Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley, Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC 316

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O'Malley Odds, Prediction

Check out my Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O'Malley predictions, picks and odds for UFC 316 on Saturday, June 7.

This fight is a rematch from their bout at UFC 306 — at Noche UFC — where Dvalishvili won a unanimous decision (48-47 x2, 49-46) at the breathtaking Sphere in Las Vegas, Nevada.

The initial fight was around a pick'em on the moneyline, with Merab closing as a slight underdog (+105). That fight was also around a pick'em to reach a decision, with O'Malley listed at +200 to win by KO/TKO, +550 to win by decision, and Merab at +185 to win by decision.

In the rematch, on Saturday, the fight is -260 (72.2% implied) to go to decision. Dvalishvili is -160 (61.5% implied) to win by decision, and O'Malley's KO line has inflated from +200 (33.3% implied) to +575 (14.8% implied).

Since they first fought, Merab successfully defended bantamweight gold against Umar Nurmagomedov at UFC 311, while O'Malley underwent surgery and has spent time recovering from a torn labrum in his hip.

Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC 316 Main Event on Saturday and utilize those factors to bet on these bantamweights. They should make their cage walk at approximately 12:30 a.m. ET (9:00 p.m. PT) on ESPN+ PPV on Sunday morning.

Here's my Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley prediction.

Tale of the Tape

Dvalishvili won the first fight both relatively convincingly, clearly winning rounds 2 and 4, and seemingly getting the best of O'Malley in Rounds 1 and 3 as well. He did some decent work in Round 5, but ultimately absorbed some damaging teep kicks from O'Malley; and those damage optics swung the round against him.

Dvalishvili didn't attempt a takedown for the first 2.5 minutes of the fight; however, once he initiated the grappling, it changed the dynamic of the exchanges at striking distance. O'Malley scrambled up from the initial takedown attempt. Still, Merab almost immediately landed his biggest strike of the round – and one of his biggest of the fight – after making O'Malley think about the takedown threat.

Moreover, he consistently ended rounds by putting O'Malley into a front headlock position (while also playfully kissing his back near the end of Round 2) – providing strong optics for the judges.

O'Malley is used to dictating against opponents, but Merab's pressure constantly pushed him backward during the fight. Dvalishvili would either initiate takedowns once he got O'Malley behind the back line and closer to the fence, or he would shoot reactive takedowns as O'Malley would attempt to close the distance and press forward; it was a borderline masterclass in fight IQ.

O'Malley struggled to get up from those reactive takedowns in the center of the cage, closing his guard for several minutes in Rounds 2 and 4, as he settled on bottom and ate ground and pound from Merab.

He needs the fence to get up from the mat a bit more readily, but tended to eat knees to the thigh and body while pressed up against the fence, and was forced to give his back to scramble away from Merab's grasp every time.

In Round 3, O'Malley landed the teep kick, which eventually proved damaging in Round 5, mixing in kicks and straight punches to the body of Dvalishvili. He also showed his best takedown defense and scrambling of the fight, and landed three good punches and a knee in the final 90 seconds to swing the round in his favor on two of three scorecards.

Round 4 was Merab's most dominant effort – controlling O'Malley for 3:37 and out-landing him 74-7 on total strikes; although he never came close to finishing the fight.

Round 5 featured some very questionable refereeing, with Herb Dean constantly warning a more reserved Dvalishvili to work, despite O'Malley, who was trailing at that point, putting equally minimal effort into initiating the action.

Merab won the first half of the round with a takedown and some knees to the body and thighs of O'Malley against the fence – right in front of Sean's cornermen – but as I said O'Malley had his most success of the fight in the final 2.5 minutes of round 5; landing a straight right hand, denying a takedown attempt, and hitting Merab with a trio of impactful body kicks down the stretch; ultimately swinging that round in his favor on all three scorecards.

Despite losing the majority of minutes in the fight, O'Malley was in actuality just a few damaging strikes in Round 1 away from swinging a decision in his favor – despite losing on total strikes in every round (214-49) and only winning the significant strike battle in Round 5 (11-10; trailed 82-47 overall).

While Merab's conservative start allowed him to settle in against a dangerous opponent, failing to grapple for the first 2.5 minutes of the fight still nearly cost him the decision.

Dvalishvili (averages 9.6 takedown attempts per five minutes at distance, 35% accuracy) has a clear wrestling advantage in this matchup – and can dominate control time (87% control rate) if he can put O'Malley (60% takedown defense, 8% control rate) on his back in the center of the octagon; where he can't use the cage to get back to his feet. Merab was faster in every scramble at the center of the octagon, preventing O'Malley from standing.

Moreover, successful grappling opens up O'Malley defensively, allowing Merab to find success in boxing exchanges.

Still, O'Malley remains the taller and longer athlete (5" taller, 4" reach advantage) and both the more efficient and dangerous striker (+4.3 to +1.1 significant strike differential per minute).

While O'Malley wasn't able to wobble Merab with a head strike in the first fight, it remains a distinct possibility in the rematch; Merab has been knocked down or badly wobbled several times by lesser strikers; nearly finished by Marlon Moraes and rocked hard by Henry Cejudo.

And while Dvalishvili should win the vast majority of minutes in any one of his matchups, O'Malley nearly stole a decision in the first fight with a few big moments; he merely needs to spread those moments across three rounds instead of two.

Still, O'Malley looked exhausted as early as round two from having to countergrapple, and he wasn't moving as well laterally during the fight, or initiating striking exchanges as aggressively as he typically does. Merab's style is exhausting for any opponent to deal with, and can suppress striking volume from typically active opponents.

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Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley Prediction

The perception in the betting market has essentially flipped between these fighters; public predictions were taking O'Malley to win the first fight between 65-70% of the time, despite odds near 50% implied, but the public is only picking him 25% of the time in this rematch, despite odds near 31%.

I projected Dvalishvili as a slight favorite (52.1%) in the first fight, and made him 64% (-178 implied) in the rematch.

Still, as a result, I show an actionable edge on O'Malley's moneyline, at +195 (33.9% implied) or better, at just over a two percent edge compared to my projection (36%).

I also show a slight, although less actionable, edge in the fight to end inside the distance, at +188 projected, compared to the listed odds of +192. However, I'd rather bet the price adjustment on O'Malley by KO/TKO (projected +447, listed +575) compared to his odds in the first fight (+200) if you're betting any violence props.

However, given the cardio dynamic between these fighters, you can look for a live entry on Dvalishvili at any price point better than his pre-fight moneyline. Stylistically, Merab is one of the best and most consistent minute winners in the history of the promotion, and O'Malley is going to need to steal the fight by finishing Merab or having the most impactful moment in three of the five rounds.

Sean's Pick: Sean O'Malley (+235 at BetRivers) | Merab Dvalishvili Live Anytime after Round 1