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Jessica Andrade vs. Rose Namajunas Odds, Pick & Prediction: Can Rose Bounce Back In This Strawweight Rematch?

Jessica Andrade vs. Rose Namajunas Odds, Pick & Prediction: Can Rose Bounce Back In This Strawweight Rematch? article feature image

Alexandre Schneider/Getty Images. PIctured (L-R): Rose Namajunas and Jessica Andrade.

  • The updated betting odds for tonight's UFC 251 strawweight matchup lists Rose Namajunas as a -215 betting favorite against Jessica Andrade (+169 underdog).
  • This fight is rematch of their championship fight in 2019 when Namajunas lost her belt to the Brazilian Andrade. Can Rose come through in Part 2?
  • Sean Zerillo previews the matchup, including his favorite betting pick for the fight.

Andrade vs. Namajunas Odds

Andrade odds +169 [BET NOW]
Namajunas odds -215 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (-162/+215) [BET NOW]
Venue Yas Island, Abu Dhabi
Time Saturday at 10:30 p.m. ET
Channel ESPN/ESPN+

Odds as of Saturday 8 a.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

The fact that this rematch of a classic title fight is just the second fight on the UFC 251 pay per-view is a testament to Dana White’s ability to schedule amazing cards. Both are former champions and both are looking to get back in the win column after losing the strawweight belt in their most recent fights.

Jessica Andrade (11-5 in the UFC) enters as the underdog (+175) despite winning the first time around, while Rose Namajunas (6-3 UFC record) has become a solid favorite a -215.

Tale of the Tape

Andrade Namajunas
Record 20-7 9-4
Avg. Fight Time 10:13 12:16
Height 5’1″ 5’5″
Weight (pounds) 115 lbs. 115 lbs.
Reach (inches) 62″ 65″
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Date of birth 9/25/91 6/29/92
Sig Strikes Per Min 6.55 3.95
SS Accuracy 51% 42%
SS Absorbed Per Min 5.28 3.88
SS Defense 51% 59%
Take Down Avg 3.21 2.17
TD Acc 58% 55%
TD Def 76% 46%
Submission Avg 0.5 0.9

Here’s an in-depth preview of that matchup below, including how I’m planning to bet the fight before the value is gone. You can also check out my analysis of all 13 bouts here.

Andrade vs. Namajunas Betting Pick

This is a rematch between former strawweight champions Jessica Andrade and Rose Namajunas.

The first fight ended memorably:

The end of their first fight shocked the 🌍!

Early predictions for Andrade vs Namajunas 2? 🤔#UFC251 #InAbuDhabi @VisitAbuDhabi

— UFC Canada (@UFC_CA) July 9, 2020

UFC Fighters who win the first fight win the rematch more than 70% of the time – but this is a bit of a curious situation.

Andrade opened as a -120 favorite for the first fight, was bet to -155 at the close, and opened as a +145 underdog for the rematch despite winning, with money coming now coming in against her.

Namajunas got the better of Andrade in the first round of their first fight, out-landing her 30-24. Still, Andrade spent time working to the body and legs, while 98% of Rose’s shots were to the head, and Andrade began to close the distance – by running at her opponent – and use her strength more effectively in the second round – where she drew even on strikes (25-23) before winning by the power slam.

Namajunas fought well, but I also don’t think that she was dominating to such a degree that she deserved to see such a massive swing in betting odds, regardless of the crowd projection.

Andrade is undoubtedly capable of racking up takedowns and dominating with top control. Still, Namajunas should benefit from the three-round format and 30-foot octagon, as opposed to the five-round championship fight that they were scheduled for last time.

The crowd makes Namajunas a -111 favorite (implied 52.6%) to win by decision, and it has the fight reaching the scorecards 62.1% of the time (implied odds of -164).

There is no value on the total, but Namajunas by decision (+175) has some appeal, and I’ll make a small play on the winning method prop.

Pick: Namajunas by decision (+175)
Bet Rose at +225 with 50% profit boost

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