Read our UFC London predictions for this live event on Saturday from the O2 Arena in London. We've got daytime MMA with this card in Europe, so the prelims start at 1:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+ streaming.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 14-fight lineup to identify their UFC best bets and favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC London Moneyline Projections
UFC London Prop Projections
Billy Ward, Staff Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 3:30 p.m. and 4:14 p.m. ET
On this week's UFC Betting Preview, our best bets for the card included Sean on Losene "Black Panther" Keita, and myself on Kurtis "The Pink Panther" Campbell. While I'm normally fairly anti-parlay — especially in the UFC, where fights don't happen simultaneously — this one is too good to pass up.
I made the case for Campbell in my early-week Luck Ratings article. Campbell impressed me with his striking on the Contender Series after I was already high on him as a prospect, thanks to his grappling. The Paddy Pimblett training partner is 8-0 as a pro, still just 23 years old, and seems to be making massive physical and technical improvements between fights.
He's also been given a fairly friendly debut matchup this week in Danny Silva, who is 2-1 in the UFC but needed split decisions in both of his victories to get the job done. Silva has primarily relied on takedowns to win close rounds in his successful performances, but that's probably a bad idea against Campbell. Not only is he a dangerous man to grapple with, but I doubt a few empty takedowns will be enough to sway the judges in London to give Silva rounds.
Regardless, my early bet on Campbell at -210 has paid off, with the best price on him now around -230. Since the opportunity to get his moneyline at the best price is long gone, it makes sense to pair him with another option.
Which is where Keita comes in. The former Oktagon MMA champion is 16-1 as a pro with his only loss coming via injury, and joined the UFC with a ton of hype last fall, but his planned debut was cancelled due to him missing weight. He's a massive featherweight, and taking on a former bantamweight in Nathaniel Wood who is often physically over-matched as a featherweight. Wood has overcome that with superior skill, but I don't think he has that much of an edge against Keita.
With Keita also catching plenty of steam in the markets this week and getting bet down to -240 or so, it also makes sense to pair him with another favorite to cut down on the juice. It makes even more sense when we have multi colored "Panthers" on the card to play them together.
At the time of this writing, the best odds on the parlay are +109 at FanDuel, but be sure to tail via the Playbook Link to get the best odds available at the time.
Pick: Kurtis Campbell + Losene Keita +109 (FanDuel)
Brando Pericic vs. Louie Sutherland | Michael Page vs. Sam Patterson
Sean Zerillo, Senior Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 3:15 p.m. ET and 5:45 p.m. ET
Since Billy went with a pair of favorites for his combined best bets this week, I decided to give out my two favorite underdogs on the card.
We're aligned on the local Heavyweight, Louie Sutherland – as discussed on this week's Action Network Podcast. My model set his moneyline closer to +175 against the City Kickboxing-trained Brando Pericic, who earned a contract on Contender Series at a similar price point with a two-minute knockout last September.
Sutherland – the former Levels Fight League champion in the Netherlands – lost his UFC debut against Valter Walker via heel hook as a +330 underdog in October.
Pericic has finished all his professional opponents in under six minutes. If Sutherland (2-3 on the scorecards) can extend the fight, I suspect he can muscle Pericic around in the clinch and win a sloppy Heavyweight decision with physicality up against the fence.
Sutherland is the smaller man (2" shorter, 3" reach discrepancy), so he will need to crash the pocket, close the distance, and make things dirty to win this fight. Still, he's at his best when opponents aren't trying to grapple him, and if Pericic is content to deploy a range-based kickboxing style, judges may prefer Sutherland's forward pressure and overhands.
Take "The Vanilla Gorilla" down to +185, bet the Over 1.5 rounds at even money or better, and target a live bet on Sutherland either after the first round or midway through the second round.
Sam Patterson will take on Michael Page ("MVP") in the featured bout on Saturday's main card, in a matchup of former training partners.
MVP is the more dynamic and efficient striker (+1.4 to +1.1 differential per minute at distance) and the more durable man. Still, Patterson has the more proactive style, averaging 5.5 strikes landed and 1 takedown attempt per 5 minutes at distance, compared to 3.5 and 0.7 for MVP, respectively.
Patterson is nine years younger than his former teammate and is also the far superior grappler (79% to 17% control rate), but he has actually spent more of his UFC fight time at striking distance (83% to 58%) than his opponent.
I do think that prior training room experience is more beneficial for Patterson than it is for MVP; seeing MVP's unique footwork, movement, and striking in the cage is often a mystery and a significant adjustment for his MMA opponents; fighters who have gone against Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson have had the same difficulty adjusting to the point-fighting karate style and tempo.
Still, Patterson has more familiarity with MVP's style than most, and the lack of need for a feeling-out period against a 39-year-old version of his former teammate, who is likely fractionally slower than he used to be, should benefit the underdog. I'd hope Paterson goes right after him in the grappling and uses his long limbs to leverage MVP in the clinch and take this fight to the mat.
I projected Patterson's moneyline at +126, and would bet him down to +135.
Pick: Louie Sutherland +220 (BetMGM) | Sam Pattterson +165 (HardRockBet)
