Cub Swanson vs. Nate Landwehr Odds
| Swanson Odds | -112 |
| Landwehr Odds | -108 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-120/-110) |
| Location | Kaseya Center, Miami, Florida |
| Bout Time | 9:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 327 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 327 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Cub Swanson vs. Nate Landwehr prediction for UFC 327 on Saturday, April 11, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
WEC and UFC legend Cub Swanson will open the main card in his retirement fight against Nate Landwehr. Now at 42 years of age, Swanson will attempt to ride off into the sunset with a victory in a bout that almost assuredly will feature an abundance of action in front of a hot crowd. Oddsmakers have lined this matchup a near pick em’ on the moneyline, but this clearly presents some value, as I will take my chances fading recency bias in this spot.
Here's my Swanson vs. Landwehr pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Swanson | Landwehr | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 30-14 | 18-7 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:41 | 9:52 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'9" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 11/02/1983 | 6/06/1988 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.79 | 5.63 |
| SS Accuracy | 51% | 45% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.00 | 5.83 |
| SS Defense | 59% | 52% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.01 | 0.76 |
| TD Acc | 50% | 41% |
| TD Def | 63% | 71% |
| Submission Avg | 0.4 | 0.8 |
Nate ‘The Train’ Landwehr has consistently brought an exciting style to the octagon during his UFC tenure. He may start slow at times, but after he gets hit a few times and takes some damage, the fight truly starts. His relentless pressure and pace have overwhelmed opponents, even when he is seemingly at a technical disadvantage, which many will say he is once again in his quest to spoil Swanson’s last UFC appearance.
Swanson has consistently relied on his boxing skills and hand speed to get the job done and has cemented his legendary status along the way. He has never turned down a brawl, and continues to surprise opponents with his timing and use of angles.
His speed has diminished so slowly as he has aged, it's virtually negligible from his peak striking ability. His most recent fight was yet another spectacular knockout victory over a game Billy Quarantillo. The problem is, many are expecting him to be able to recreate his form from that bout, but another 17 months have passed and it is more than fair to question if he can continue to be the same type of fighter.
Swanson was the less active fighter in his win over Quarantillo and he was taken down three times in the first two rounds, which is a concern going into this fight with Landwehr. Landwehr doesn’t necessarily move forward with the intent to grapple, but we have seen him use his timing and pressure to drag opponents to the mat as he did in his wins over Ludovit Klein, David Onama and Austin Lingo.
Swanson has always used footwork and athleticism to negate takedowns, as he was only taken down once in seven fights between 2019 and 2023. However, he has been unsuccessful in defending the takedown on five occasions over his last two fights, and he continues to subtlety slow down.
In addition to the threat of the takedown, I expect a more measured approach by Landwehr that features an early barrage of kicks to get himself into the fight. Swanson has struggled at times to defend kicks, and Landwehr has seemingly been inconsistent in attempting them, but will when the gameplan calls for them. Landwehr landed 19 of 24 leg kicks against Lingo, and 12 of 15 in his destruction of Klein.
Damaging Swanson to the leg and body will pay dividends when Landwehr ultimately turns up the heat in rounds two and three. Swanson may even land more cleanly in the judges’ eyes in round one and take it on the scorecards, but I can see Landwehr setting up the damage for the certain latter-round surge. For this reason I will also be playing Landwehr to win and round 3 to begin at +201 for a smaller amount in addition to my main position below.
Swanson vs. Landwehr Pick, Prediction
The consensus on social media is that Cub Swanson will catch Landwehr coming in on too many occasions and be the third consecutive man to finish him due to strikes. Too many bettors are under the assumption a 42 year-old fighter will be able to maintain the exact form we last saw him. Oddsmakers are dangling underdog money in front of casual bettors and they are gladly taking it.
Nearly 80% of bettors of backing under 2.5 rounds and between 75% and 80% of moneyline bettors are taking the aging trendy underdog – what could go wrong? It wouldn’t surprise me to see Landwehr at an even better number present itself throughout the day on Saturday as bets continue to pour in on Cub, but I am willing to lock him in now at -115 or better.
I expect Nate “The Train” to spoil the party by weathering the early storm, and getting the type of fight he has historically thrived in. He will bring a more varied attack, and test Swanson’s cardio at his advanced age. Landwehr’s demise has been exaggerated and he’ll bounce-back in this spot to open the main card at UFC 327.
John's Picks: Nate Landwehr -108 (DraftKings)
