UFC 289 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Dan Ige vs. Nate Landwehr: Bet This Mispriced Prop (Saturday, June 10)

UFC 289 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Dan Ige vs. Nate Landwehr: Bet This Mispriced Prop (Saturday, June 10) article feature image
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Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC featherweight Dan Ige

  • One of UFC 289's featured main-card matchups on Saturday is Dan Ige vs. Nate Landwehr.
  • Ige is a big favorite in the featherweight fight.
  • Below, Billy Ward breaks down the matchup and explains how he's betting the favorite at plus money.

Dan Ige vs. Nate Landwehr Odds

Ige Odds-260
Landwehr Odds+220
Over/Under2.5 (+105/ -135)
VenueRogers Arena in Vancouver
Time10:25 p.m. ET
ChannelESPN+ PPV
Odds as of Friday and via DraftKings

The UFC 289 main card features a featherweight bout that promises a ton of excitement.

Dan "50K" Ige has literally made a (nick)name for himself based on picking up Fight of the Night bonuses, and the always-exciting Nate Landwehr has cashed an extra $50,000 check in his last three bouts, as well.

Unfortunately, we can't (legally) bet on which fight gets fight-night honors – but we still have some solid angles from which to attack this one.

Tale of the Tape

IgeLandwehr
Record16-617-4
Avg. Fight Time12:529:12
Height5'7"5'9"
Weight (pounds)145 lbs.145 lbs.
Reach (inches)71"72"
StanceOrthodoxOrthodox
Date of birth8/6/19916/6/1988
Sig Strikes Per Min3.806.47
SS Accuracy45%49%
SS Absorbed Per Min3.585.51
SS Defense57%56%
Take Down Avg1.251.36
TD Acc26%62%
TD Def52%86%
Submission Avg0.31.4

Ige has had an interesting run in the UFC. He started hot, winning six of his first seven fights following his appearance on the inaugural season of Contender Series. He then had a rough patch, dropping four of five against higher-level competition before returning to the win column in his last fight.

One of my favorite things about combat sports, in general, is that there's no "right" body style. There are pros and cons for all types of builds, and Ige is a perfect example of this. He's one of the shorter featherweights at just 5-foot-7, but he has an excellent style for his frame. He manages to apply pressure on the feet without chasing his taller opponents, instead cutting off the cage and walking them into corners.

Ige is able to use his smaller frame to generate power in close quarters and while digging body shots – an area where taller fighters struggle due to needing more room to wind up strikes. This was on display perfectly in his recent knockout of Damon Jackson. Ige caught Jackson with a tight left hook using almost no windup, putting Jackson out instantly.

Dan Ige with the walk-off KO 😱 #UFCVegas67

(via @espnmma) pic.twitter.com/d5AQJ9pZMV

β€” MMAFighting.com (@MMAFighting) January 15, 2023

While Ige is listed as an orthodox fighter, he frequently switches to southpaw for short periods, with excellent footwork that allows him to keep his desired angle on his opponent. That's especially useful against longer opponents, who may try to create distance by circling away from Ige's power hand.

Ige struggles a bit more in the grappling department with a below-average 52% takedown defense. Both Mosvar Evloev and Chan Sung Jung were able to beat Ige via ground control – though to Ige's credit, he's never been finished as a professional.

Landwehr's style is far less technical. "The Train" prefers to brawl, marching forward incessantly while gladly taking shots in order to land his own. He's been successful with this strategy thanks to his elite cardio and chin while coming back from massive deficits on numerous occasions to take over fights late.

Nate Landwehr’s career before the UFC was insane. πŸ‘€ #UFCSanAntoniopic.twitter.com/ljbEVX8XZz

β€” MMA On Point (@OnPointMMA) March 24, 2023

The issue with that strategy is twofold.

One, tough chins don't last forever. All too often we've seen fighters with iron chins suddenly lose the ability to take a shot – and at 35 that time could be coming from Landwehr.

Secondly, Ige has huge power for the division, so it's a dangerous game to play.

Landwehr's lack of offensive grappling also helps explain the betting odds here. While he'll land the occasional takedown, it's not the focal point of his game, and he'll probably need to win a striking match against Ige. That's a tough ask, given Ige's technical acumen and superior defense.

Ige vs. Landwehr Pick

The string of improbable victories snatched from the jaws of defeat on Landwehr's record is enough to scare me off from laying the juice on Ige's moneyline. However, I was pleasantly surprised to see the line on Ige's knockout and inside-the-distance props.

Landwehr's striking defense is a massive liability, with more than five-and-a-half significant strikes absorbed per minute. While he's more or less gotten away with that strategy so far, Ige is pretty clearly the best striker and hardest puncher Landwehr has fought inside the UFC octagon. Landwehr may absorb a few, but if he continues to play with fire, I suspect Ige will be able to put him out here.

I'm torn between betting on Ige via KO at +165 and his inside-the-distance line at +130. While Ige isn't a submission artist, sometimes the easiest way to finish durable fighters like Landwehr is to lock up a submission while they're trying to clear the cobwebs.Β  Given the relatively close odds between the knockout and inside-the-distance lines, let's hedge against a "club and sub" with the +130 "double chance" bet on Ige.

If you're interested in betting on Landwehr, the best option is to wait for a live bet following Round 1. If Ige has a big first round but is unable to finish Landwehr – as is often the case in Landwehr's fights – his moneyline odds could balloon well past the +200 or so they are pre-fight.

The Pick: Ige inside the distance +130 (DraftKings)

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