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Ian Garry vs. Darian Weeks UFC 273 Odds, Pick & Prediction: Is There Value on Either Side? (Saturday, April 9)

Ian Garry vs. Darian Weeks UFC 273 Odds, Pick & Prediction: Is There Value on Either Side? (Saturday, April 9) article feature image
Credit:

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC fighter Ian Garry.

Ian Garry vs. Darian Weeks Odds

Garry Odds
-400
Weeks Odds
+310
Over/Under
2.5 (+125 / -150)
Venue
VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena, Fla.
Time
Approx. 9:30 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN
Odds as of Saturday and via BetMGM.

Two relative newcomers, Ian Garry and Darian Weeks, will clash in the featured prelim at UFC 273. Both men have just one UFC fight under their respective belts, but the Irishman, Garry, is an overwhelming favorite in what could be a quick fight.

Below, I’ll provide my analysis and picks for Saturday’s matchup. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.

Tale of the Tape

Garry Weeks
Record 8-0 5-1
Avg. Fight Time 4:59 15:00
Height 6’3″ 5’11”
Weight (pounds) 170.5 lbs. 170.5 lbs.
Reach (inches) 74″ 72″
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Date of birth 11/17/97 11/23/93
Sig Strikes Per Min 3.61 7.87
SS Accuracy 64% 56%
SS Absorbed Per Min 4.41 7.20
SS Defense 56% 50%
Take Down Avg 0.0 4.00
TD Acc 0% 50%
TD Def 100% 0%
Submission Avg 0.0 0.0

The UFC is doing their best to push Garry but “The Future” is still a ways away from ranked competition, in my opinion.

That said, he’s only been fighting since 2015 (2019 professionally) and should start making substantial improvements while entering his physical prime with a new camp at Sanford MMA.

Garry closed as high as -450 for his debut against Jordan Williams at UFC 268 in New York but lost every minute of the fight until he landed a big step-back counter after Williams over-extended.

Just 23 years old and making his UFC debut at MSG, what a knockout from Ian Garry, smoked Jordan Williams into tomorrow. 🇮🇪 #UFC268 pic.twitter.com/223Nn30xTL

— Ryan (@Nosbig__) November 6, 2021

Weeks probably represents a step down in competition for Garry relative to that matchup.

He offers a ton of experience (18 amateur and six professional fights) and held his own in a short notice debut against Bryan Barberena last December.

Weeks is both more durable and offers better cardio compared to Williams. We may see Garry gain some valuable cage time in this fight, but I think the -400 price tag is more justifiable.

While Williams offered Garry some problems on the feet, Garry should have Weeks covered everywhere else.

Garry vs. Weeks Pick

According to my projection, you can get a fair price on Garry to win inside the distance (projected +101, listed -105 at DraftKings). Still, I suspect that Weeks may present a tougher out than Garry’s recent opponents, despite the potential skill gap.

There will be a time when I fade Garry, but this is not the spot for it.

The Pick: No Bet.

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