UFC Fight Night: Ovince Saint Preux vs. Jamahal Hill Odds & Picks (Saturday, Dec. 5)
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: Ovince Saint Preux pays tribute to Chadwick Boseman after his knockout victory.
- Saturday's UFC Fight Night co-main event between Ovince Saint Pruex and Jamahal Hill is a classic matchup of youth vs. experience.
- Which of those two wins out tonight? Sean Zerillo previews the matchup, including why the odds suggest there's value on the dog.
Ovince Saint Preux vs. Jamahal Hill Odds
|Saint Preux odds||+140 [BET NOW]|
|Hill odds||-165 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (+115/-140) [BET NOW]|
|Venue||UFC Apex, Las Vegas|
|Time||Approx. 11:50 p.m. ET|
MMA veteran and top-15 Light Heavyweight Ovince Saint Pruex is set to face Contender Series graduate Jamahal Hill in Saturday’s Fight Night co-main event at the UFC Apex.
Saint Pruex has been active this year despite the pandemic (and contracting COVID-19 in August) as he prepares for his third fight of 2020. Hill, a relative newcomer by comparison, has fought just three times in the UFC, including the Contender Series win, but his most recent fight was ruled a no contest. Hill will have his mettle tested against a fighter who has seen more action at Light Heavyweight than all but two men — Jon Jones and Mauricio Rua.
So which fighter has the edge in this matchup? I’ll break down the matchup and betting odds below, but you can find my full breakdown of Saturday’s card here.
Tale of the Tape
|Record||21-14||6-0 (2 NC)|
|Avg. Fight Time||9:42||8:47|
|Weight (pounds)||205 lbs.||205 lbs.|
|Date of birth||4/8/83||5/19/91|
|Sig Strikes Per Min||2.64||7.90|
|SS Absorbed Per Min||2.88||2.81|
|Take Down Avg||1.23||0.0|
St. Preux (“OSP”) was the only fighter to miss weight on Friday, coming in 1.5 pounds over the Light Heavyweight limit – but I generally remain unconcerned when a fighter misses weight.
With a 48% win rate, at average odds of +102, fighters who miss weight still win just as often as their odds imply.
Saint Preux vs. Hill Pick
This matchup comes down to the speed and volume of Hill against the experience and versatility of OSP.
This is a massive step up in competition for the undefeated Hill (two no contests) and facing another athletic southpaw with the same reach, it’s going to be difficult to keep OSP from closing distance unless he’s constantly moving.
Surely, OSP will look to test Hill’s subpar takedown defense (53%) at some point, but both of these men are hittable, and I suspect that we see a rangy standup battle for the majority of the first round.
It may take OSP some time to find his opening for a takedown, but he should have a more significant edge on the mat than Hill has on the feet.
Despite the age gap stats that I mentioned earlier, I show projected value on OSP’s moneyline (play to +138), his odds to win inside the distance (projected +192, play to +220), and for the fight to end inside the distance (play to -212).
I see Hill as more of a point fighter at this level, and OSP’s last knockout loss came in 2016. If anyone gets the finish here, I’m siding with the underdog.
I only have a play on the OSP moneyline, for now, but I may add the OSP ITD prop.
Pick: Ovince St. Preux (+140)