UFC Vegas 80 Odds, Picks, Projections: Our Best Bets for Alex Morono vs. Joaquin Buckley, Alexander Hernandez vs. Bill Algeo, More (Saturday, October 7)
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC welterweight Joaquin Buckley
Check out our UFC Vegas 80 best bets for the Saturday event at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, which streams on ESPN+.
UFC Vegas 80 features 11 bouts in all, including the lightweight main event of Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green, among others. The action kicks off at 4 p.m. ET (1 p.m. PT) for the preliminary card and 7 p.m. ET for the main card.
So where should be looking to place your UFC Vegas 80 bets? Our crew has pinpointed four fights and picks on Saturday’s card that present betting value.
You can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections below using odds from BetMGM.
Moneyline Projections
Prop Projections
Tony Sartori: Kanako Murata vs. Vanessa Demopoulos
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 4:55 p.m. ET
On Saturday's UFC Vegas 80 prelims, Vanessa Demopoulos takes on Kanako Murata in a women's strawweight bout.
This is just one of those fights in which one fighter is so much better than the other and has more tools to rack up points to coast to a decision victory. Murata is the better striker (both offensively and defensively), better grappler and stronger wrestler.
She can utilize her three-inch reach advantage to keep Demopoulos at distance and rack up points in the striking department, which is what happened in Demopoulos' most recent loss to Karolina Kowalkiewicz. With that said, I think Murata is mainly going to utilize her strong wrestling to just dominate on the mat, rack up the control time, and grab the decision victory.
That is what she did to secure the Invicta FC strawweight title over Emily Ducote and also nab a win in her UFC debut against Randa Markos.
Murata is capable of securing a submission while on the mat, but the purple belt has typically relied on her wrestling base more than her developing jiu-jitsu game when fighting in the bigger promotions.
Demopoulos has also never been finished inside the distance. It is a testament to both her chin and her ability to grapple, which is something she does professionally on the side of MMA. So, regardless of whether this fight stays on the feet or goes to the mat, I trust Murata more in both departments to just rack up points and let the judges decide this one.
The Pick: Kanako Murata by Decision (-138 at bet365)
Billy Ward: Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Diana Belbita
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:25 p.m. ET
Diana Belbita started her UFC career at 0-2 as a flyweight before dropping down to strawweight in 2021. Since then, she’s won two of her three fights with her lone loss a fairly close decision against Gloria de Paula last year.
Belbita is a solid striker who mixes in attacks to all levels with fast kicks. She tends to be a bit over-reliant on overhand rights, but she has the speed and output to win rounds on the feet consistently. She’s not an especially accurate striker, but the more active fighter tends to win rounds on the scorecards.
Where she’s struggled is with wrestling, and a takedown from de Paula probably made the difference in that fight. However, she is solid off of her back, attacking with submissions and elbows from guard.
All of which makes the matchup with Karolina Kowalkiewicz a strong one for Belbita. Belbita has an edge of more than a significant strike per minute against Kowalkiewicz, who has landed just four takedowns in 15 UFC fights.
Belbita’s judo background should give her the grappling edge if it comes to that, but I see her winning this fight on the feet. Kowalkiewicz will be 38 next week, and she seemed totally washed during her five-fight losing skid from 2018-2021.
While Kowalkiewicz has bounced back with three straight wins, two of those were against fighters even older than she is. Belbita is more than a decade younger and still showing major improvements between fights while Kowalkiewicz is on the downslope of her career.
Given the historical data on 10+ year age gaps in the UFC – with the younger fighter winning more than 60% of the time – Belbita is a surprising underdog here. I’d bet her down to +110 on the moneyline.
The Pick: Diana Belbita (+130 at Caesars)
Dan Tom: Alexander Hernandez vs. Bill Algeo
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:55 p.m. ET
With UFC Vegas 80 offering a ton of competitive matchups across the board, I don't blame anyone for not feeling confident at the counter.
That said, I can honestly tell you that I feel good about targeting the near pick'em between Bill Algeo (+105) and Alexander Hernandez (-130).
Aside from the fact that you're getting a solid discount on Algeo's moneyline due to the line flip, this matchup offers a dynamic that I love to target: a fighter who potentially fades versus a fighter who comes on strong late.
Hernandez, whose majority of losses come in Round 2, does not seem to weather fights well when the going gets tough.
Couple that with his admitted struggles to make the featherweight limit, and I find myself salivating at the prospects of a durable and aggressive fighter like Algeo.
Although I believe that Algeo's opening line was both justified and playable chalk, I could see the argument of allowing for this fight to get out of the first round before potentially pulling the trigger on "Senor Perfecto" at decent plus-odds live.
However, given that public money has flipped this line, I can't help but fire on what's my most confident play of the weekend.
The Pick: Bill Algeo (+105 at BetMGM)
Sean Zerillo: Joaquin Buckley vs. Alex Morono
Senior Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:25 p.m. ET
Alex Morono appears to be a popular underdog selection this week, but I suspect he'll need to grapple to win consistent minutes against Joaquin Buckley.
However, the Houston native hasn't hit a takedown in the UFC since 2020 and has averaged fewer than one takedown per fight (0.87 takedowns per 15 minutes, 20% accuracy) across his UFC career.
Buckley is the longer fighter (four-inch reach advantage), the much better athlete, and will likely carry a speed and power advantage in the pocket exchanges to overcome Morono's superior technique.
Buckley struggled at size parity or, more commonly, at a reach disadvantage as a smaller middleweight but is a much more imposing welterweight, and the physicality advantage should be enough to keep this fight standing and provide substantially better damage optics for judges.
Of the two, I think Buckley is more likely to land an offensive takedown; he's frequently mixed in level changes to keep his opponents off-balance – leading to a head-kick knockout against Andre Fialho in his last fight.
If you're going to bet on Morono, I would wait until live after Round 1; Buckley never had the best cardio at middleweight, and cutting to welterweight could further compromise his gas tank.
Still, Buckley has substantially more finishing upside, given the power and size discrepancy.
I projected "New Mansa" as nearly a 65% favorite (-185 implied odds) in this fight; you can bet his moneyline up to -177.
The Pick: Joaquin Buckley (-165 at BetMGM)
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