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LeBron James Scoring Tracker Odds: When Will LeBron Break the NBA Points Record?

LeBron James Scoring Tracker Odds: When Will LeBron Break the NBA Points Record? article feature image
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Getty Images/Matt Roembke, Action Network. Pictured: LeBron James

LeBron James is on the cusp of etching his name into the NBA history books once again. He’s just games away from becoming the league’s career points leader and surpassing the great Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in the process.

How many points does LeBron need to pass Kareem as the NBA’s all-time leading scorer? The King is just 89 points away from breaking the scoring record entering tonight’s games.

Sportsbooks have released odds on when, where and how James will break the scoring record and of course we’re tracking all the things you can bet as he chases greatness.

Consider this your one-stop shop for all things LeBron James. This file will update daily until James reaches 38,388 points.

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LeBron James Scoring Record Odds

When Will LeBron Break the NBA Points Record? (Odds as of Feb. 2 via FanDuel)
Date Opponent Opening Odds Current Odds
Feb. 2 at Pacers +3000 +20000
Feb. 4 at Pelicans +480 +6000
Feb. 7 vs. Thunder +210 +200
Feb. 9 vs. Bucks +250 -120
Feb. 11 at Warriors +430 +340
Feb. 13 at Trail Blazers +1000 +1900
Feb. 15 vs. Pelicans +2300 +2900
Feb. 23 at Warriors +6000 +6000
Feb. 26 at Mavericks +7500 +20000
Feb. 28 at Grizzlies +7500 +20000
March 1 at Thunder +7500 +20000
Other +3400 +3400
Click the odds for any game to bet instantly at FanDuel with QuickSlip!

The Lakers began a five-game road trip with a Saturday night primetime game in Boston and are on the second night of a back-to-back set in New York City at Barclays Center and Madison Square Garden. They will carry on to Indianapolis and New Orleans afterwards, closing out the road trip within a seven-day span.

Eight of the games with odds listed are on the road, but the two-game stretch the Lakers have at home in early February (against the Thunder and Bucks) currently have the shortest odds on the board.

James is averaging 30.2 points per game this season and at that rate, he would be expected to break the record in four games, assuming he plays every game.


How Will LeBron Break The Scoring Record?

Shot Type Odds
Dunk +650
Free Throw +450
3-Point Field Goal +370
Layup +145
Other +380
Click the odds for any shot type to bet instantly at FanDuel with QuickSlip!

This list is pretty straightforward. The odds James breaks the record on a dunk are the juiciest, followed by free throw, 3-pointer, other and layup.

Here are FanDuel’s rules for how they will grade this bet:

Will be settled as per the play description from NBA.com. This market refers to how LeBron James will score his 38,388th Regular Season Point.

“Other” refers to all other non-listed scoring methods, such as a 2-point jump shot.

The King is having a career season at the rim. According to Basketball Reference, He’s shooting 79.9% between 0-3 feet and ranks 24th in the NBA in total dunks (60).

According to NBA Advanced Stats, among the 50 players who have attempted the most 2-point shots this season, James has the 10th-best percentage (59.3%). Among the 50 players who have attempted the most 3-point shots, James has the second-worst shooting percentage (30.7%).

In Which Quarter LeBron Break The Scoring Record?

Shot Type Odds
First Quarter +260
Second Quarter +240
Third Quarter +260
Fourth Quarter +250
Click the odds for any shot type to bet instantly at FanDuel with QuickSlip!

LeBron’s Scoring Average This Season — By Quarter

  • First Quarter: 5.4
  • Second Quarter: 8.4
  • Third Quarter: 7.2
  • Fourth Quarter: 8.8

Lakers Upcoming Schedule

Thursday Feb. 2 — at Pacers, 7 p.m. ET on NBA League Pass
Saturday Feb. 4 — at Pelicans, 8 p.m. ET on NBA League Pass 
Tuesday Feb. 7 — vs. Thunder, 10:30 p.m. ET on NBA League Pass
Thursday Feb. 9 — vs. Bucks, 10:30 p.m. ET on TNT

LeBron James Scoring Props & Trends

Knowing how to bet James’ point total each night is another way to get value as he gets close to the record. This season, James has gone over his point total in 23 of his 41 games.

Sportsbooks are adjusting based on different factors and it’s likely his props will be inflated as he gets closer. Here’s a look at his over/under splits in different scenarios.

LeBron Over/Unders by Point Range

  • 24.5 Points or Less: 2-0
  • 25.5-29.5 Points: 10-10
  • 30.5 Points or More: 11-8

Sportsbooks have been setting James’ points prop at or above 30 points with regularity since Dec. 30. His prop has been as high as 33.5 points this season and he has gone over that number once (37 points vs. the Trail Blazers) and under twice.

LeBron Over/Unders by Days of Rest

  • 3+ Days between games: 1-1
  • 2 Days between games: 5-5
  • 1 Day between games: 14-10
  • 0 Days between games: 3-2

James has been on the injury report all season with a sore ankle, so he’s not always a lock to play each night (not to mention, he’s 38 years old and in his 20th season).

Early in the season, James rested on the second night of a back-to-back more frequently, but after Davis’ injury, James has played in three of four back-to-back sets.

The team has found spots for him to rest — he sat out their road game in Denver on Jan. 9 and in Brooklyn on Jan. 30 — but the Lakers don’t have any back-to-back games until the end of February.

LeBron Over/Unders With or Without Star Teammates

With the Lakers’ top three players all healthy, James’ points prop was listed at 27 points on average and he went over his prop in 11 of those 22 games.

In the two games in which James played and Russell Westbrook was inactive, James went 1-1 on his over/under. In 19 games without Davis playing, James has gone over his points prop 12 times.

Should You Bet LeBron’s Points Prop Tonight?

Thanks to Action Network’s player prop projections, we can use data to determine if there is any significant betting value on James’ prop each night.

The Lakers play the Indiana Pacers Thursday and James is questionable to play. Tonight, his projection in our tool (28.9) falls just below his listed prop of 29.5.

In his last game against the Pacers, James shot 8-of-22 from the field and scored 21 points in a loss.

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