Check out my Phillips vs Oliveira prediction for UFC 318 on Saturday, July 19.
Phillips is 6-2 in the UFC but lost his last fight back in October 2024 to Rob Font. Oliveira is 22-3 overall and has won all three of his UFC fights.
Here's my Phillips vs Oliveira pick for tonight.
Kyler Phillips vs Vinicius Oliveira Odds
| Phillips Odds | +130 |
| Oliveira Odds | -155 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 Rounds (-230/ +175) |
| Location | Smoothie King Center | New Orleans |
| Bout Time | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 318 odds via DraftKings as of Friday night. Bet the UFC with our DraftKings promo code | |
Phillips vs Oliveira Pick
Kyler Phillips is a fast starter – and often looks like a future world champion for the first five minutes of his fights – but he consistently gasses out after the five to seven minute mark of his contests. As a result, if you bet Phillips pre-fight at underdog odds, it's with the understanding that you're looking to bet the other side at plus money live after round 1, to lock in a profit.
Phillips' moneyline has moved down from +160 for this contest, and while I still show pre-fight value, his moneyline (projected +108, listed +124) – and would consider betting him down to +115 – it's up to you as to how to play this fight.
Considering most of the value has been taken out of that line, I'm going to wait until fight day and reassess, but you have a few options.
Whether you bet on Phillips pre-fight or not, target Oliveira live after Round 1. Alternatively, consider an SGP with Oliveira and the Over 1.5 Rounds (+120) or his odds to win in Round 2 (+1000) or Round 3 (+1500).
Phillips should have the early grappling upside; he's extremely dynamic from top position, and Oliveira has struggled when put on his back (particularly in the Benardo Sopaj fight). Still, Oliveira has made improvements since entering the UFC and has begun to incorporate some of his offensive wrestling techniques.
Phillips is a highly dynamic striker, too, but Oliveira has proven more efficient (+2.6 to +1.3 landed per minute) and likes to build his way into this fight and take over with pace and pressure down the stretch.
Phillips vs Oliveira Predictions
- Vinicius Oliveira Live after Round 1
