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We have another excellent NBA slate in front of us tonight, and I've been crunching the numbers to find the best spots on the board. From sides and totals to specific matchup angles, I've locked in my favorite plays for the evening.
Let's get into my NBA predictions and expert bets for Wednesday, October 21.
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NBA Expert Bets for Wednesday, October 21
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Bucks vs. Wizards
Wizards -4.5
I just think the Bucks are truly awful right now. There’s some talent there, and I like head coach Taylor Jenkins, but their roster simply doesn't fit together and they are going to rely on way too many rookies.
The Wizards aren’t exactly great either, but this is a night for new beginnings with AJ Dybantsa (out tonight, ankle) and the veterans they traded for.
If I could bet Kyshawn George over +2.5 plus-minus, I absolutely would.
Pick: Wizards -4.5
Trae Young Double-Double (-113)
Trae Young is a walking 11 dimes. He’s just too good as a passer, and he is surrounded by two elite lob threats and multiple perimeter spacers.
I’m honestly more worried about the points than the assists, but with his massive usage rate, he’ll get there.
Pick: Trae Young to Record a Double-Double (-113)
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Hornets vs. Nets
Over 219.5
This total is still taking steam down to 218, but I just have to go the other way from the sharp money here.
The Nets had the No. 1 offense in the preseason. Yes, it’s just the preseason, but they do have actual, proven offensive players like Michael Porter Jr. and Julius Randle. They have guards who can consistently create and wings who can finish.
On the other side, the Hornets are not magically going to be better defensively despite losing LaMelo Ball. They are also still going to bomb threes at a high volume, even with their best players on the shelf.
This feels exactly like a ragtag, high-variance game played in the 230s, not a defensive slugfest.
Pick: Over 219.5
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Jazz vs. Grizzlies
Zach Edey Over 10.5 Rebounds
Zach Edey is a monster on the glass, and the Jazz are significantly undersized.
I like Jaxson Hayes in this lineup, but he is going to lose the rebounding battle down low.
Jaren Jackson Jr. is notoriously a lousy rebounder who also consistently gets into foul trouble.
Edey’s health is always a slight issue, but if he plays his minutes, he should smash the glass in this matchup.
Pick: Zach Edey Over 10.5 Rebounds
Ace Bailey Over 17.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists
Bailey went over this line 81% of the time last year.
I understand the argument that he theoretically loses some minutes with Darryn Peterson starting, but Bailey is now the full-time sixth man and will absolutely rack up stats against second units.
Bailey is huge, he's great at crashing the offensive glass, he has some nifty passing chops, and he possesses a full bag to score with.
Pick: Ace Bailey Over 17.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists
Game to Go to Overtime (+1700)
I grabbed this at Grizzlies +1.5 before the line flipped earlier this week, and now I don’t really have a strong lean on the spread.
My model makes it Grizzlies +0.6, so technically, there is now value on Utah. I still like Memphis in their home opener, though.
What I like even more is the chance that these two teams are evenly matched on the road and it goes to OT in a late-night League Pass fever dream.
Pick: Game to Go to Overtime (+1700)
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Mavericks vs. Rockets
Rockets -8.5 / Over 229.5 (Leans)
I really want to bet this because I’m sky-high on the Rockets and super low on the Mavericks entering the year.
I actually make this line Rockets -10.5. However, Dallas is a team with an incredibly wide ceiling-to-floor variance for me right now.
I’m too worried that the Mavs are simply better than my current power rating on them, so I’m staying away until I can see them on the floor—even though I know I’ll be kicking myself if Houston is up 15 in the fourth quarter.
Based on last year's data, this is an under spot, but the Rockets’ offense might be absolute dynamite this year and completely roll this total over.
The impact of new shooting coach Chip Engelland is massive, but I don’t want to fully buy into their overall team shooting just yet; except for a couple of guys…
Pick: Rockets -8.5 / Over 229.5 (Leans)
Jabari Smith Over 1.5 Three-Pointers
Smith might be the secret biggest beneficiary of Engelland's arrival, and he looked absolutely terrific shooting the ball in the preseason.
Pick: Jabari Smith Over 1.5 Three-Pointers
Max Christie Over 1.5 Three-Pointers
Just pay the juice on this one. Christie hit this mark in 71% of all his games last season.
He logged the second-most catch-and-shoot attempts on the entire Dallas roster during the preseason—for a Mavericks team that ranked fifth overall in total three-point attempts per game in preseason action.
Pick: Max Christie Over 1.5 Three-Pointers
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Warriors vs. Lakers
Warriors Moneyline (+200)
I can’t believe I’m doing this, but I just think the market is way too far ahead of the Lakers.
The Warriors are missing so much talent from their roster, but they found some things that really worked in the preseason, including the play of Yaxel Lendeborg.
Steph Curry and Draymond Green are still incredibly pesky together if you try to fade them.
Mostly, I just don’t think the Lakers should be this big of a favorite against anyone right now—even the Warriors, and even in the opener (Okay, maybe against the Kings, but no one else).
Pick: Warriors Moneyline (+200)
Ziaire Williams Over 7.5 Points
Williams is starting, and the Warriors are throwing out a lot of forwards, so the Lakers are going to need his size on the floor.
A single three-pointer, three made free throws, and a transition layup is literally all we’re asking for here to clear this low bar.
Pick: Ziaire Williams Over 7.5 Points
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Suns vs. Trail Blazers
By Matt Moore
Under 232.5
What on earth is this line? When I first looked at the board, this was the first number that jumped off the page at me.
Based off last year's data and current pace metrics, my model makes this total 221.
I cannot find any sort of schematic or mathematical justification for an 11-point differential to push this up to 232.5.
Pick: Under 232.5
Devin Booker Under 5.5 Assists
Devin Booker came into the season explicitly talking about how he needed to get back to scoring the basketball. He’s a gifted passer and operated as the primary playmaker last year, but he frankly didn’t enjoy it.
Much of that playmaking burden is expected to transfer to Jalen Green this season. I want to test that theory tonight against a fundamentally good Portland defense, especially since I already like the under in this matchup.
Pick: Devin Booker Under 5.5 Assists
Ja Morant Over 4.5 Assists
Ja Morant’s most underrated ability has always been his passing.
I’m honestly terrified of his scoring line and almost played his under, but he shot surprisingly well on jump shots in the preseason, so I’m holding off.
That said, Morant is an elite passer, especially when he gets a head of steam past the first line of defense and fires those two-handed kick-outs to perimeter weapons like Damian Lillard.
Pick: Ja Morant Over 4.5 Assists
Game to Go to Overtime (+1700)
I make this game Suns -0.7, but I really don’t want to fade a home team in their opener.
I do think these two teams are incredibly evenly matched, though, and a tough, grind-it-out game that goes to overtime seems perfectly fitting.
It's close enough that I’m willing to sprinkle a shred of a unit on it at +1700.
Pick: Game to Go to Overtime (+1700)
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