Monday’s NBA Experts Picks: How to Bet Bulls vs. Kings, More

There are six games on the NBA schedule for Monday night and our experts are betting the total, spread and props in three specific matchups:

• 7:30 p.m. ET: Golden State Warriors at Atlanta Hawks 
• 8 p.m. ET: Indiana Pacers at Memphis Grizzlies 
• 10 p.m. ET: Chicago Bulls at Sacramento Kings 

See what bets they're making below.

Odds as of Monday at 3:30 p.m. ET

Wob: Warriors at Hawks

• Spread: Hawks -6.5
• Over/Under: 222.5
• Time: 7:30 p.m. ET

I’m sorry, who exactly is going to play defense is this game? What am I missing that this total isn’t in the 230s?

As long as Eric Paschall is out there the Warriors have a bucket-getter and offense initiator who can get them to 110 points, and that’s even before you factor in that the Hawks are ranked second-to-last in the league in opponent points per game and defensive efficiency.

Take into account the Hawks have achieved these glorious defensive statistics playing the 30th-ranked strength of schedule in the entire association, and yes, you guessed it — they are already the worst defensive team of the year and it’s only December.

Their offense is fun though, and they love to run (11th in pace), so I do expect this final score to get into the 230s as long as Paschall is on the floor for the dubs.

The PICK: Over 222.5
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Brandon Anderson: Warriors at Hawks

Warriors rookie Eric Paschall has been one of the better stories of the NBA season thus far. With just about every other Warriors player sidelined or gone, Paschall has gotten big minutes and even bigger usage, while averaging 17.0 points and 5.3 rebounds per game.

Paschall has taken at least nine shots in 15-straight games since his breakout, averaging 18.8 points on 14.4 field goal attempts per game over that span. That’s where we’re getting this line from. But Paschall is a reminder of the difference between average and median outcome.

Despite that robust average, Paschall has only gone over 18.5 points in seven of 20 games. His median scoring outcome is 16.5 points, and his overall scoring average has been boosted by a handful of big scoring booms.

Our models project Paschall at 13.7 points tonight, well under this number, giving it a 10 out of 10 rating in our Player Props tool. Fade the rookie and hope to avoid one of his scoring spikes.

The PICK: Eric Paschall under 18.5 points 
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Bryan Mears: Pacers at Grizzlies

• Spread: Pacers -9
• Over/Under: 216
• Time: 8 p.m. ET

The Grizzlies not only covered last night as a 12-point dog in Minnesota but actually won outright despite missing Ja Morant. He is out again tonight, and the Grizz could be super thin, which seems not particularly ideal for a back-to-back. Kyle Anderson and Brandon Clarke have been ruled out, and Jonas Valanciunas is questionable with an illness.

Last night's game was pretty weird: The Grizzlies hit everything pretty much, going 42.9% on non-corner-3s, and the Wolves couldn't get anything. They generated a ton of open looks, but very few of them actually dropped. I would be hesitant to say that game was super indicative of much moving forward.
Let's talk injuries: Morant, Clarke, Anderson and Valanciunas might not be worth too much to the spread in the vacuum.

But, as mentioned in the intro to this piece, things aren't in vacuums in basketball. You can't just add up player values and call it a day. They can multiply, and team missing four main players may hurt more than the data might say given the lack of depth.

Meanwhile, the Pacers are finally getting healthy. All of their main guys outside of Victor Oladipo are back in the rotation, and they've been playing great basketball of late. Over the last two weeks, they're fifth in the league with a +10.9 point differential.

The Grizzlies found a lot of success inside last night, especially defending the rim. With a potentially very thin frontcourt tonight, and I'm not sure they'll find as much success against Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis. I grabbed this at -9 and don't think it should be single digits.

The PICK: Pacers -9.5 (I would bet anything in single digits)
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John Ewing: Bulls at Kings

• Spread: Kings -5
• Over/Under: 211
• Time: 10 p.m. ET

Buddy Hield is stuffing the box score this season. The Kings' guard is averaging 20.5 points, 4.6 rebounds and 2.4 assists this season.

His rebounding numbers are of particular interest, especially tonight against Chicago. Oddsmakers have set his over/under for rebounds at 4.5, in line with his season average, but they aren't accounting for the opponent nearly enough.

The Bulls are last in the league in rebounds allowed per game to opponents this season (49.1). Chicago ranks 23rd in the NBA in adjusted rebound chance (61.3%). According to HashtagBasketball.com, the Bulls have allowed 6.8 rebounds on average to opposing shooting guards.

According to our FantasyLabs projections, Hield is expected to snag 6.3 rebounds on average against the Bulls. The 1.7 difference between the betting line and projected rebounds helps give this prop bet a 10 out of 10 rating.

With a favorable matchup, the over is a smart bet for Hield's rebound prop.

The PICK: Hield Over 4.5 rebounds
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