Check out the Shara Magomedov vs. Marc-Andre Barriault prediction for UFC Abu Dhabi on Saturday, July 26, with my betting preview and breakdown.
UFC Abu Dhabi’s main card features an interesting middleweight affair between two fighters coming off of momentum shifts in their career. For the dangerous kickboxer Shara “Bullet” Magomedov, it was his first career loss in MMA. For Marc-Andre Barriault, a resounding first round knockout victory seemed to have staved off questions about a potential end to his UFC tenure.
Here's my Magomedov vs. Barriault pick and prediction.
Shara Magomedov vs. Marc-Andre Barriault Odds
| Magomedov Odds | -625 |
| Barriault Odds | +455 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-188/+145) |
| Location | Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, UAE |
| Bout Time | 3:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ABC |
| UFC Abu Dhabi odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Abu Dhabi with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Tale of the Tape
| Magomedov | Barriault | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-1 | 17-9 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:28 | 9:44 |
| Height | 6'2" | 6'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 73" | 74" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 5/16/1994 | 2/18/1990 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.87 | 6.02 |
| SS Accuracy | 62% | 47% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.13 | 5.57 |
| SS Defense | 42% | 52% |
| Take Down Avg | 0 | 0.21 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 25% |
| TD Def | 72% | 67% |
| Submission Avg | 0 | 0.1 |
It’s highly unlikely this fight ends up on the mat at any point, despite the fact that Barriault will look to use his physicality advantage to clinch with Magomedov. It will be evident as this fight plays out on the feet that the striking styles of these two men couldn’t be more different. A quarter of all strikes landed throughout Barriault’s UFC tenure have been inside the clinch.
Barriault is looking to get inside the pocket, turning the fight into a dirty boxing match. However, to do this, he is going to need to press forward in order to back Magomedov up against the cage. While Magomedov has a clear speed and athleticism advantage, he does lack the lateral movement needed at times to avoid getting stuck near the cage.
Magomedov’s world-class kicking attack is what he will use to keep the fight at the range he wants. It is one of the reasons his striking accuracy sits at an impressive 62% mark. Magomedov's win over kickboxer Armen Petrosyan in 2024 saw him land 64% of all his significant strikes to the body or leg of his opponent, with a majority of those being kicks. This eventually opened up more opportunities to attack the head as he used his explosiveness to catch Petrosyan by surprise with a double spinning back-fist.
With questions about Barriault’s durability already in tow, it is very difficult to envision him executing a gameplan of relentless pressure with impunity.
Magomedov shouldn’t be looked at as a one-punch KO artist, but that kind of result could certainly be in the cards considering Barriault was stopped in Round 1 in two consecutive losses in 2024. Rarely do fighters have their durability cracked in such a manner only to bounce back to have their best days of withstanding damage in front of them.
Magomedov vs. Barriault Pick, Prediction
At age 35, Barriault’s offensive arsenal still looks to be intact. However, his liability is crystal clear. At any point, a highly accurate striker squarely in his prime may find the button.
Furthermore, an accumulation of damage may do the trick for Magomedov as well. Looking back to his entire MMA career, in three of his last four knockout victories the finish didn’t materialize until at least nine minutes had ticked off of the clock.
I am happy to lay the juice here that Magomedov will eventually find the opening he needs to put away Barriault over the course of 15 minutes.
John's Pick:Shara Magomedov by KO/TKO/DQ -135 (DraftKings)
