The wait is over. The 2025–26 NBA season is finally here, and it brings plenty of questions. Can the Thunder defend their title? What will the season look like for Luka Doncic and LeBron James in what could be the King’s last stand? And how will Cooper Flagg’s much-anticipated debut with the Mavericks unfold?
But the biggest question of all is who will claim the championship this season? The odds are already set at traditional sportsbooks, but there’s another way to wager on NBA futures and make real money in all 50 states, and that's through Kalshi, which blends traditional financial systems with innovative prediction markets.
Let’s take a look at Kalshi’s odds and see if there’s any value. And remember, you can use the promo code below to claim $10 when signing up as a new user.
The Oklahoma City Thunder lead the way with a 29% chance to win it all after capturing the first championship in franchise history last season. The reason to believe in a repeat is clear — a well-built roster led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, last year’s regular-season and Finals MVP.
Second on the board, with a 13% chance, are the Denver Nuggets. Hopes are high with the arrival of David Adelman, whose reshaping of the team could bring much-needed depth and versatility around superstar Nikola Jokic.
Next up, the Cleveland Cavaliers sit at 11%. After falling in last season’s Eastern Conference semifinals, the Cavs are seeking redemption with their core intact. Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and Darius Garland headline a talented and balanced roster.
Can the New York Knicks finally end their 62-year championship drought? That’s the mission for new head coach Mike Brown and the market at Kalshi gives them an 8% chance to do it. With Karl-Anthony Towns, Jalen Brunson, and Mikal Bridges leading one of the league’s deepest squads, the Knicks are determined to bounce back after losing to the Pacers in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals.
The Los Angeles Lakers and Houston Rockets follow closely, each with 7% odds. The Lakers are banking on the Doncic–James duo for one last title push in what might be LeBron’s final season. The Rockets, meanwhile, are energized by Kevin Durant’s new two-year extension as he teams up with Amen Thompson for a potential title run.
Further down the list, the Golden State Warriors come in at 6%, entering the 12th season of the Stephen Curry-Steve Kerr era. The Los Angeles Clippers (5%) bring veteran experience with Chris Paul, Kawhi Leonard, and James Harden, while the Minnesota Timberwolves — last year’s Western Conference finalists — aim to take the next step behind Anthony Edwards.
The rest of the league sits below 5%, including the Dallas Mavericks (4%), where Flagg makes his long-awaited NBA debut as the first overall pick in the 2025 Draft, and the San Antonio Spurs, led by Victor Wembanyama in his first season under new head coach Mitch Johnson, who replaces Gregg Popovich after 29 years at the helm.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in all 50 states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
