Wolves-Blazers Betting Preview: What’s Wrong With Portland’s Defense?

Betting odds: Minnesota Timberwolves at Portland Trail Blazers

• Spread: Blazers -3
• Over/Under: 219.5
• Time: 10 p.m. ET

The Wolves are one of the NBA's hottest teams right now; the Blazers are most certainly not, failing to cover the spread in seven of their past eight games. What's wrong with them? And can they turn it around tonight? Our experts dive in.

Mears: My Thoughts on Tonight's Spread and Total

These two teams are trending in opposite directions: The Wolves have covered six of their past seven games; the Blazers have covered just one of their past eight. It's been ugly, although they did have a chance to get right on Thursday against the lowly Suns.

This line of Blazers -3 in Portland suggests these two teams are about even on a neutral court right now. And it's easy to make that case if you look at season-long stats…

• Blazers: +1.7 point differential (15th), 112.5 Offensive Rating (7th), 110.7 Defensive Rating (20th)
• Wolves: +0.4 point differential (16th), 109.8 Offensive Rating (12th), 109.4 Defensive Rating (15th)

But if we look at recent play, the teams aren't really close at all. Here's how they've performed since Nov. 15, which is 10 games for the Wolves and 11 for the Blazers.

• Blazers: -7.0 point differential (26th), 108.6 Offensive Rating (19th), 115.6 Defensive Rating (26th)
• Wolves: +10.0 (2nd), 111.1 Offensive Rating (13th), 101.1 Defensive Rating (3rd)

For the Wolves, the big jump has been defensively, and you can largely credit new addition Robert Covington. He has arguably been the best defensive player in the league since joining Minnesota, and the numbers confirm that. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Wolves have improved their Defensive Rating by 6.8 points with him on (90th percentile in the NBA).

The Blazers, on the other hand, have been atrocious defensively of late. That said, their metrics are weird. Since Nov. 15, they've allowed the eighth-fewest shots at the rim and fifth-fewest 3-pointers. Opponents have taken just 5.4% of shots from the corner, good for the second-fewest in the league. Those are all great signs.

But those opponents have been drilling shots, shooting 41.6% 3s overall and 43.2% on 3s not in the corner, which are obviously farther.

Diving deeper, during that time the Blazers allowed just 13.7% of 3s to be "wide open," which is the third-lowest mark in the league. The Timberwolves? They've allowed the most "wide-open" 3s in that span. The difference is opponents have hit their wide-open shots vs. the Blazers at a rate of 44.4% — easily the highest mark in the league.

Thus, this is a weird game and a weird line. The season-long metrics suggest this line is right; the recent ones suggest it's way off. But the recent metrics also suggest that the Blazers might have been supremely unlucky over their past 11 games, and that should normalize soon.

I think if you want to take that angle tonight, the best bet might not be the spread — Minny still has been very good. Rather, perhaps look at the total of 219.5, as this could be more a defensive battle than expected if the Blazers see some positive regression in opponent shooting. — Bryan Mears

Betting Trends to Know

The Timberwolves finished their four-game home stand with a bang, shooting 53.9% from the field in a 17-point win against the Hornets.

That said,  under Tom Thibodeau, the Wolves have struggled mightily the outing following a good shooting performance:

• 14-31 against the spread (32.6%) after shooting at least 51% from the field
• -17 units (worst coach in the NBA by more than three units)

On the other side, the Wolves have also shot 23-of-46 from 3-point range over their past two games, making exactly 50% of their 3s in each game.

Since Thibodeau took over as head coach in 2016, this will be just the second time the T-Wolves shot 50% or better on 3s in consecutive games. The previous two times, they blew the doors off their opponent in the next game:

• March 20, 2018 vs. LAC (-3.5): Won 123-109, 10-25 (40%) from 3
• November 17, 2017 at DAL (-5.5): Won 111-87, 13-30 (43.3%) from 3 — Evan Abrams

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.