Read our UFC Vegas 115 predictions for this live event on Saturday from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. We're back to our usual 5:00 p.m. ET (2 p.m. PT) start time for the prelims of the 13-fight card.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 13-fight lineup to identify their UFC best bets and favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
Maybe I'm relying too heavily on my priors — or my admitted grappler bias — with both fighters in this main card matchup, but I'm somewhat surprised at how wide the line is in this fight.
Jose Delano was a massive favorite against an overmatched opponent on the Contender Series, but was unable to put Manuel Exposito away despite landing 146 significant strikes. That win has aged badly (such that a win can), with Exposito getting finished in the first round in a regional fight in his follow-up performance.
On the other hand, I was pretty high on Robert Ruchala when he entered the UFC. The former KSW champion came into the promotion with a 10-1 record, his only career loss coming via fourth-round soccer kick at the hands (well, feet) of uber-prospect Salahdien Parnasse. However, Ruchala was given a tough test for his debut, fighting William Gomis (5-1 UFC record) on the Frenchman's home turf.
Ruchala acquitted himself well despite the loss, landing a pair of takedowns and even convincing around 30% of fans polled that he deserved to win the fight. He didn't, but landing a pair of takedowns and keeping pace on the feet with Gomis is a moral victory if nothing else, especially given the UFC experience gap between the two fighters.
Now it's Ruchala's turn to take on the debuting Delano, who was taken down twice by a considerably worse grappler on the Contender Series. Ruchala is a national BJJ champion in Poland, a perhaps under-the-radar hotbed for grappling. While it feels a bit off betting on a Polish fighter over a Brazilian on the strength of his grappling potential, I'm comforted by the nearly three-to-one odds on Ruchala.
I logged Ruchala at +285 earlier this week in the Action App, and the market has agreed with me, pushing his line down a bit. However, I'm still more than ok with his current best odds of +275, which is his line at Caesars Sportsbook.
Tail me by following my Playbook Link to get the best available odds when you make your bet, which I'd take down to +200.
Even though this is a pick'em fight, public support is largely backing Virna Jandiroba this week (selected at a 68% clip in my public data sample), against a fighter six years her junior. As a result, my market-weighted model projects Ricci as a -128 favorite, and I would bet her moneyline to -115.
Jandiroba is the taller and longer fighter (2" taller, 3" reach) and the more efficient distance striker (-0.8 to -1.7 differential per minute at distance), but Ricci carries more power in her hands and should land the more damaging blows, particularly with her elbows in the clinch.
Jandiroba is a proactive wrestler (averages 5.7 takedown attempts per five minutes at distance) with an excellent top game, but Ricci has shown solid takedown defense (denied 11 of 14 attempts) and will aggressively scramble back to her feet after getting put flat on her back. Ricci's win over Gillian Robertson (denied three of four takedowns while landing three of her own) has aged extremely well. She comes from a judo background and is an underrated jiu-jitsu practitioner; Ricci has controlled 95% of her grappling positions in the UFC, compared to just 76% for Jandiroba.
If Jandiroba gets her down, I don't think it'll be for long. And even if Jandiroba racks up six to seven minutes of top control during the fight, she won't necessarily do enough damage to separate herself on the scorecards, in the event that Ricci spends the other half of each round outlanding Virna on the feet.
Jandiroba kills a lot of clock with control time, especially at the APEX, where she can swarm her opponents more consistently, but she underutilizes both that time and those positions relative to the potential damage she could inflict. She also tends to slow down as her fights progress, which should favor both Ricci and her age advantage as the fight goes on.
Play Tabatha Ricci to -115 pre-fight, but also consider a live entry on her odds again after Round 1; the first round should be Virna's best round, and I'd expect Ricci to take over in the back half of the fight; unless she's getting completely outwrestled and is stuck on bottom for the duration of the matchup.
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