Merab Dvalishvili vs. Cory Sandhagen Odds
| Dvalishvili Odds | -410 |
| Sandhagen Odds | +320 |
| Over/Under | 4.5 (-360/+260) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas |
| Bout Time | 11:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 320 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 320 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Merab Dvalishvili vs. Cory Sandhagen prediction for UFC 320on Saturday, October 4, with my betting preview and breakdown.
Merab Dvalishvili finds himself in his fourth title fight in just over a year, as he looks to cement his place as one of the sport's most dominant champions. He's all but cleaned out the bantamweight division, with Cory Sandhagen serving as possibly the last compelling challenger. Will the furious pace catch up to Dvalishvili the way it did to the UFC 320 headliner Alex Pereira? We'll find out on Saturday night.
Here's my Dvalishvili vs. Sandhagen pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Dvalishvili | Sandhagen | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 20-4 | 18-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 16:36 | 14:02 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 68" | 70" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 1/10/1991 | 4/20/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.31 | 5.06 |
| SS Accuracy | 42% | 45% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.48 | 3.34 |
| SS Defense | 56% | 56% |
| Take Down Avg | 5.84 | 1.29 |
| TD Acc | 35% | 34% |
| TD Def | 82% | 63% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 0.3 |
The biggest difference between the title runs of Dvalishvili and Pereira is that Dvalishvili somehow seems to still be getting better. Two of his three title fights were against Sean O'Malley. He went all five rounds in the first fight against his younger opponent, but dominated him en route to a 3rd round finish in the rematch:
The lack of finishing ability was about the only reasonable criticism of Dvalishvili's skill set, and while it's premature to say he's entirely answered that criticism, putting O'Malley out in three rounds was a big step in the right direction.
Dvalishvili is the most dominant takedown artist the UFC has ever seen, with a UFC record 97 takedowns across 15 fights. The #2 fighter on that list, Georges St. Pierre, needed 22 fights to pick up 90 takedowns. Dvalishvili is able to rack up so many takedowns thanks to his inhuman gas tank that allows him to average more than a takedown attempt per minute. That allows him to wear down grapplers like Umar Nurmagomedov and Olympic wrestling gold medalist Henry Cejudo, against whom he landed a combined 12 takedowns in eight rounds.
The typical flaw in the takedown-heavy game plan is that it becomes increasingly hard to continue to attempt takedowns as the fight wears on, as attempting them generally involves more energy than defending them. Dvalishvili flips that notion on its head, with his opponents invariably running out of gas before "The Machine" does.
That also makes it very hard to land strikes on Dvalishvili, since the moment a fighter sets their feet to throw, Dvalishvili is ducking under for a shot. However, he's also taken massive steps in his standup game.
He outstruck O'Malley in Round 2 of their second fight, despite failing to land any of his four takedown attempts. While the threat of takedowns certainly contributes to his striking success, that was still a positive step forward considering he was outstruck in the first meeting against the former champion.
Dvalishvili also seems fairly durable when he is hit, with just one knockdown suffered in his UFC career. He's never been finished with strikes as a professional, nor has he taken enough damage to cause any real concern about his chin holding up for now. That's the other big difference between his title run and Pereira's — "Poatan" took plenty of damage in his win over Khalil Rountree, which eventually caught up to him before his loss to Ankalaev.
All of which makes it hard to see the path forward for Sandhagen. "Sandman" comes in with a winning "streak" of just one. That win came over former flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo in May, when the 37-year-old Figureido injured his leg in an awkward grappling transition:
Sandhagen's grappling from the bottom might be his best path to victory here, but he was taken down five times by Umar Nurmagomedov and failed to even score a submission attempt. That's the same Nurmagomedov that Dvalishvili outclassed on the ground in their meeting.
Beyond that, Sandhagen's length gives him, in theory, an ability to land strikes on the Georgian from outside of wrestling range. However, at 5'11" with a 70" reach, he's the same height as O'Malley with a slightly shorter reach, and that plan never worked out for "Suga." Sandhagen has a more diverse striking attack than O'Malley with solid kicks and knees — but both of those are tougher options against wrestlers.
Dvalishvili vs. Sandhagen Pick, Prediction
I wrote earlier in the week that I viewed Dvalishvili as undervalued even at his (at the time) -375 betting line. The market evidently agreed with me, with the line steadily moving his way throughout the week.
Due to that, I was pleasantly surprised to see his -5.5 point spread lined at just -120 on DraftKings.
The 5.5 lines are much easier to cover than the 3.5 lines we typically see in three-round fights, as they don't require the favorite to pitch a shutout on the judge's scorecards. Winning at least four of the five rounds covers, as does a finish.
Sandhagen might steal a round if he's able to land a big shot on Dvalishvili early in the fight, but even that will likely be a close call as Dvalishvili controls the action with his grappling later in the frame. That makes this a reasonably safe bet at -120 odds.
Billy's Pick: Dvalishvili -5.5 -120 (DraftKings)
