Petr Yan vs. Jose Aldo Odds, Pick & Prediction: Can the Legend Score a Title Fight Upset at UFC 251?
Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: Jose Aldo of Brazil.
- Bantamweight Petr Yan enters this fight as a -240 betting favorite over MMA veteran and former champion Jose Aldo (+193 underdog) at UFC 251.
- Both fighters are seeking to claim the vacant 135-pound belt at Fight Island. Should you back the experienced vet in this matchup?
- Sean Zerillo gives his fight analysis and his favorite bet for the first of three title fights on Saturday night.
Petr Yan vs. Jose Also Odds
|Yan odds||-240 [BET NOW]|
|Aldo odds||+193 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-182/+135) [BET NOW]|
|Venue||Yas Island, Abu Dhabi|
|Time||Saturday at 11 p.m. ET|
This fight for the vacant UFC bantamweight belt is one of the many reasons why this UFC 251 card is so epic — there have only been four other cards with three title fights.
Jose Aldo (10-5 UFC record) clearly has the edge in experience, his eight title fight wins are sixth all time in the UFC and tied for third-most among active fighters. Despite that, he is an underdog to the up-and-coming Petr Yan (6-0 UFC record) who is looking to stake his claim as the world’s best bantamweight.
Tale of the Tape
|Avg. Fight Time||11:32||13:14|
|Weight (pounds)||135 lbs.||135 lbs.|
|Date of birth||2/11/93||9/9/86|
|Sig Strikes Per Min||5.56||3.47|
|SS Absorbed Per Min||3.15||3.18|
|Take Down Avg||1.73||0.64|
Here’s an in-depth preview of that matchup below, including how I’m planning to bet matchup before the value is gone. You can also check out my analysis of all 13 bouts here.
Petr Yan vs. Jose Aldo Betting Pick
By my estimation, Saturday’s night’s Bantamweight clash between rising star Petr Yan and MMA legend Jose Aldo is less title fight than a coronation for the 27-year-old Siberian star.
“No Mercy” caught my eye the moment that he burst onto the UFC scene – with the ability to turn any match into a firefight with his relentless pressure kickboxing.
He is undefeated (6-0) on his UFC run and recently scored a knockout win over MMA legend Uriah Faber. Recording a win over another legend in Aldo, to win his first title, would cement Yan as one of the most prominent young stars in the sport:
Yan has been a significant betting favorite in every fight – with the market steaming him dramatically each time. The bout with Aldo is Yan’s first UFC fight where the line hasn’t moved significantly in his favor since open.
He should be able to dictate the pace and pressure and make adjustments while switching stances and maintaining a high volume (5.65 strikes landed per minute) against Aldo (3.47 strikes landed per minute), a curious choice for this vacant title fight.
Saturday could mark Aldo’s last shot to win a belt, and to be fair – while he has lost five of his past eight fights, they were all against championship level fighters with a handful of combined UFC losses; Conor McGregor, Max Holloway (2x), Alexander Volkanovki, and Marlon Moraes.
The Moraes fight was Aldo’s Bantamweight debut, and while he lost a close battle and came on late, Moraes mostly tired out. Aldo isn’t known for his cardio – Yan should be the much fresher man in the championship rounds.
The Russian applies his power via constant pressure like Holloway, who thoroughly out-struck Aldo during their two encounters (174-87 and 105-55) and Yan will continually find his openings the longer that the fight goes. He is an exceptional fighter with superior footwork, speed, strength, and stamina.
Aldo has to be willing to utilize his famed leg kicks, but he has sustained numerous lower-half injuries and relied on his boxing in the later stages of his career – which will not lead to success against Yan.
70% of the crowd is picking Yan by KO/TKO, making his fair odds -110 (implied 53.2%), so there isn’t much value compared to the listed odds at +110. His decision odds (+275) also don’t offer value relative to the crowd projection (+339).
And I would need a number higher than +700 for any winning method prop on Aldo.
The crowd expects the fight to go the distance 35% of the time, implied odds of +186, so there isn’t value in that market, either.
Over 2.5 rounds (-186) has some appeal since I don’t anticipate an early finish, and I’ll take a look at Yan Round 3 (+800), Yan Round 4 (+1000) and Yan Round 5 (+1600) as props, given the cumulative power that his volume generates.
My gut says that Yan should be a more significant favorite, and the crowd projection would put him at -316. I’ll be using Yan’s ML odds and the over in parlays.