UFC 318 Odds, Predictions: Expert Picks, Previews for All 14 Fights

Carli Judice vs. Nicolle Caliari

Projection: Judice (81.1%)

Carli Judice is a lengthy and dynamic striker with a significant size advantage over Nicolle Caliari (4" taller, 6" reach advantage), who prefers to grapple, making this a relatively binary fight in the women's Flyweight division.

Moreover, Judice is coming off a spectacular first-round finish of Yuneisy Duben – extending her 100% first-round finish rate to four pro victories, and I'd anticipate that some bettors are targeting "Crispy" Carli to maintain that streak at plus money, whether in Round 1 or inside the distance.

Still, three-round women's flyweight bouts go to decision at a 68% clip (-212 implied) on average, and both Judice and Caliari have shown the ability to compete well enough in both striking and grappling against their one common opponent (Ernesta Kareckaite) to fight to split decisions.

I projected this fight to go to decision at a higher rate than the women's flyweight average, closer to 75% of the time (-285 implied), and would bet the distance or decision prop to -250.

Alternatively, or in addition, I projected Judice's decision prop at -155, and would bet that up to -135.

Bets

• Fight Goes to Decision (-190, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to -250

Brunno Ferreira vs. Jackson McVey

Projection: Ferreira (79.6%)

Jackson McVey will make his UFC debut on Saturday after separate cancellations of bouts with Sedriques Dumas. McVey is the bigger man (5" taller, 5" reach advantage) than Brunno Ferreira, and is 6-0 as a professional with every win coming inside of four minutes, including four first-minute finishes; however, his opponents have a combined record of 22-27.

Ferreira is 5-2 in the UFC, including a contract-earning performance on Contender Series. While he's both small for the division (and significantly smaller than the 6'2", 79" reach of Dumas) and extremely hittable (49% striking defense), Hulk is a highly powerful and dangerous test for McVey's first UFC bout.

Like McVey, Ferreira has finished each of his professional wins inside the distance, so that the cardio could be a potential disaster on either side of an extended fight between this pair.

Ultimately, I do show a slight edge on the underdog (projected +390) or McVey inside the distance (projected +464, listed +500), but I'm inclined to pass on this fight from a betting perspective.

However, you should have nearly 100% ownership on this fight in DFS, with odds set at -1400 (and projected -1009) to end inside the distance, and north of -250 to finish in 7.5 minutes or less.

Bets

• Pass

Ryan Spann vs. Lukasz Brzeski

Projection: Spann (69.5%)

In a year of Heavyweight overs and decisions, I'm tempted to bet the Over 1.5 rounds and go to decision props at plus money between Ryan Spann – a former Light Heavyweight – and Lukasz Brzeski – a volume cardio kickboxer with a 2-5 promotional record and subpar power for the Heavyweight division.

Spann is dangerous early against any opponent (17 of 22 wins in Round 1; including his four most recent wins) but he has always shown poor cardio, and it wasn't necessarily weight-cut related at 205 pounds; Spann showed little to no improvement in his stamina in his second-round loss to Waldo Cortes-Acosta in his Heavyweight debut in March.

Spann is both the bigger (1" taller, 3" reach) and far more athletic man than Brzeski, and could look like a significant favorite given his speed advantage in the early exchanges. Still, the one area Brzeski could excel in is volume in an extended fight. However, it seems unlikely to get there; Brzeski has three consecutive first-round losses and isn't exceptionally durable.

• Over 1.5 Rounds (+150, 0.2u) at DraftKings (bet to +135)
• Fight goes to Decision (+550, 0.05u) at ESPNBet (bet to +475)
• Lukasz Brzeski Live after Round 1

Jimmy Crute vs. Marcin Prachnio 

Projection: Crute (78.3%)

Jimmy Crute should have all of the grappling upside in this matchup (attempts six takedowns per five minutes at distance; 53% accuracy vs. 54% takedown defense for Prachnio; 67% vs. 15% control rate), but Marcin Prachnio is the more technical kickboxer (+2.8 to -1.2 strike differential per minute).

Neither fighter has a good chin, but I'd rate the punching power for either man as below average for the division. The likeliest ways this fight finishes are Prachnio destroying Crute with leg kicks and compromising his movement, or Crute sinking in a submission. Crute is 0-3-2 in his past five fights, winless since 2020, and desperate to see his hand raised, and Prachnio, who is eight years his senior, has been submitted in the third round in his two most recent losses.

