Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy Odds
| Evloev Odds | -250 |
| Murphy Odds | +205 |
| Over/Under | 4.5 (-345/+250) |
| Location | O2 Arena, London, England |
| Bout Time | 6:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC London odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC London with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy prediction for UFC London on Saturday, March 21, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
On Saturday, the UFC returns to the 02 Arena in London, England, for a 14-fight card, featuring a Featherweight showdown and likely title eliminator between No. 1 contender Movsar Evloev and No. 3-ranked Lerone Murphy.
Murphy, a native of Manchester, England, owns a 9-0-1 promotional record, including a pair of fight night main event wins over Josh Emmett and Edson Barboza.
Evloev, the favored Russian, is 9-0 in the promotion, with all of those wins coming by three-round decision. Saturday's fight will mark the first main event or five-round fight of his career.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC London Main Event on Saturday and use those factors to bet on these featherweights. They're expected to make their cage walks at approximately 6:45 p.m. ET (3:45 p.m. PT) on Saturday evening.
Here's my Evloev vs. Murphy pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Evloev | Murphy | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-0 | 17-0-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 15:00 | 13:47 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'9" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 73" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 2/11/1994 | 07/22/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.99 | 4.48 |
| SS Accuracy | 48% | 53% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.66 | 2.51 |
| SS Defense | 60% | 61% |
| Take Down Avg | 4.67 | 1.41 |
| TD Acc | 48% | 54% |
| TD Def | 61% | 51% |
| Submission Avg | 0.2 | 0.5 |
Both fighters are well-rounded and competitive across all aspects of MMA, as reflected in their combined unbeaten professional record of 37-0-1.
Murphy is both the more dynamic and effective distance striker, outlanding opponents by 2.4 distance strikes per minute in his UFC career, compared to Evloev's +1.4 margin.
Conversely, Evloev is the more proactive and capable control grappler, averaging 6.2 takedown attempts per five minutes at distance, and completing those opportunities at a 61% clip (22 of 36). He's controlled 81% of grappling positions in the UFC, compared to 57% for Murphy.
And those grappling numbers for Evloev were even better, before his 50/50 grappling exchanges with former Bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling (four to six takedowns landed; 6:09 to 6:16 of control time).
Murphy has been the more active athlete, with two fights in each of the past three calendar years. Evloev has just three fights over the same span, and hasn't fought since defeating Aljamain Sterling in December of 2024.
Evloev was initially scheduled to face Aaron Pico in May, but the bout was rescheduled and later cancelled due to an injury. Murphy eventually filled in for Evloev and finished Pico in August.
Murphy should have the cardio advantage; he has experience in 25-minute contests, and we have seen Evloev fade in the final five minutes of his three-round contests, losing Round 3 in separate fights against Hakeem Dawodu and Arnold Allen.
Still, we have also seen Evloev start slowly and batter opponents later in the fight, as in his win over Dane Ige (10-8 third round) or his most recent win over Aljamin Sterling. While I support the notion that Murphy has the better gas tank than Evloev, I don't think the advantage is as dramatic as some have made it out to be.
Moreover, while Evloev is a proactive offensive grappler and rarely gets put on his back defensively, he's not the most dominant control grappler on top; opponents who actively scramble out from bottom position are often about to do so within a minute.
Still, while Evloev doesn't have a finish on his record, he's fought some difficult and durable opponents; his performance against Ige would have ended most fighters within the division.
That said, Murphy will have the home crowd in his favor, and if the rounds are close and competitive – rather than clear for Evloev on the strength of top time – the underdog may get scoring deference from the judges.
Still, we have seen Murphy not only controlled by but also outright dominated in grappling against more physical opponents. The worst was against Makwan Amirkhani, where Murphy spent the majority of Round 1 tied up like a pretzel, fighting off submissions, before landing a fight-ending knee in the second round against an opponent known to gas out.
He was also taken down and controlled – both on the mat and up against the fence – by post-prime versions of Josh Emmett and Dan Ige, both of whom were finished in subsequent appearances.
You could monitor the early grappling exchanges and, if Murphy can shuck Evloev off when both men are dry, potentially enter live on the underdog; I suspect we'll learn a lot about how this fight will play out based upon Evloev's first few takedown attempts, and Murphy should have more success denying those entries as both men tire.
Betting Insight
I projected Movsar Evloev right around a 75% favorite in this matchup (projected 74.8%, -297 implied), and I would consider betting his moneyline pre-fight to around -270 straight, or -285 as a parlay piece.
Moreover, I show an edge on this fight to go the distance or reach a decision, projecting those odds at -295, compared to the listed odds nearer to -250.
As a result, I also show correlated value on Evloev to win by decision (projected -140, listed -115) – which would be his 10th in ten UFC bouts. That could also be the better wager than his moneyline, considering I don't give either man a ton of finishing upside, and I'd rather reduce the juice since I'm concerned Evloev could lose a competitive split against an Englishman in London.
Sean's Picks:
- Movsar Evloev wins by Decision (-112 at Caesars)
