Dominick Reyes vs. Johnny Walker Odds
| Reyes Odds | -148 |
| Walker Odds | +124 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (+145/-188) |
| Location | Kaseya Center, Miami, Florida |
| Bout Time | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 327 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 327 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Dominick Reyes vs. Johnny Walker prediction for UFC 327 on Saturday, April 11, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
The matchmakers are trying their absolute best to provide fireworks on the UFC 327 main card by putting Dominick Reyes and Johnny Walker in the cage together. You’d be hard-pressed to find two ranked fighters in the entire organization that would rise to the level of volatility that this fight brings to the table. With all of the value extracted from the under and early knockout props, let’s dig into the creative manner in which I am wagering on this one.
Here's my Reyes vs. Walker pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Reyes | Walker | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-5 | 22-9 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 7:21 | 6:47 |
| Height | 6'4" | 6'6" |
| Weight (pounds) | 205 lbs. | 205 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 77" | 82" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/26/1989 | 3/30/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.39 | 4.06 |
| SS Accuracy | 54% | 55% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.49 | 3.09 |
| SS Defense | 49% | 45% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| TD Acc | 28% | 60% |
| TD Def | 82% | 57% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 0.8 |
It is not often in MMA where you would have to lay juice on a fight ending by knockout in the first round, but that is what we are looking at here in this light heavyweight clash. Not that it is hard to understand why. Dominick Reyes has famously been on a career roller coaster, since almost doing the impossible and defeating Jon Jones back in 2020.
Reyes has all of the athletic tools and offensive firepower to be champion, but his durability has failed him; albeit, three of his four knockout losses have come against a former UFC Champion and the two men fighting in the main event on Saturday night. Reyes has the size, power and southpaw stance to threaten just about anybody in the division with his offensive prowess.
Reyes will have a decided edge as a boxer and is a better counter-striker than Walker. He can build combinations with a varied striking attack, but at this stage of his career, it is becoming more unlikely he can afford to risk overextending himself. Handicapping that part of his approach is exactly half of the foundation in which I am basing my bet on this bout.
The other half is the change in approach for Walker. Walker’s chin has historically been very fragile and his coaches realize his career wasn’t long for the Octagon if he continued to test his opponents by exchanging strikes at kickboxing range. In his last fight, Walker shot for a takedown in the opening seconds against Zhang Mingyang. While he was unsuccessful in that attempt , he forced Mingyang against the cage at the first opportunity when both fighters were on their feet.
Additionally, Walker circled his opponent when they were in kickboxing range and opted to use a kick-heavy approach, going 13 for 13 on leg kicks until Mingyang hurt himself trying to respond with a calf kick of his own. Walker did have moments of wild explosive attacks, but in totality, it was clear he was more patient and more defensively sound than we have seen in previous appearances.
Walker’s blend of skills bring a level of volatility to any fight he participates in, but you cannot ignore the fact that he has the power to put away Reyes. Given where both men are in their careers, it would be shocking if either came out especially aggressive. I expect Walker to try and initiate grappling exchanges, even if that means just clinching with Reyes and pressing him against the cage for short periods.
Both men are long for the division and will be standing at quite the distance from one another. For that reason, I actually like Walker in the early going to unleash his kicks with success. It will be Reyes who lacks in output in the early going, as he not only has to be cautious but he is more naturally reliant on counter-striking to land his power shots. This is the path for this fight to be extended, and I believe it is being underpriced considering the oddsmakers really do not have a choice but to insulate themselves from two highly fragile fighters.
Reyes vs. Walker Pick, Prediction
Make no mistake, any strike to the head can finish either man at any point, and there is really no telling who can take a punch more effectively at this stage. However, with this analysis common knowledge for MMA bettors, projecting the approach of the fighters is where we can find the most value.
If I am correct in my assessment of how the first five minutes will look, the fight ending specifically in round two becomes an immense value. I do not believe Walker has the grappling skills to corral the movement of Reyes, thus I am almost entirely ruling out a submission by either fighter. If this fight ends inside of the distance, it will be by knockout.
The fight ending by knockout in the 2nd frame is the first position I am taking and the second is an extension of my projection of the first round, in which Walker can maintain distance with his kicks, stymieing the output of a hesitant Reyes. The latter is the more unlikely of the two wagers in my estimation, so pay close attention to the smaller unit distribution I’ll be using to try in a difficult contest to handicap.
John's Picks: Fight to end in Round 2 by KO/TKO +460 (FanDuel) 0.5 units | Walker by decision +750 (DraftKings) 0.25u