As a result, I'd expect Crute to go for broke late to find a finish on the mat regardless of the scorecards, and I'm more intrigued by the Over 1.5 Rounds or Over 2.5 rounds than betting the goes to decision prop (projected +125, listed +160). Additionally, I'd prefer to bet Crute in an SGP with either round total as opposed to betting Crute by decision (projected +221, listed +310) at juicier odds.

While I do think Crute has the cardio advantage in this fight, his odds to win in Round 2 (+400) and Round 3 (+700) aren't particularly enticing. However, I would bet on Crute live if the first round is competitive and his price improves.

Bets

• Over 1.5 Rounds (-160, 0.25u) at ESPNBet (bet to -175)
• Jimmy Crute Live after Round 1

Adam Fugitt vs. Islam Dulatov 

Projection: Dulatov (87.1%)

Islam "The Ripper" Dulatov will make his official UFC debut on Saturday following a contract-earning performance on Contender Series, where he earned his 10th consecutive finish (nine in the first round). Dulatov is an aggressive and dangerous welterweight, but significant question marks surround his durability, cardio, and resilience in an extended fight.

Adam Fugitt is nine years his senior, and owns a 2" reach advantage, but should get stuck on the back foot from the opening bell and will be forced to weather the storm.

However, despite his age, Fugitt has both excellent cardio and has been forced to execute similar gameplans in his two most recent fights – against aggressive early finishers Mike Malott and Josh Quinlan – to differing degrees of success.

Fugitt is extremely hittable (51% striking defense), and I'm concerned that there could be a significant gap in speed and athleticism between the two fighters. However, I would target Fugitt Live after Round 1 if he's able to survive the early onslaught.

Bets

• Adam Fugitt Live after Round 1

Ateba Gautier vs. Robert Valentin 

Projection: Gautier (76.1%)

Ateba Gautier is a potentially elite prospect in the middleweight division, with incredible athleticism but a raw skillset at 23 years old; and similar to Dulatov, there's a lot that we don't know about Gautier's skillset – cardio, resilience, durability, and especially defensive grappling or wrestling abilities. However, physically, he looks like the computer-generated champion you'd have to fight in a video game.

Robert Valentin has spent his first two UFC bouts getting outwrestled by Ryan Loder and Torrez Finney (combined 9 of 20 takedowns, and 18:01 control in 21:49 fight time) but will finally get a chance to show off his striking; and he could have a grappling advantage of his own against Gautier; which he could pursue given the size discrepancy (2" shorter, 4" reach disadvantage).

If you're going to bet Valentin (projected +318), I would wait for the peak underdog price on fight day, as more parlay and prop money comes in on Gautier. Alternatively – or in addition – sprinkle his odds to win inside the distance (projected +450, listed +550) in a fight lined at -600 to end inside the distance.

Bets

• TBD (wait for peak price on Valentin on fight day)

Francisco Prado vs. Nikolay Veretennikov 

Projection: Prado (60.1%)

For additional information on this matchup, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the full fight preview from my colleague, Billy Ward.

Francisco Prado is 1-3 in the UFC, but has fought strong competition – including Jake Matthews and Daniel Zellhuber – and made a change before his last fight; moving his camp to American Top Team (where he's training with Dustin Poirier and other high-level UFC fighters).

Prado is also 13 years younger than Nikolay Veretennikov, who is the bigger man (3" taller, 5" reach advantage) but far more one-dimensional than Prado, who showed a willingness to grapple against Matthews proactively (landed one of six takedown attempts, 2:16 control time).

To his credit, Veretennikov has also fought strong competition (Michael Morales, Danny Barlow and Austin Vanderford – who competed for a Bellator title) and he should be the more technical striker in this matchup.

Bets

• Francisco Prado (-145, 0.25u at Caesars); bet to -150

Marvin Vettori vs. Brendan Allen 

Projection: Allen (54.0%)

After his line peaked as high as +260, Marvin Vettori has taken heavy steam toward my projected line of +118, and my price target of +130 pre-fight on this matchup, in a fight heavily favored to go to decision (projected -315, listed -255).

