NBA Betting Odds & Picks: Our Staff’s Best Bets for Knicks vs. Nets and Warriors vs. Suns (November 30)
Kent Smith/Getty Images. Pictured: Stephen Curry
The NBA season continues with five games on Tuesday night, and our Action Network NBA staff has you covered with four best bets, including three total bets on the two nationally televised games on TNT.
Joe Dellera and Raheem Palmer have broken down two bets for the crosstown matchup between the Knicks and Nets. Kenny Ducey has a best bet on the Lakers’ rematch with the Kings after these teams played a triple-overtime game on Friday. Finally, Matt Moore has a play on the battle of Western Conference frontrunners as the Warriors and Suns collide for the first time this season.
NBA Odds & Picks
New York Knicks vs. Brooklyn Nets
Joe Dellera: Patty Mills has been on a tear since taking on an increased role due to Joe Harris’ injury.
Since Joe Harris was hurt Patty has played in 7 games. These are his splits:
18.4 Points | 5.1/9.0 3s (57.1%) | 1.6 Rebounds | 2.3 Assists | 34 minutes
Patty Mills’ points prop for tomorrow:
These lines are wild.
— Joe Dellera (@JoeDellera) November 30, 2021
I do not believe that the books have properly adjusted for this. His usage is obviously lower than Kevin Durant and James Harden’s, but he is the clear third scoring option on the team. Their gravity opens up excellent looks for Mills, and over his last 7 games, he has taken 78.8% of his shots from 3 point range.
Looking at his Field Goal attempts as a whole, 77.6% are categorized as Open or Wide Open via NBA.com’s tracking data. Considering the Knicks allow opponents to take 40.6% of their shots from 3-point range (third-most), and then their opponents make 34.9% of those attempts (league-average), this is a great spot for Mills.
I’ll be taking a tiered approach to Mills’ points props. I’ll be taking over 12.5, a number he’s cleared in 5/7 games. I’ll also take 15+ (+138) a number he has cleared in 5/7. And I will also sprinkle 20+ (+510), a number he has cleared in 4/7. I would tier my bet at 50%, 35%, 15% of a Unit.
New York Knicks vs. Brooklyn Nets
Raheem Palmer: My model makes this game 214, but I’m not buying the move to the under on this game. The Brooklyn Nets are 10th in Defensive Rating, allowing 106.5 points in their non garbage-time minutes, according to Cleaning the Glass. However, much of that is misleading as they’ve played the 26th ranked schedule of opposing offenses.
The New York Knicks have made changes to their lineup, completely removing Kemba Walker from the rotation as he was averaging just 11.7 points on 42.9% shooting. With Walker on the court, the Knicks were scoring just 105.1 points per 100 possessions vs. 113 points per 100 with him off the floor, so removing him from the starting five for Alec Burks should help their offense.
Although it will help their defense as well, in regards this particular matchup, the Knicks aren’t slowing down Kevin Durant, James Harden and this Nets offense which is scoring 111.3 points per 100 possessions and ranks 10th in Offensive Rating.
The Knicks particularly struggle on the perimeter where they’re 28th in opponent three point frequency (40.6%) and 17th in opponent 3-point field goal percentage (34.9%). The Nets are first in 3-point field goal percentage (38.5) and top six in shooting percentage from every area of the floor, except the rim where the Knicks are first in field goal percentage (57.2%).
Nonetheless, the Nets should have no problems scoring here. The Knicks should find some success here as well given the Nets struggles in transition. I’ll play the over at 216 here and fade the early under steam.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Sacramento Kings
Kenny Ducey: I’m as big of a Lakers fader as you’re going to find, but you have to draw the line somewhere. That would be in Sacramento, where Los Angeles is only giving 3.5 points.
The Kings have not changed one bit since firing Luke Walton, ranking 25th in Defensive Efficiency in the four games since firing him back on Nov. 21. Their offense has remained average, and their rebounding remains mediocre.
This sets up perfectly for the Lakers, who can’t shoot the three and settle for shots inside the arc from LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook. Westbrook is less of a liability on defense as well against a team that’s struggling to shoot the ball as the Kings rank 25th in 3-point field goal percentage.
Los Angeles is the better team, and while Davis has struggled this season, he has an incredibly soft matchup down low and on the glass which he should easily take advantage of. The Kings’ lack of effort and skill on the defensive end should make Los Angeles look like an actual team for once. Play this to 4.5 points.
Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns
Matt Moore: The Suns’ team total is 12-8 this season and 8-2 in the last 10. I’m typically not in the habit of trying to get in front of a speeding train. However, the Suns are a team that stands out in terms of whom they’ve played. They are 28th in offensive strength of schedule per DunksAndThrees.com, meaning they’ve played a schedule of mostly bad defensive teams.
The Suns’ offense has been rolling, but the one hiccup it has is against switching defenses. Phoenix’s Offensive Efficiency goes from 0.998 points per possession against traditional drop defense to 0.977 against switches, per Second Spectrum, which is primarily what the Warriors run. That trend is a carry over from last season as well.
The Suns have the ability to counter the switch with Deandre Ayton’s size and Chris Paul’s shotmaking, but those are both lower efficiency outcomes.
On the Warriors’ end, they’ve actually struggled a bit vs. drop coverage which is primarily what the Suns run. Most teams don’t run it out of fear of Steph Curry dropping 50, but the Suns have the physicality from their guards to compete, and Deandre Ayton can step up to contest. The Warriors also struggle vs. switching (like most teams do) and see it more often.
These two teams also don’t allow a lot of fastbreak scoring. The Suns are second in transition defense per Synergy Sports, and the Warriors are third.