Virna Jandiroba vs. Tabatha Ricci Odds
| Jandiroba Odds | -130 |
| Ricci Odds | +110 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-445/+310) |
| Location | UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 10:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Vegas 115 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Vegas 115 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Virna Jandiroba vs. Tabatha Ricci prediction for UFC Vegas 115 on Saturday, April 4, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
The strawweight division is in a bit of a holding pattern, with current champion Mackenzie Dern expected to defend the title she won against Jandiroba against Weili Zhang, who vacated the belt to move up to flyweight, but no fight on the books. That makes this matchup between potential contenders much more important. A win for either woman — but particularly Ricci — could get them on the shortlist for a championship fight in 2026, depending on how the top of the division shakes out.
Here's my Jandiroba vs. Ricci pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Jandiroba | Ricci | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 22-4 | 12-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:09 | 12:49 |
| Height | 5'3" | 5'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 115 lbs. | 115 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 64" | 61" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 5/30/1988 | 2/21/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.33 | 4.18 |
| SS Accuracy | 41% | 36% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.90 | 5.19 |
| SS Defense | 55% | 57% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.85 | 2.69 |
| TD Acc | 37% | 37% |
| TD Def | 74% | 78% |
| Submission Avg | 1.5 | 0.1 |
Virna Jandiroba's last fight was for the interim title against Mackenzie Dern, in a battle of grappler vs grappler. She's got a somewhat similar stylistic challenge this time around against Tabatha Ricci, though I'd argue that "Baby Shark" has quietly become a threat on the feet as well.
That could be a problem for Jandiroba in this matchup. The accomplished jiu-jitsu practitioner actually got the better of the grappling exchanges (by and large) with Dern, picking up nine takedowns over the 25-minute fight. However, Dern outlanded Jandiroba in three of the five rounds in her title win.
Jandiroba fights out of a wide stance, which leaves her open to leg kicks and limits her lateral movement. The upshot is that it gives her a very sturdy base from which to throw right hands and launch into takedown attempts. She's had a ton of success against lesser grapplers in the division via her wrestling and top pressure, which allows her to control fights without taking much risk or exposing herself to much damage.
Where that plan falls apart is against similarly technical grapplers like Dern — a multiple-time BJJ world champion — and potentially Ricci. Virna is dedicated to the idea of establishing control before doing damage or hunting submissions from the top, which is a generally advisable strategy, but becomes problematic when she's unable to settle into comfortable control positions. All four of her UFC losses are decisions against other high-level grapplers, Dern twice, plus Amanda Ribas and Carla Esparza.
Conversely, the three UFC losses for Ricci have all been due to being out-struck. She was stopped at flyweight by Manon Fiorot in her short-notice debut, and has close decision losses to Yan Xionan and Loppy Godinez. Those fights had just 16 seconds of combined ground time for either fighter.
Since those losses, her striking has made huge improvements, though. She's now in a relationship with Zuffa Boxing standout Callum Walsh, which has seemingly paid dividends in her striking game.
Never was that more on display than her win against Amanda Ribas, which she finished with a brutal elbow along the fence after generally out-striking Ribas:
That's the same Ribas who was able to defeat Jandiroba with striking in 2021, so it's a good sign for Ricci's chances in striking exchanges this time around. Of course, we could apply this MMA math the other way, as Jandiroba has wins over both strawweights who've defeated Ricci.
Still, it's hard to see Jandiroba's ceiling as much more than a close decision via control time and takedowns, whereas Ricci is capable of producing much bigger moments. Besides her improving striking, she's also a Judo black belt, and a big throw or two likely plays better to the judges than Jandiroba's lower-impact wrestling takedowns.
Betting Insight
The other important factor here is the age of both women. Jandiroba was never an elite athlete, and turns 38 next month. At the UFC's smallest weight class, where speed and timing reign supreme, it's hard to age gracefully.
At 31, Ricci is squarely in her athletic prime and has done the work to round out her game as a complete mixed martial artist. While she's still a bit small for the division, she can overcome that with speed and technique, and I expect her to do so here.
This one probably ends up as a sweaty decision, with Jandiroba using her strength to pick up some takedowns while Ricci uses her high-volume striking to chip away at Jandiroba. "Fight to be won by split or majority decision" is just +250 at DraftKings, which isn't worth betting but is a strong indicator of how close it likely ends up. That's all the more reason to take the plus-money side, though.
Ricci is now +110 at DraftKings thanks to some slight movement against her during the week, making her the value side in a fight where I'd lean her way anyway. I'd bet her down to even money.
Billy's Pick: Tabatha Ricci +110 (DraftKings)
