Pat Sabatini vs. Chepe Mariscal
| Sabatini Odds | -118 |
| Marscal Odds | -102 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-145/+114) |
| Location | Madison Square Garden, New York City, NY |
| Bout Time | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 322 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 322 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Pat Sabatini vs. Chepe Mariscal prediction for UFC 322on Saturday, November 15, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Here's my Sabatini vs. Mariscal pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Susurkaev | McConico | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 20-5-0 | 18-6-1 (1 NC) |
| Avg. Fight Time | 8:23 | 13:40 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 69" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 11/9/1990 | 10/27/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 1.87 | 4.95 |
| SS Accuracy | 62% | 56% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 1.22 | 3.07 |
| SS Defense | 49% | 51% |
| Take Down Avg | 3.98 | 2.85 |
| TD Acc | 28% | 39% |
| TD Def | 50% | 73% |
| Submission Avg | 1.8 | 0.2 |
Sabatini vs. Mariscal Pick, Prediction
Pat Sabatini and Chepe Mariscal faced one another in a regional bout in 2018, with Sabatini prevailing by split decision at Victory FC 60 in Hammond, Indiana.
Both fighters have come a long way since then, ahead of their rematch at UFC 322. Still, the dynamic remains the same: Sabatini is the superior grappler, and Mariscal the far more technical striker, making this a relatively binary matchup.
Sabatini is a very effective wrestler (attempts 14.3 takedowns per 5 minutes, 49% accuracy), considering most jiu-jitsu practitioners struggle to land takedowns and get their fights to the mat. He's also a dominant control grappler (87% control rate vs. 70% for Chepe), particularly when he can find a back take and consolidate position.
Still, Sabatini doesn't have a great chin, and Chepe – who can grapple a bit himself – is the far better striker – outlanding opponents by 0.8 significant strikes per minute. In contrast, Sabatini has lagged behind his opposition by the same margin.
Still, Chepe is the most popular and public underdog selection of the week – bettors and fans are picking him to win the fight 63% of the time, on average, compared to implied odds nearer to 47%. Considering my model is designed to track book needs, I projected Sabatini as a -144 favorite and would play his moneyline up to -138, at a 1% edge compared to my number.
I don't project an edge on the total. Still, I do show a slight edge on Sabatini to win by submission (projected +465, listed +700) or inside the distance (projected +358, listed +460); if he's going to get to the positions he needs to to win a comfortable decision on control time, Sabatini should have several opportunities to lock in a fight-ending submission; still, he doesn't tend to take unnecessary risks from dominant positions, which can be frustrating to watch.
Projection: Pat Sabatini (59%)
Sean's Pick:
- Pat Sabatini (-115, 0.5u) at Fanatics; bet to -138
