The Detroit Pistons (1-2) and Orlando Magic (2-1) will square off in Game 4 of their first-round NBA playoff series tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET from the Kia Center in Orlando, Florida. The game will broadcast live on NBC and Peacock.
The Pistons are 2.5-point favorites over the Magic on the spread (Pistons -2.5), with the over/under set at 213.5 total points. Detroit is a -148 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Orlando is +124 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Pistons vs. Magic predictions and NBA picks for Game 4 on Monday, April 27.
Pistons vs Magic Prediction
- Pistons vs Magic pick: Under 213.5 (-108)
My Magic vs. Pistons Game 4 best bet is on the total to stay under 213.5 points. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Pistons vs Magic Odds for Game 4
| Pistons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 213.5 -112o / -108u | -148 |
| Magic Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 213.5 -112o / -108u | +124 |
Pistons vs Magic NBA Playoffs Game 4 Preview
Detroit Pistons Betting Preview, Analysis
The Pistons had an incredible season, leading the Eastern Conference pretty much from start to finish — and yet, they face the possibility of falling to a 3-1 deficit to the 8-seed Magic tonight.
The news is mixed for the Pistons on the trend front:
- Round 1 road favorites are 74-39 SU, 63-48-2 ATS (56%) in Game 4s since 2003.
- Teams down 3-1 are 10-6 SU, but just 7-7 ATS.
- Number 1-seeds down 2-1 are 7-6 SU and 5-7-1 ATS in Game 4s.
I lean towards the Pistons here.
Detroit got punched in the mouth in Game 1, responded like they needed in Game 2, and then dropped the predictable Game 3 in the first road playoff game for a team following a split.
Orlando Magic Betting Preview, Analysis
There’s no reason to think this is that bad of a matchup for Detroit — and despite the feel of it, the numbers back that up.
The Pistons lead in second-chance points, fast-break points, and points in the paint. They lead in free throws per game and field goal percentage. It’s just a one-point advantage for the Magic in points per 100 possessions over the course of the series.
There are legit reasons for Detroit’s struggles. Jalen Duren has vanished, their shooting is even worse than normal, and JB Bickerstaff’s rotations have been uneven.
But, there’s also a reason the Pistons are the 1-seed and the Magic are the 8-seed. I think there’s value on Detroit here.
Pistons vs Magic Pick, Betting Analysis
Total: Under 213.5
This total is up from 212 at open, so there’s been sharp action towards the over.
However, in series with the road favorite down 2-1, the under is 12-4 — and in all games with a road favorite in Game 4, the under is 54.6%.
Two things are due for regression in this series: the Magic offense is due to come back to earth and the Pistons should be able to find the bottom of a well shooting-wise.
I think the most likely thing to regress is the Magic's offense.
Detroit’s defense is too good to be back on its heels like this for most of the series. The Magic offense stalled out in the third quarter of Game 2, and I think it’s worth betting it to happen again here.
Player Prop: Duncan Robinson Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made
The Magic are consistently peeling off to tag Duren because they’re desperate to kill the Cunningham-Duren pick-and-roll action.
Philosophically, they want to take Duren away, but it’s leaving Duncan Robinson wide open.
Duncan has hit exactly three 3s in every game this series. There isn't much clearance there. We’re right on the verge, but the catch-and-shoot opportunities are constant.
Game 3 is notoriously the weak-spot for favorites on the road, but in Game 4, you need your role players to provide functional offense. Robinson is perfect in that role. I’ll back him to make over 2.5 three-pointers tonight.
Matt Moore's Pistons vs Magic Best Bets
- Under 213.5 (-108)
- Duncan Robinson Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (-120)
