Wednesday NBA Odds & Picks: Our Favorite Bets for Timberwolves vs. Wizards, Hornets vs. Bucks and More (December 1)
David Berding/Getty Images. Pictured: Karl-Anthony Towns (center) of the Minnesota Timberwolves.
- Wednesday nights in the NBA mean a high volume of games to bet and tonight is no different.
- Our experts have are making four bets -- two prop bets, one total and one spread -- on tonight's nine-game slate.
- Read on to see how we're betting Timberwolves vs. Wizards, Hornets vs. Bucks and more.
On Tuesday we saw two awesome division matchups get the bulk of the attention on national TV and Wednesday has two more matchups between division rivals on NBA TV: 76ers vs. Celtics (7:30 p.m. ET) and Kings vs. Clippers (10:30 p.m. ET).
But the three games are focused on are off the beaten path and featured one spread bet, one bet on a total and two props. You can find their analysis and best bets for Wednesday below.
NBA Odds & Picks
MinnesotaTimberwolves vs. WashingtonWizards
Kenny Ducey: These two teams come in on opposite ends of the spectrum as it pertains to recent form, and while they have had some time to rest since their most recent outings, I still think the trends should continue.
Minnesota has won seven of eight and has held off some quality opponents in recent games, beating the Sixers and the Pacers. Washington has won just two of five, hanging their hat on a win over Dallas and mustering up just 99 points against a weak Spurs defense. While this team is 7-2 against the spread at home, I do think that oddsmakers have caught up to the promising Wizards, and it’s important to note that they’re just 4-6 ATS as favorites.
The Timberwolves, behind Karl-Anthony Towns and the sixth-ranked defense in basketball, should be able to control this game. They’re taking the fourth-most field goal attempts in the restricted area this year and will run into a Washington team allowing 65.7% shooting at the rim, which is the ninth-worst mark in the league.
On the other hand, the Timberwolves’ defense in the paint and in the restricted area has been exceptional, which should eliminate some of the offense Washington has been able to get from Montrezl Harrell.
I would actually make the Timberwolves decent favorites if this game were in Minnesota, and I don’t think the line should be set quite this high in Washington. If anything, this is a pick ‘em. I’ll dabble on the moneyline, but think the points are an easy call.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Washington Wizards
Raheem Palmer: The Wizards have seen their offense completely fall off a cliff as they’re just 23rd in Offensive Rating, scoring 113.4 points per 100 possessions in their non garbage time minutes according to Cleaning the Glass over the past two weeks.
The Wizards rank 17th in eFG% (52.1%) and 27th in 3-point field goal percentage (32.4%), and last season’s second-leading scorer, Bradley Beal, is averaging just 22.9 points per game — he averaged 30-plus for two consecutive seasons prior — on 43.6% shooting and 27.2% from deep this season.
The Wizards don’t play at a fast pace either as they’re 24th in Pace (97) and 29th in the average number of seconds per offensive possession (15.3) according to DunksAndThrees.com.
This struggling Wizards offense will have to deal with the Minnesota Timberwolves who rank third in Defensive Rating (103.7) over the past two weeks and fifth (105.4) and fifth for the season.
The Wolves rank second in half court Defensive Rating (86.3) so I’m not expecting this Wizards offense to have a resurgence in this spot. Despite the solid defense, the Wolves have their own offensive struggles as they’re just 25th in half court Offensive Rating (85.9) and are just 21st in eFG% (51.2%).
Overall this feels like the perfect spot for an under and BetMGM has the best number at 216.5.
Denver Nuggets vs. Orlando Magic
Brandon Anderson: If you’re a regular reader of our props column, you know we’ve been playing a lot of Orlando Magic overs lately. Both Mo Bamba and Wendell Carter Jr. have had breakout campaigns for the Magic. And with the team as shorthanded as ever now that Jalen Suggs is out injured along with the other key names, there’s plenty of minutes for the guys that are available.
Bamba is averaging 10.8 points and 9.4 rebounds a game, a near double-double in almost 30 minutes a game. He’s filling up the box score too, with 1.4 made 3s per game plus 0.9 steals and 2.2 blocks. And the blocks in particular interest us tonight.
Defensive stats tend to be volatile — that’s how numbers work when you only get one or two over an entire game — but that doesn’t mean they’re not profitable. Bamba had a “mini slump” on blocks with one, zero, and one in consecutive games a week ago, and it threw the books off the scent. But that’s not a slump at all with numbers this low — it’s just variance. And if there was any question, Bamba had SIX blocks his last time out.
Still, the books have over adjusted this line. Less than a week ago, over 1.5 blocks was listed at -150 when we played it, and it was a value already then. But now after this “slump,” books are giving us even value on this Gumby-like man that makes Chet Holmgren look small by comparison, and that’s crazy.
All the better that Bamba is playing Nikola Jokic and a bunch of Denver backups tonight. Monte Morris and Facu Campazzo should get most of the guard minutes, and they’re tiny and blockable. Will Barton and the Dos Verdes forwards have been quite blockable too.
Even with that “slump,” Bamba has still had multiple blocks in 13 of 21 games, hitting out over 62% of the time when this line implies an even 50%. Even better, Bamba’s had at least one block in all but two games, so the floor puts us one outstretched swat away at all times.
Mo Bamba, Mo problems.
Charlotte Hornets vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Joe Dellera: We have one of the highest listed totals of the season in a game between the Hornets and the Bucks and it’s set as high as 231.5.
If you listened to Matt Moore and Raheem Palmer on today’s Buckets podcast, then you’d have heard that although this game might be one where you can only truly trust one team to score (the Bucks), they should be able to do so with ease and have plenty of opportunities at that.
An interesting piece of data is that Hornets and Bucks both play at top 10 Paces in the league, but maybe even more significant is their Offensive Time of Possession. The Hornets have the shortest at 13.9 seconds, the Bucks are 10th with 14.4 seconds, via Dunksandthrees.com. This should allow plenty of opportunity for not only points but counting stats as well.
‘Tis the Holiday Season and what better way to kick off December than with some Jrue Holiday props. Holiday has been playing well as of late, and given this Charlotte defense this is an opportunity to grab some prop value. Holiday’s points line is set at 15.5 and he’s cleared that number in four consecutive games.
His rebound line is 4.5 and he’s cleared that in five consecutive. I’m looking to combine these given the Hornets league worst rebounding percentage of 47.9% and fifth worst Defensive Rating, per NBA.com.
I’ll take Holiday’s Points + Rebounds over 20.5, a number he has cleared in four straight and in both games against the Hornets last season.
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