Still, you might be able to find the peak price on the underdog live after Round 1. Allen is often a fast starter who fades in the second half of his fights. Conversely, Vettori has proven 25-minute cardio and elite durability, and has never been submitted in his professional career.

Vettori should have the tools to stay competitive in this fight, including strong takedown defense (69%), underrated grappling (a 76% control rate compared to 55% for Allen), and solid output. Allen often loses position trying to hunt submissions, which allows his opponents room to escape and scramble back to their feet.

Vettori is slightly more efficient than Allen at distance (- -0.1 to -0.7 strike differential per minute). Still, Allen should have a clear speed advantage in the opening round, which will dissipate the longer the fight goes.

Bet Vettori pre-fight to +130 and consider playing his decision prop (projected +182, listed +260) to +200. Additionally, target Vettori live after Round 1, when Allen typically begins to slow down.

Bets

• Marvin Vettori (+175, 0.35u) at Fanatics (bet to +130)
• Marvin Vettori Live after Round 1

Kyler Phillips vs. Vinicius Oliveira 

Projection: Oliveira (51.9%)

Kyler Phillips is a fast starter – and often looks like a future world champion for the first five minutes of his fights – but he consistently gasses out after the five to seven minute mark of his contests. As a result, if you bet Phillips pre-fight at underdog odds, it's with the understanding that you're looking to bet the other side at plus money live after round 1, to lock in a profit.

Phillips' moneyline has moved down from +160 for this contest, and while I still show pre-fight value, his moneyline (projected +108, listed +124) – and would consider betting him down to +115 – it's up to you as to how to play this fight.

Considering most of the value has been taken out of that line, I'm going to wait until fight day and reassess, but you have a few options.

Whether you bet on Phillips pre-fight or not, target Oliveira live after Round 1.  Alternatively, consider an SGP with Oliveira and the Over 1.5 Rounds (+120) or his odds to win in Round 2 (+1000) or Round 3 (+1500).

Phillips should have the early grappling upside; he's extremely dynamic from top position, and Oliveira has struggled when put on his back (particularly in the Benardo Sopaj fight). Still, Oliveira has made improvements since entering the UFC and has begun to incorporate some of his offensive wrestling techniques.

Phillips is a highly dynamic striker, too, but Oliveira has proven more efficient (+2.6 to +1.3 landed per minute) and likes to build his way into this fight and take over with pace and pressure down the stretch.

Bets

• Vinicius Oliveira Live after Round 1

Michael Johnson vs. Daniel Zellhuber 

Projection: Zellhuber (87.9%)

For additional information on this matchup, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the full fight preview from my colleague, John Lanfranca.

Michael Johnson fought the best lightweights in the world (Dustin Poirier, Nate Diaz, Beneil Dariush, Khabib Nurmagomedov, Edson Barboza, among others) in his prime, but has served as a gatekeeper in the latter half of his career, and has to be nearing the end of his promotional run, heading into his 43rd professional bout at age 39.

Johnson hasn't faced many rising prospects in his recent tenure, and will be fighting a taller, longer, and quicker athlete in the 26-year-old Daniel Zellhuber (3" taller, 4" reach advantage).

Johnson has accumulated superior striking stats (+1.4 to -0.4 differential per minute) against better competition than Zellhuber has faced. He also has some offensive wrestling upside (attempts 0.7 takedowns per five minutes, 40% accuracy). Still, Zellhuber utilizes his range effectively, and Johnson is better at pressuring and boxing in the pocket than he is at fighting from distance or countering off the back foot.

Johnson has the tools to be competitive in this matchup, but Zellhuber has such significant advantages in physique and age that it justifies his favoritism. When there is at least a decade between MMA opponents, the younger fighter has won nearly 71% of the time at average odds of -141 (58.5%); more than 12% above expectation.

I project value on both the fight to end inside the distance (projected -186, listed -150) and the Under 2.5 Rounds.

Additionally, I project value in Zellhuber winning either by KO/TKO (projected +107, listed +180) or inside the distance (projected -138, listed -120).

Bets

• Daniel Zellhuber wins Inside the Distance (-115, 0.25u) at ESPNBet (bet to -125)
• Under 2.5 Rounds (-110, 0.25u) at Circa (bet to -130)

Dan Ige vs. Patricio Freire 

Projection: Ige (74.2%)

For additional information on this matchup, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the full fight preview from my colleague, John Lanfranca.

