Check out my Peña vs. Harrison prediction for UFC 316 on Saturday, June 7.
Here's my Peña vs. Harrison prediction for tonight.
Julianna Peña vs. Kayla Harrison Odds
| Peña Odds | -310 |
| Harrison Odds | +250 |
| Over/Under | 4.5 Rounds (+154/-200) |
| Location | Prudential Center | Newark, New Jersey |
| Bout Time | 11:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 316 odds via DraftKings as of Friday. Bet on UFC 316 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Peña vs. Harrison Pick
For additional information on Saturday's co-main event and women's Bantamweight title bout, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out the full fight preview from my colleague, Billy Ward.
Peña will enter this fight at the second-highest underdog odds for a sitting champion in UFC history; Nicco Montano lost as a +925 underdog against Valentina Shevchenko at UFC 228. Harrison – a two-time Olympic gold medalist in Judo – is the much better athlete, and should have a significant grappling edge against Peña, who has denied just 23% of takedown attempts in her UFC career (prevented just two of eight takedown attempts and ceded 11:50 of control time in her rematch loss against Amanda Nunes.).
Still, Harrison – a former 155er in PFL who would compete at Featherweight if the UFC still had a 145-pound division- cuts a ton of weight to make 135; and this will be her first potential five-round test at Bantamweight. She slowed a bit in the third round of her fight against Ketlen Vieira. If she cannot finish Peña, who is both highly durable and has excellent cardio, Harrison could run into trouble in the championship rounds.
I project an edge on the fight to go to decision (projected 44%, +130) compared to the divisional average of 61% in three-round fights, and nearly 80% in five-round fights. And I show correlated value on either fighter to win by decision, setting Harrison at +188 and Peña at +1033, compared to listed odds as high as +240 and +1400, respectively.
Given the price discrepancy, I'd rather play the Over 3.5 Rounds (+110) or bet the goes to decision prop (down to +140) rather than betting Harrison by decision; but I would search for a live bet on Peña, either way, after Round 3.
Peña vs. Harrison Predictions
Picks:
- Fight Goes to Decision (+192, 0.25u) at FanDuel (bet to +150)
- Julianna Peña Live after Round 3
