Ricky Simon vs. Adrian Yanez Odds
| Simon Odds | -148 |
| Yanez Odds | +124 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-195/+150) |
| Location | Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle Washington |
| Bout Time | 5:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Seattle odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Seattle with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Ricky Simon vs. Adrian Yanez prediction for UFC Seattle on Saturday, March 28, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Veterans in the bantamweight division will clash on Saturday in Seattle as Ricky Simon and Adrian Yanez will both try to avoid gatekeeper status. For an early preliminary bout on the card, the name value of both men and stylistic matchup provide an exciting contest you do not normally see during the early going of a UFC card in the Paramount era. Let’s break down the tactical side of this fight and dig into why I have to take the value here on the moneyline underdog.
Here's my Simon vs. Yanez pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Simon | Yanez | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 22-7 | 17-6 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:41 | 6:48 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 69" | 70" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 8/31/1992 | 11/29/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.04 | 6.23 |
| SS Accuracy | 43% | 41% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.85 | 5.75 |
| SS Defense | 61% | 54% |
| Take Down Avg | 4.66 | 0 |
| TD Acc | 41% | 0% |
| TD Def | 76% | 81% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 0 |
Ricky Simon is a veteran of 16 UFC bouts and still has the ability to challenge many of the top contenders, although besting them may not be in the cards for him moving forward. He made his name with relentless pace and a wrestling-heavy attack, racking up wins over Merab Dvalishvili, Raphael Assuncao, and Jack Shore. If you include his Dana White Contender Series showcase, Simon was successful in landing four or more takedowns in 7 of his first 9 fights.
Since that point, he has simultaneously gained confidence in his striking ability and lacked the drive to pursue the takedown at all costs.
This has led to Simon only landing three or more takedowns in a fight once since December 2021 – his victory over Cameron Smotherman in June of 2025. Of course, part of the reason Simon couldn’t just impose his will as the quintessential grinder to get his hand raised was an increase in the level of his competition. Many of his opponents possessed a blend of movement skills, counter-striking, and defensively sound grappling.
Adrian Yanez also possesses those abilities, boasting an 81% takedown defense over the course of his career, plus the addition of power in his hands. Still only 32 years old, I get the feeling the extended layoff between fights will provide a good opportunity for a mental reset.
Yanez has said as much himself in recent interviews. His fight anxiety caused him to train less efficiently, and he believes he has optimized his time in the gym recently since recovering from undisclosed medical issues. Fighters often claim their camp was their best camp they have ever had leading up to whatever fight is next for them, but Yanez clearly has the potential to be a contender in the bantamweight division and is still squarely in his athletic prime.
It wouldn’t be a stretch to project him finally putting it all together. If he does, the plus money attached to his name will feel like a tremendous value.
Simon would be foolish to play into Yanez’s hands by allowing him to rhythmically pick him apart with his elite boxing skills. I expect the grappling edge to reveal itself at points in this fight, but even if Yanez gets put on his back two or three times, that may not be enough to influence the decision.
Yanez has suffered a couple of recent knockout losses, but the finishing equity is still on the side of a more crisp and powerful striker here. Yanez is -160 on the "finish only" moneyline on DraftKings, which refunds if the fight goes to a decision.
Simon is generally durable, but he has been stung and put away with strikes before. Yanez’s slick counters could potentially catch Simon pressing forward in an attempt to close the distance. Yanez can also win this fight by getting back to his feet when needed, negating control time and limiting damage.
Betting Insight
I feel there are more paths to victory here for the underdog than there are for the favorite. If these odds were flipped and Yanez found himself as the implied 60% favorite, I would probably pass on this fight from a moneyline betting perspective.
However, this line provides a good wagering opportunity in what I see as, at worst, a 50/50 contest. Don’t be surprised when this bout goes the full 15 minutes and a split decision is read.
Yanez’s inactivity in 2025, combined with his 1-3 record in his last four, will scare off the casual bettor, but I am willing to take my chances that his skillset and renewed focus win out over the more predictable Simon offensive arsenal. I’d play the underdog here down to +110.
John's Pick: Adrian Yanez moneyline +124 (FanDuel)
