Amanda Ribas vs. Virna Jandiroba Odds, Pick, Preview: How to Bet UFC 267 Bout
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: Amanda Ribas.
- Amanda Ribas takes on fellow Brazilian Virna Jandiroba in the featured prelim at UFC 267 on Saturday afternoon.
- Ribas won her first four UFC fights before a surprise loss to Marina Rodriguez in January.
- Erich Richter breaks down the fight and how bettors should back Ribas below.
Ribas vs. Jandiroba Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-310 / +210)|
|Venue||Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi|
|Time||1:30 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute UFC odds here.|
The UFC 267 featured prelim bout pits two women strawweight contenders, Amanda Ribas and Virna Jandiroba, against each other.
Ribas saw her undefeated UFC record ended in her last fight, which was a loss to striking ace Marina Rodriguez. Jandiroba has a 17-2 record with both losses coming in the UFC against Mackenzie Dern and Carla Esparza.
This fight opened as a near pick’em, but the public has steamed Ribas to a sizable consensus favorite.
Tale of the Tape
|Avg. Fight Time||9:05||9:36|
|Weight (pounds)||115.5 lbs.||116 lbs.|
|Date of birth||4/26/93||5/30/88|
|Sig Strikes Per Min||4.25||2.65|
|SS Absorbed Per Min||1.78||2.92|
|Take Down Avg||2.31||2.50|
Both Ribas and Jandiroba have fought jiu-jitsu ace Mackenzie Dern. Jandiroba lost that fight to Dern, while Ribas won 30-27 on every judge’s scorecard. Rewatching Ribas’ win is important to break down this fight because it is a stylistically similar matchup for the Brazilian.
Ribas dominated the striking and avoided compromising ground positions in the third round against Dern. Ribas showed the kind of fight IQ you want to see as she faces another submission specialist.
Jandiroba was out-struck by Dern in their fight from start to finish. Watching Ribas out-strike the same opponent tells you a lot about where Jandiroba’s striking is at this point in her career.
This would make Jandiroba’s main path to victory contingent on getting this fight to the mat. She has shown this ability in the past against lower-level competition with 13 of her 17 wins coming by submission, including two of her three wins in the UFC.
However, I do have concerns about Jandiroba’s ability to get her to the mat in this fight since Ribas is extremely difficult to take down with an 85% takedown defense, per UFCStats.
In terms of striking, the volume and power edge will go to Ribas. She has only absorbed 1.78 significant strikes per minute in her 5 UFC fights and also owns the better significant striking differential by a wide margin (+2.47 vs. -0.27).
Ribas vs. Jandiroba Pick
Put simply, Jandiroba’s way to win this fight is squarely in the grappling department. Ribas’ takedown defense could give Jandiroba fits.
I am not convinced that Jandiroba takes down Ribas, who is a good wrestler herself. Ribas’ ground control is excellent, and we could see Jandiroba settle for submission attempts off her back — a particularly poor technique in MMA.
Playing off your back in MMA does you nothing but lose you fights on the scorecards. For those who got Ribas earlier in the week at -120, we salute you!
Currently, Ribas is -154 on FanDuel. I think she could be a good parlay piece if you want to add her to one of the other big favorites to get plus money.
In this fight, I will take both her moneyline and decision prop. Ribas has a very clear path to victory: stay off her back. Her judo, wrestling and striking should be enough to win this fight going away.
Ribas is +130 to win by a decision, which should take care of most of her win condition. It is very unlikely she gets a submission on Jandiroba and while a TKO is possible, she only has three of those in her 12 fights and none in the UFC.
I would bet her decision prop down to +105 and her moneyline up to -200. She should be a great addition to a parlay with Khamzat Chimaev or Ankalaev.
The Pick: Ribas ML -154 (play to -200) | Ribas by decision +130 (play to +105)