UFC Vegas 80 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Joe Pyfer vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan: Risk Worth Reward in UFC Co-Headliner (Saturday, October 7)

Joe Pyfer vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan Odds

The UFC Vegas 80 co-main event on Saturday features a middleweight showdown between Joe Pyfer and Abdul Razak Alhassan.

Pyfer, who is the arguable A-side of this co-headliner given his push from the UFC president, has fortunately made Dana White's decision to back him look good since coming off his second stint on the Contender Series last year.

The Pennsylvania native has produced two consecutive first-round finishes inside the UFC octagon and is now pitted against a fellow dangerous finisher in Alhassan.

Alhassan has traded wins and losses since moving up to middleweight, but he is coming off an impressive second-round stoppage win over Claudio Ribeiro.

Tale of the Tape

Despite both men being stereotyped as aggressive strikers, each fighter carries some deceptive craft to his game.

Alhassan, whose nickname is "Judo Thunder," is a judo black belt who won many titles in that scene.

Although Alhassan primarily uses his judo to keep fights standing, he has been showing a quiet trend of incorporating offensive takedowns since working with Elevation Fight Team.

It's an excellent camp that's located in the high altitude of Denver, and Alhassan appears to be focusing on shoring up his holes in regard to both skill and stamina.

Nevertheless, I'm not sure how much grappling Alhassan will want to do with Pyfer.

Pyfer may not hold any notable ranks in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but the Philly fighter has strong ties to Sean Brady and the Daniel Gracie Team.

In fact, Pyfer has been fairly active on the competitive grappling circuits as of late, challenging and beating fellow UFC middleweights such as Gerald Meerschaert and Eryk Anders.

Pyfer, who is a Team Marquez MMA fighter, also appears to have some solid wrestling instincts and better fight IQ than he's given credit for.

I'll be curious to see if Pyfer looks to test his boxing savvy opposite a heavy hitter such as Alhassan, but he'll need to be better about checking leg kicks if he does.

Pyfer vs. Alhassan Pick

The oddsmakers and the public are heavily siding with the Contender Series product, listing Pyfer -470 and Alhassan +340 as of this writing.

Although this line is getting way too wide for my liking, I can't say that I disagree with who is favored.

Not only is Pyfer a deceptively dangerous puncher (both coming forward and off the counter), but the Philly fighter also has underrated wrestling and submission grappling to boot.

Alhassan is definitely live at his current asking price, so I don't blame anyone for treating this as a 'dog-or-pass spot from a moneyline perspective.

That said, I'll be approaching this fight from an angle on the total, taking this contest to carry "over" the mark of 1.5 rounds.

It's admittedly a risky play that I'll undoubtedly be sweating, but I believe that there's value in the plus money given the quiet trends at play.

Alhassan, who is coming off his first career win outside of the first round, has been very open about the intentions of both him and his team to improve his pacing and better control his aggression.

Whereas Pyfer, on the other hand, has clearly been focusing a lot on his grappling, openly talking about his intentions to show that he is a "complete fighter."

Pyfer is also claiming that he's bucking for a new contract, citing the importance of a win in this spot.

Couple that with the weirdness that often exists between two big power punchers, and I suspect that Pyfer looks to fight smart and extend this fight by grappling.

I may throw "Pyfer by submission" in a round robin or sprinkle on it straight up if I can find it north of +500, but the play for me is the over.

The Pick: Joe Pyfer vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan over 1.5 rounds (+165 at Caesars)

Use our Caesars Sportsbook promo code to receive $1,000 in bonus bets for added value.