3 NBA Props for Friday: Cauley-Stein Over/Under 12.5 Points?

3 NBA Props for Friday: Cauley-Stein Over/Under 12.5 Points? article feature image
Credit:

Kyle Terada — USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Willie Cauley-Stein.

The FantasyLabs Player Props tool has identified a bunch of exploitable NBA player props on Friday’s 10-game slate, including more than a dozen with a perfect 10-of-10 Bet Quality Rating. Here are three that stand out for games starting at 7 p.m.8 p.m. and 10 p.m. ET.

Magic PG D.J. Augustin Under 13 Points vs. Hornets (-130)

7 p.m. ET

After averaging 31.4 minutes in March and playing 37 in his first game in April, Augustin has been limited to 20 minutes or fewer in each of the last two games while the Magic get their tank on. Augustin averages 13.2 points in 29.9 minutes since the All-Star break, but even at -130, this prop doesn’t quite take into account his potential minutes restriction to close out the season. Charlotte has held him to 9.7 points in 23.4 minutes per game in three games this season,  or 0.41 points per minute, which would still leave him with fewer than 13 points even if he played 30 minutes. Bet Quality: 10/10.

Kings C Willie Cauley-Stein Over 12.5 points at Grizzlies (-114)

8 p.m ET

With the Kings resting their veterans, Cauley-Stein played  over 37 minutes in their last game and the FantasyLabs Models project him for over 30 tonight. If he reaches that projection, his odds of going over this prop are strong. He’s scored 13 or more points in 19 of the 26 games which he’s played at least 30 minutes — a 73% success rate. With Marc Gasol out of action for the Grizzlies, it should be a lot easier for Cauley-Stein to drop it in the bucket. Gasol’s defensive real plus/minus this season is +1.96, which ranks well above average at 24th in the league among centers. Gasol’s replacements, Deyonta Davis and Ivan Rabb, both rank near the bottom of the league with respective marks of -1.19 and -1.31.  Cauley-Stein averages 14.0 points in two games against Memphis this season even with Gasol in the lineup, and his 27.0% usage rate in those games is his fourth-highest against any team. Bet Quality: 10/10.

Suns F Josh Jackson Over 5.5 Rebounds vs. Pelicans (-114)

10 p.m. ET

The fourth overall pick out of Kansas averages 31.0 minutes per game since the All-Star break, but over 37.0 across his last six games as the tanking Suns have gotten increasingly shorthanded, and Jackson has failed to play below 35 in any of those games. There’s no reason why that trend shouldn’t continue, which makes the expected value of the over on this prop strong: Jackson has snatched at least six rebounds in nine of the 12 games this season in which he’s played 35 minutes or more.  He averages 5.6 rebounds a game since the break, and perhaps more importantly, he averages 8.5 rebounds in only 26.7 minutes in two games against New Orleans this season. Bet Quality: 10/10.