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UFC on ESPN 42 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Bryan Barberena vs. Rafael dos Anjos: Take This Method-of-victory Bet (Saturday, December 3)

UFC on ESPN 42 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Bryan Barberena vs. Rafael dos Anjos: Take This Method-of-victory Bet  (Saturday, December 3) article feature image
Credit:

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC welterweight Rafael dos Anjos of Brazil

  • Former champion Rafael dos Anjos is a heavy favorite heading into his UFC Orlando co-headliner with Bryan Barberena.
  • Despite the lopsided line, there's a way to bet the favorite at -125 odds.
  • Read below as Manpreet Jhass shares his betting strategy for this intriguing welterweight clash.

Bryan Barberena vs. Rafael dos Anjos Odds

Barberena Odds
+400
dos Anjos Odds
-620
Over/Under
2.5 (-196 / +152)
Venue
Amway Center in Orlando, FL
Time
Approx. midnight ET
Channel
ESPN
Odds as of Thursday and via FanDuel.

The UFC returns this weekend for its final stretch of the year. Kicking it off will be a trip down to Orlando, Florida, where Kevin Holland will be looking to add the biggest name to his resume when he faces off against Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson.

The UFC on ESPN 42 co-main event also takes place in the welterweight division and it has Rafael dos Anjos returning to the weight class as he takes on the always tough and gritty Bryan Barberena.

Dos Anjos is returning to the welterweight division after a recent 2-1 run at lightweight,  and this will likely be his final run at gold given that he just turned 38.

Barberena is hoping to add another UFC legend to his resume and to extend his winning streak to four.

Will dos Anjos be successful in his return to welterweight? Or will Barberena spoil his plans and pull off a gigantic upset?

Read on to find out how these two match up and if there is any way to pull some dollars out of this fight.

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Tale of the Tape

Barberena dos Anjos
Record 18-8 31-14
Avg. Fight Time 12:20 14:48
Height 6’0″ 5’8″
Weight (pounds) 170 lbs. 155 lbs.
Reach (inches) 72″ 70″
Stance Southpaw Southpaw
Date of birth 5/3/1989 10/26/1984
Sig Strikes Per Min 6.11 3.58
SS Accuracy 48% 46%
SS Absorbed Per Min 5.01 3.23
SS Defense 44% 61%
Take Down Avg 0.16 1.96
TD Acc 25% 34%
TD Def 55% 59%
Submission Avg 0.3 0.5

Dos Anjos is a vet who has captured the UFC lightweight title while also earning a welterweight title shot in his first stint in that division. He has accrued a 20-12 UFC record since making his debut back in 2008.

With one of the most complete mixed martial arts styles in the game, dos Anjos is a tough out for the majority of his opponents. I personally prefer him down at lightweight; the last time dos Anjos was at welterweight, it showed that the size disadvantage he would be at is too much for him.

That disadvantage is exaggerated even more when he fights competent wrestlers, which this division is full of at the top. However, he can still find success against certain fighters.

When at his best, dos Anjos can blend his takedowns behind combinations. His cardio seems endless, which helps him break down his opponents and drown them. His striking is powerful and comes in volume. His ground game is dominant, and he is a very crafty submission artist.

Barberena is riding a three-fight winning streak and most recently defeated Matt Brown and Robbie Lawler. The former was a bit of a back-and-forth affair with Barberena landing more damaging blows in the striking realm, but he did give up five takedowns. The latter was a complete slugfest in which he managed to finish Lawler in the second round.

Barberena has carved out a solid spot for himself on the roster given his style and entertaining nature. He likes to throw bombs, he has solid durability, and he isn’t intimidated by whoever is standing across the cage from him.

Unfortunately for Barberena, he finds himself against an opponent who has too much firepower and too many paths to victory.

Barberena vs. dos Anjos Pick

It came as no surprise that dos Anjos was in the -300 range when odds dropped and got immediately bet up into the -500 range. He has Barberena covered pretty much everywhere in this fight.

Barberena is going to have to hope that age is starting to catch up with dos Anjos and that his recent loss to Rafael Fiziev is a sign of crumbling durability. His only hope in my opinion is to catch dos Anjos on the chin and put him away early.

Dos Anjos is too well-versed in pressure, striking, and grappling to succumb to the power of Barberena. Dos Anjos will put him on his heels at the first bell and land a takedown within two minutes of this fight beginning.

Historically, Barberena is tough to put away. Dos Anjos doesn’t mind playing it safe either, and I think the majority of that will be based on him grinding out Barberena from top position after securing a takedown.

I do not mind people parlaying dos Anjos at this price tag since I am not completely sold on a method of victory here for dos Anjos. I do lean with RDA winning by decision though I was hoping for a better line.

I’ll sprinkle dos Anjos by decision at -125, but I feel comfortable going up to only -135

Pick: Rafael dos Anjos by decision (-125 at FanDuel)

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