UFC Fight Night Main Event Pick: Pedro Munhoz vs. Frankie Edgar

Credit:

Isaac Brekken/Getty Images. Pictured: Pedro Munhoz, of Brazil.

Aug 23, 2020, 09:50 PM EDT
  • MMA betting analyst Sean Zerillo previews the main event of Saturday's UFC Fight Night card.
  • Find his take on the odds and his Pedro Munhoz vs. Frankie Edgar pick below.

Pedro Munhoz vs. Frankie Edgar Odds

Munhoz odds -278 (BET NOW)
Edgar odds +225 (BET NOW)
Over/Under 3.5 Rounds  (+100/-134) (BET NOW)
Time 10:30 p.m. ET
Venue UFC Apex, Las Vegas
Channel ESPN

Odds as of Saturday at 8 a.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Former UFC lightweight champion and current No. 8-ranked featherweight, Frankie Edgar will face off against fifth-ranked bantamweight Pedro Munhoz in the main event of Saturday night’s UFC Fight Night card on ESPN.

Edgar (2-3 in his past five fights) is making his debut in the bantamweight division at the tender age of 38 and enters the bout as +225 underdog to get the win. Munhoz is coming off a loss to Aljamain Sterling over a year ago, but has won three of his past five fights leading up to tonight and oddsmakers like his chances to get a finish (+138 to win by KO/TKO)

Here’s an in-depth preview of Saturday’s matchup below, including how I’m planning to bet the fight before the value is gone. You can also check out my betting analysis and of all 10 bouts here.

Tale of the Tape

Munhoz Edgar
Record 18-4 (1 NC) 22-8-1
Avg. Fight Time 8:46 16:46
Height 5’6″ 5’6″
Weight (pounds) 135 lbs. 135 lbs.
Reach (inches) 65″ 68″
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Date of birth 9/7/86 10/16/81
Sig Strikes Per Min 5.29 3.60
SS Accuracy 42% 40%
SS Absorbed Per Min 6.17 2.48
SS Defense 57% 68%
Take Down Avg 0.92 2.34
TD Acc 21% 31%
TD Def 81% 65%
Submission Avg 1.1 0.3

With Edgar moving down in weight it will be interesting to see whether that helps or hurts him in this fight. He has 3-inch reach advantage over Munhoz, but both fighters come in at the same height. Munhoz strikes at a much higher volume, but he’s prone to taking damage as well (6.17 strikes absorbed).

Edgar ranks in the top 10 among UFC active featherweights in fewest strikes absorbed per minute, but his past two fights were not the best example of his ability to avoid damage. In his past two fights, Edgar was out-landed 175-105 in significant strikes against Max Holloway and Chan Sung Jung, a potential sign that his best days could be behind him.

Munhoz vs. Edgar Betting Pick

Edgar has never been submitted, but he has lost three of his past four fights while taking a ton of damage as noted above, including two first round knockout losses – raising questions about his chin for the first time in his career. Additionally, he cut to Bantamweight for the first time ever for this fight, which should further drain his gas tank.

Due to Edgar’s strong submission defense, Munhoz’s odds to win inside of the distance (-134) are pretty accurate, and there is very slight value on the Brazilian’s odds to win directly by KO/TKO/DQ.

In the smaller cage at UFC Apex, Edgar won’t have much room to use his speed to dance around the outside. Munhoz will eventually find his range and start teeing off with his power – similar to the Benavidez vs. Figueiredo fights –  and I expect this bout to end in a similar fashion.

Edgar won’t want to initiate the grappling given Munhoz’s submission skills – particularly his guillotine – and Munhoz won’t force the issue given Edgar’s defensive wrestling and submission defense. This should largely be a striking battle.

I like Munhoz by KO/TKO, but I wouldn’t bet it past +120.

The Pick: Munhoz by KO/TKO (+138)

[Bet now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

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@SeanZerillo

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