Nassourdine Imavov vs. Caio Borralho Odds
| Imavov Odds | +110 |
| Borralho Odds | -130 |
| Over/Under | 4.5 (-188/+145) |
| Location | Accor Arena, Paris, France |
| Bout Time | 5:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Paris odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Paris with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Nassourdine Imavov vs. Caio Borralho prediction for UFC Paris on Saturday, September 6, with my betting preview and breakdown.
On Saturday, the UFC returns to the Accor Arena in Paris, France, for a 13-fight card, featuring a potential title eliminator in the middleweight division between Frenchman Nassourdine Imavov and Brazilian Caio Borralho.
Borralho is unbeaten in the UFC with a 9-0 promotional record, including his contract-earning performance on Contender Series. Saturday's bout will mark his second consecutive main event and five-round fight, following his win over Jared Cannonier last August.
Imavov enters on a four-fight winning streak – including a TKO win over former champion Israel Adesanya in February. He owns an 8-2-1 promotional record, with four wins inside the distance, and is 3-1 in five-round main events.
Here's my Imavov vs. Borralho pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Imavov | Borralho | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-4 | 17-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 14:23 | 12:51 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 3/01/1996 | 1/16/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.45 | 3.61 |
| SS Accuracy | 55% | 60% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.26 | 2.34 |
| SS Defense | 58% | 62% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.85 | 1.56 |
| TD Acc | 32% | 60% |
| TD Def | 78% | 76% |
| Submission Avg | 1.1 | 0.5 |
Nassourdine Imavov is the taller and younger athlete. Still, Caio Borralho has the more impressive datapoints, outlanding opponents by more than one strike per minute (+1.1) at distance, compared to a margin of +0.3 for Imavov; additionally, Borralho has controlled 82% of grappling positions in the UFC, compared to 39% for Imavov.
Still, Imavov has faced stiffer competition than Borralho throughout their respective promotional runs, and I think Imavov's stamina- which used to be his most limiting trait – has improved drastically since he started training for and competing in five-round fights over the past three years. He struggled late in his first five-round test against Sean Strickland, but has looked noticeably better in extended fights since.
While Borralho is a much more confident distance striker than he used to be – previously forcing the grappling from the outset -and he is highly efficient both offensively (60% accuracy) and defensively (62%) – he relies on straight punches and highly refined, but relatively basic boxing combinations, along with a powerful left kick.
Imavov has the better range finders (an elite jab and flashy teep kicks), superior feints and footwork, and a more dynamic style. He pressures and cuts off the cage well, and I suspect that he will manage distance better in the full-sized cage than Borralho, whose lone main event (and toughest career test) came in the smaller APEX octagon.
And while Borralho is an elite jiu-jitsu practitioner who excels at consolidating back takes, I don't expect him to have much offensive grappling success against Imavov, unless he's able to find a submission in a scramble. Imavov has sturdy takedown defense (78%) and can damage opponents from the top position when he can consolidate his own takedowns. And aside from his fight with Paul Craig (who can't wrestle), Borralho hasn't had to defend many takedowns at this level.
Still, getting taken down twice and controlled for 4:44 by Makmud Muradov – a Team Mayweather boxer – was a worrying look (even if it was three years ago) – and since Imavov is such a dangerous striker and well-rounded threat, it should create entries for him to shoot, and mix the martial arts – which he's seemed more willing to do as his gas tank has improved.
Ultimately, I view Imavov both as the more technical striker and the better wrestler in this matchup; and view him as the man likelier to land the more damaging shots on the feet or gain control time from top position, in what should be a closely contested fight, in front of a partisan crowd.
Imavov vs. Borralho Pick, Prediction
I projected Nassourdine Imavov as a slight underdog in this matchup (projected +110), and I show a slight edge on his moneyline (+115 at Caesars) at the best available odds.
Typically, I'd set a price target of +120 or better relative to that projection, but for a main event – and one where I am already both picking and betting Imavov to win by decision – I am comfortable taking Imavov straight, down to my projected number (+110).
Moreover, I show a slight edge in the fight to reach a decision (projected -171, listed -163), depending on the book.
As a result, I think there is a more significant edge on Imavov's odds to win by decision (projected +238, listed +290) as compared to his moneyline. Still, you can structure a wager between both bet types, taking the decision prop down to +250.
Sean's Pick: Nassourdine Imavov (+115 at Caesars) | Nassourdine Imavov wins by Decision (+290 at Fanatics)