Aside from Michael Venom Page, the recently signed Bellator and PFL talent has generally underperformed in the UFC. Patricio Freire, aka Pitbull, looked out of place in his loss to Yair Rodriguez, getting outstruck 70-17 at distance, knocked down, and taken down by the kickboxer.

Dan Ige's recent record is flattered by the fact that several of those fights came on short notice, including his win over Sean Woodson, and competitive loss to Diego Lopes, winning round three mere hours after taking the fight.

Ige is the younger, faster man in the matchup, but he's also far more durable, carries significant power for the 145-pound division, and has a significant 4" reach advantage; typically, Ige has to fight at a reach disadvantage. Moreover, Ige's hands are much more dangerous than Yair's, and given the fact that Patricio is backing straight up to the fence and freezing in his late thirties, Ige should have opportunities to hurt him and close the show.

I projected Ige as a -287 favorite in this matchup and would bet his moneyline up to -250; but you could take a discount with his decision or KO double chance prop (projected -256, listed -185); Ige hasn't even attempted a submission in the UFC since 2019, and him getting the well-rounded Patricio by submission seems unlikely, aside from a club and sub.

Pitbull – a 44-fight veteran and former two-division Bellator champion – could certainly make this fight more competitive than the line suggests, but at age 39, he's relatively ancient for the division, and continuing to cut weight in his late thirties should further compromise his chin.

Bets

• Dan Ige (-200, 0.25u) at BetWay (bet to -250)

Costa is 1-4 in his past five fights, with his only win over a retiring, aged Luke Rockhold, who was not finished and had more success in that fight than most expected he would. Before the Rockhold win, Costa's most recent victory was his 2019 performance against Yoel Romero. He offers solid volume when aggressive and motivated (lands about 6.5 strikes per minute at distance when he's proactive) and likely has some offensive grappling upside against Kopylov, but his motivation level is highly enigmatic.

Kopylov is the more efficient stiker (+0.4 to -0.6 strike differential per minute at distance) and has a 3" reach advantage, but he tends to slow when he's forced to fight at a high pace, or particularly, when he has to wrestle defensively; its in Costa's best interest to both pressure and mix things up but he's only shot four total takedowns in the UFC (landed three). Possible that Kopylov's gas tank is improving – following the round three knockout of Chris Curtis – but it is unlikely at age 34.

I project a slight edge for Costa to win by decision (projected +417, listed +450), but I think his finish equity builds late as Kopylov potentially fades. The SGP payout on Costa and Over 1.5 (+280 at DraftKings) isn't enticing enough to play the fight that way, either.

Structure Costa by decision with Costa in Round 3 (+2000) small, or wait to live bet Costa after Round 1; Kopylov should find success with the body kick early and force Costa to press forward.

Sean Zerillo's UFC 318 Picks & Predictions

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Moneyline Bets

• Francisco Prado (-145, 0.25u) at Caesars (bet to -150)
• Marvin Vettori (+175, 0.35u) at Fanatics (bet to +130)
• Dan Ige (-200, 0.25u) at BetWay (bet to -250)
• Max Holloway (-130, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -150)

Prop Bets and Totals

• Judice/Caliari, Fight Goes to Decision (-190, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to -250
• Brzeski/Spann, Over 1.5 Rounds (+150, 0.2u) at DraftKings (bet to +135)
• Brzeski/Spann, Fight goes to Decision (+550, 0.05u) at ESPNBet (bet to +475)
• Crute/Prachnio, Over 1.5 Rounds (-160, 0.25u) at ESPNBet (bet to -175)
• Daniel Zellhuber wins Inside the Distance (-115, 0.25u) at ESPNBet (bet to -125)
• Zellhuber/Johnson, Under 2.5 Rounds (-110, 0.25u) at BallyBet (bet to -130)
• Max Holloway wins by KO/TKO (+400, 0.1u) at FanDuel (bet to +375)

Parlays

• TBD

Live Bets

• Lukasz Brzeski Live after Round 1
• Jimmy Crute Live after Round 1
• Adam Fugitt Live after Round 1
• Marvin Vettori Live after Round 1
• Vinicius Oliveira Live after Round 1
• Paulo Costa Live after Round 1