands – all of which are common culprits for Harrison. However, between the underdog number I got earlier in the week no longer being available and the fact that Nunes could also combust whether she's rusty or not, I find myself really liking the under 3.5 rounds prop in the totals market.
Akin to the main event, this fight is a potent two-way street when it comes to stylistic kryptonite and action alike. Whether it's Harrison cooking Nunes on the floor or it's Nunes hurting Harrison on the feet, I believe that this fight funnels into a finish, one way or another.
If you're looking for a +2000 flier, I think that Nunes could win by submission in a club-and-sub scenario, especially when you consider the unknowns with Harrison's neck (e.g., Glover Teixeira getting a quick tap from Jan Blachowicz after cranking on his previously injured neck). That said, I feel like the under is the safest bet on the board and is playable at any number south of -150.
Dan's Picks: Under 3.5 Rounds -135 (DraftKings)
