LeBron James Scoring Tracker Odds: Will LeBron Break the NBA Points Record Tonight?

LeBron James Scoring Tracker Odds: Will LeBron Break the NBA Points Record Tonight? article feature image

Getty Images/Matt Roembke, Action Network. Pictured: LeBron James

LeBron James is on the cusp of etching his name into the NBA history books once again. He's just games away from becoming the league's career points leader and surpassing the great Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in the process.

How many points does LeBron need to pass Kareem as the NBA's all-time leading scorer? The King is just 36 points away from breaking the scoring record entering tonight's games.

Sportsbooks have released odds on when, where and how James will break the scoring record and of course we're tracking all the things you can bet as he chases greatness.

Consider this your one-stop shop for all things LeBron James. This file will update daily until James reaches 38,388 points.

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LeBron James Scoring Record Odds

When Will LeBron Break the NBA Points Record? (Odds as of Feb. 7 via FanDuel)
DateOpponentOpening OddsCurrent Odds
Feb. 7vs. Thunder+210+135
Feb. 9vs. Bucks+250-200
Feb. 11at Warriors+430+1900
Feb. 13at Trail Blazers+1000+20000
Feb. 15vs. Pelicans+2300+20000
Feb. 23at Warriors+6000+20000
Feb. 26at Mavericks+7500+20000
Feb. 28at Grizzlies+7500+20000
March 1at Thunder+7500+20000
Click the odds for any game to bet instantly at FanDuel with QuickSlip!

The Lakers closed out their five-game road trip in New Orleans Saturday against the Pelicans and head home for a two-game set at Crypto.com Arena against the Thunder and Bucks.

The odds for James to break the record at home against Giannis Antetokounmpo and Co. have dropped precipitously as he's gotten closer to the magic number. James is averaging 30.1 points per game this season and at that rate, he would break the record early in their game against the Bucks.

How Will LeBron Break The Scoring Record?

Shot TypeOdds
Free Throw+450
3-Point Field Goal+370
Click the odds for any shot type to bet instantly at FanDuel with QuickSlip!

This list is pretty straightforward. The odds James breaks the record on a dunk are the juiciest, followed by free throw, 3-pointer, other and layup.

Here are FanDuel's rules for how they will grade this bet:

Will be settled as per the play description from NBA.com. This market refers to how LeBron James will score his 38,388th Regular Season Point.

"Other" refers to all other non-listed scoring methods, such as a 2-point jump shot.

The King is having a career season at the rim. According to Basketball Reference, He's shooting 80.5% between 0-3 feet and ranks 22nd in the NBA in total dunks (62), tied with Kristaps Porzingis.

According to NBA Advanced Stats, among the 50 players who have attempted the most 2-point shots this season, James has the seventh-best percentage (59.5%). Among the 50 players who have attempted the most 3-point shots, James has the second-worst shooting percentage (30.8%).

In Which Quarter LeBron Break The Scoring Record?

Shot TypeOdds
First Quarter+220
Second Quarter+175
Third Quarter+380
Fourth Quarter+270
Click the odds for any shot type to bet instantly at FanDuel with QuickSlip!

LeBron's Scoring Average This Season — By Quarter

  • First Quarter: 5.4
  • Second Quarter: 8.4
  • Third Quarter: 7.2
  • Fourth Quarter: 8.8

Lakers Upcoming Schedule

Tuesday Feb. 7 — vs. Thunder, 10:30 p.m. ET on TNT
Thursday Feb. 9 — vs. Bucks, 10:30 p.m. ET on TNT
Saturday Feb. 11 — vs. Warriors, 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC

LeBron James Scoring Props & Trends

Knowing how to bet James' point total each night is another way to get value as he gets close to the record. This season, James has gone over his point total in 23 of his 43 games.

Sportsbooks are adjusting based on different factors and it's likely his props will be inflated as he gets closer. Here's a look at his over/under splits in different scenarios.

LeBron Over/Unders by Point Range

  • 24.5 Points or Less: 2-0
  • 25.5-29.5 Points: 10-12
  • 30.5 Points or More: 11-8

Sportsbooks have been setting James' points prop at or above 30 points with regularity since Dec. 30. His prop has been as high as 33.5 points this season and he has gone over that number once (37 points vs. the Trail Blazers) and under three times.

LeBron Over/Unders by Days of Rest

  • 3+ Days between games: 1-1
  • 2 Days between games: 5-5
  • 1 Day between games: 14-12
  • 0 Days between games: 3-2

James has been on the injury report all season with a sore ankle, so he's not always a lock to play each night (not to mention, he's 38 years old and in his 20th season).

Early in the season, James rested on the second night of a back-to-back more frequently, but after Davis' injury, James has played in three of four back-to-back sets.

The team has found spots for him to rest — he sat out their road game in Denver on Jan. 9 and in Brooklyn on Jan. 30 — but the Lakers don't have any back-to-back games until the end of February.

LeBron Over/Unders With or Without Star Teammates

Type over or under into the search to see LeBron's splits.

With the Lakers' top three players all healthy, James' points prop was listed at 27 points on average and he went over his prop in 11 of those 24 games.

In the two games in which James played and Russell Westbrook was inactive, James went 1-1 on his over/under. In 19 games without Davis playing, James has gone over his points prop 12 times.

Should You Bet LeBron's Points Prop Tonight?

Thanks to Action Network's player prop projections, we can use data to determine if there is any significant betting value on James' prop each night.

James' points prop is as high as 33.5 points, which is the highest number we've tracked for him this season. If it closes at that number and both James and Davis play, it would be his highest prop line this season with both stars active. In four games with his points prop listed at 33.5, the under is 3-1.

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