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UFC Vegas 63 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Max Griffin vs. Tim Means: The Favorite Is the Right Side (October 29)

UFC Vegas 63 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Max Griffin vs. Tim Means: The Favorite Is the Right Side (October 29) article feature image
Credit:

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: Max Griffin.

  • Welterweights Max Griffin and Tim Means meet in the Co-Main Event of Saturday's UFC Vegas 63 card.
  • Griffin is a strong favorite to win outright (-190 odds) and UFC analyst Manpreet Jhass thinks there's still value on the line.
  • Read his full fight breakdown and betting pick below.

Max Griffin vs. Tim Means Odds

Griffin Odds
-190
Means Odds
+160
Over/Under
2.5 (-165 / +135)
Venue
UFC Apex in Las Vegas
Time
8:30 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN+
Odds as of Friday and via Caesars.

The UFC circus heads back home to Las Vegas this weekend and in the co-headliner we have a battle between veteran welterweights Tim Means and Max Griffin.

Means looks to rebound from the loss he took at the hands of Kevin Holland back in June. Griffin will also be looking to rebound from a loss he took back in March to veteran Neil Magny.

Can Means dispatch of Griffin with his diverse striking skill set? Or will Griffin’s power and athleticism prove to be too much?

Read on to find how how these veterans match up with one another and how we can capitalize on this from a betting perspective.

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Tale of the Tape

Griffin Means
Record 32-13-1 18-9
Avg. Fight Time 10:00 12:30
Height 6’2″ 5’11”
Weight (pounds) 170 lbs. 170 lbs.
Reach (inches) 75″ 76%
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Date of birth 2/20/1984 11/29/1985
Sig Strikes Per Min 5.01 4.36
SS Accuracy 48% 50%
SS Absorbed Per Min 3.63 3.94
SS Defense 61% 57%
Take Down Avg. 1.02 1.48
TD Acc 39% 50%
TD Def 66% 75%
Submission Avg. 0.2 0.4

Means is a 25-fight UFC veteran who has faced a wide variety of competitors. His longest winning streak inside the UFC came back in 2014/2015 when he managed to string together four straight victories, until he ran into Matt Brown at UFC 189. He came close to tying that record, had he gotten his hand raised back in June against Kevin Holland, but that fight was a great indicator of his current ceiling.

Means is four months shy of turning 39 and you can tell by his diminishing speed that his age is starting to show. He had a decent game plan against Holland, but the speed disadvantage in that fight was clear and Holland was able to have a field day.

At his best, Means traverses the cage efficiently, utilizes a diverse striking skill set by throwing in combinations and mixing up his target, and also shows solid striking defense with his head movement. He has a sneaky submission game, but most recently he’s been using his superior striking to get his hand raised. The durability was an advantage he would bring into his fights earlier in his career, but now that is starting to dwindle we are starting to see the decline of his career.

Griffin, who is no spring chicken either, comes into his 14th UFC bout with a chip on his shoulder. He believes he deserved to get the judges’ decision in his last bout against Magny. That loss snapped a three-fight winning streak, which is his UFC-best at this point.

Griffin has successfully used his power and athleticism to put the hurting on his opponents in recent fights. Prior to his finish of Ramiz Brahimaj, Griffin had only finished one other opponent in the UFC.

In his last three wins, he’s finished two of them. Not many can fault him for not making it three finishes in those three wins considering Carlos Condit is one of the hardest fighters to stop. He hurt Magny very badly in their fight too, but couldn’t capitalize to get him out of there.

Griffin has a solid all-around game, but if you are technically better than him in certain aspects you can exploit that. Griffin’s speed and power has mainly been his advantage and I think that will ring true this weekend as well.

Griffin vs. Means Pick

My eyes always brighten a tad when I see Means as an underdog. He will fight for your money and he has a solid skill set to cash that ticket for you.

Unfortunately, like I stated above, his speed and durability are significantly deteriorating and that could be his downfall in this match up.

Means could find early success with his combinations and variety of attack, but I don’t think that will last too long. I think Griffin will be too fast for him here and at a certain point Griffin will find that chin and put Means down.

I think the odds are on point and I’d play Griffin up to -200. If you want to take it a step further, you can also play his knockout prop, which is hovering around +250.

The Pick: Max Griffin Moneyline (-180)

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