UFC Vegas 64 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Neil Magny vs. Daniel Rodriguez: Don’t Doubt the Veteran Savvy (Saturday, November 5)

UFC Vegas 64 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Neil Magny vs. Daniel Rodriguez: Don’t Doubt the Veteran Savvy (Saturday, November 5) article feature image

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC welterweight Neil Magny

  • The UFC Vegas 64 co-main event on Saturday features a pivotal welterweight bout between Neil Magny and Daniel Rodriguez.
  • Can Rodriguez's volume overcome Magny's notorious pressure and pace?
  • Manpreet Jhass breaks down his favorite bet for the matchup below.

Neil Magny vs. Daniel Rodriguez Odds

Magny Odds
Rodriguez Odds
2.5 (-210 / +170)
UFC Apex in Las Vegas
8:30 p.m. ET
Odds as of Friday and via BetMGM.

The UFC remains at the Apex facility in Las Vegas this weekend with a card headlined by a high-stakes women's strawweight matchup. And in the UFC Vegas 64 co-headliner, we have a pivotal welterweight bout between Neil Magny and Daniel Rodriguez.

Magny looks to avoid his first losing skid since 2013 by rebounding from his loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov back in June.

Rodriguez, meanwhile, looks to add the most credentialed name to his win column while extending his winning streak to five.

Can the ultra-veteran Magny thwart the hot streak of Rodriguez? Or will Rodriguez pass the gate that Magny guards to the top 10?

Read on to find out how these fighters match up against one another as well as how to possibly squeeze a couple of bucks out of it.

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Tale of the Tape

Avg. Fight Time12:4611:39
Weight (pounds)170 lbs.170 lbs.
Reach (inches)80"74"
Date of birth8/3/198712/31/1986
Sig Strikes Per Min3.597.75
SS Accuracy46%49%
SS Absorbed Per Min2.165.35
SS Defense55%57%
Take Down Avg2.310.72
TD Acc40%55%
TD Def57%73%
Submission Avg0.30.1

With a win this weekend, Magny will surpass Georges St-Pierre for most UFC welterweight victories (20). He already holds the record for most welterweight victories by way of decision at 13. This is all over 27 UFC fights spanning the last 10 years.

As a gambler, Magny has a very reliable style of fighting: pressure, pace, constant movement, consistent output, and a style that many fighters struggle to get a beat on. The best part of his game is his endless gas tank. Opponents may be more skilled than him, but Magny grinds them down from the first bell and starts to drown them near the latter half of the fight.

Magny's kryptonite has mainly been two styles. One is heavy grapplers such as Rakhmonov, Rafael dos Anjos and Michael Chiesa. The other style is someone who is far superior with his striking game, like Santiago Ponzinibbio and Lorenz Larkin. When he fights a level of opponent between those two extremes, he usually comes out unscathed and with his hand raised.

That's one 𝑺𝑬𝑡𝑺𝑨𝑻𝑰𝑢𝑡𝑨𝑳 finish!πŸ”₯@NeilMagny goes for Octagon win number 2️⃣0️⃣ in three days!

πŸ“±πŸ“ΊπŸ’» #UFCVegas64 | π‘πŽπƒπ‘πˆπ†π”π„π™ 𝐯𝐬 π‹π„πŒπŽπ’ | NOV 6 pic.twitter.com/uMKFwaT7tv

β€” UFC_Asia (@UFC_Asia) November 3, 2022

Last time out, Rodriguez got caught in the UFC 279 crossfire when Khamzat Chimaev egregiously missed weight. Rodriguez, who had already accepted a short-notice fight with Kevin Holland to help bolster a relatively weak pay-per-view card, was now given a last-minute opponent change against someone with a completely different style.

Although Rodriguez came out victoriously, a lot of people questioned the decision in that one and whether he deserved to get his hand raised.

When at his best, Rodriguez utilizes a high-volume striking approach by throwing in combinations and mixing up his target. He currently rules the welterweight division in strikes landed per minute (8.24) as well as striking differential (+3.05).

Daniel Rodriguez e sua potΓͺncia nas mΓ£os! πŸ’ͺ

[ #UFCVegas64 | SΓ‘bado (5) | 17h | πŸ“Ί πŸ’» πŸ“± @Combate ] pic.twitter.com/9xSEW3pYR1

β€” UFC Brasil (@UFCBrasil) November 3, 2022

I think a lot of this has to do with the matchups he was put up against: guys who were willing to exchange in the pocket with him and give him the fight he wanted.

Unfortunately, that will likely not be the type of fight Magny will give Rodriguez, which makes this fight even more intriguing.

Magny vs. Rodriguez Pick

As stated earlier, Rodriguez thrives in firefights and bouts that take place in a phone booth. The Mike Perrys and Gabe Greens of the world are perfect stylistic matchups for Rodriguez.

Magny will be pushing a pace and pressure that I don't think Rodriguez will be comfortable with, though. I think Magny will force Rodriguez to fight off of his heels, which could start to slow down Rodriguez a lot sooner than he is used to.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Magny engage in the clinch and rough up Rodriguez in those positions, forcing him to work and exert energy as he has yet to feel.

I think the work rate, veteran experience and cardio of Magny will thrive in this matchup and remind people that he can still hang with this level of fighter.

I would bet Magny up to -150 given how confident I am in him.

The Pick: Neil Magny to win (-115 at BetMGM)

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