NBA Player Prop Pick | Fade Damian Lillard in Bucks vs Cavaliers (Wednesday, Jan. 24)

NBA Player Prop Pick | Fade Damian Lillard in Bucks vs Cavaliers (Wednesday, Jan. 24) article feature image
Credit:

(Photo by Chris Schwegler/NBAE via Getty Images). Pictured: Damian Lillard.

Prop Bomb will be contributing to Action Network's NBA coverage this season and tracking all his bets in the Action Network app. Follow him on Twitter.


NBA Player Prop Pick | Wednesday, Jan. 24

Wednesday, Jan 24
8:00pm ET
BSWI
Damian Lillard Under 11.5 Rebounds + Assists (-115)

Since Damian Lillard is now playing with All-Stars like Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo, he has had to adjust to sharing the ball more than he did in Portland. The star point guard is averaging a combined 10.9 rebounds plus assists over his last 15 games.

Lillard comes into tonight's matchup in what I see as a sell-high spot for his ancillary stats. He averaged 15 rebounds plus assists in his last two games versus Detroit, inflating his averages against a bottom-tier team that allowed the most points per game (128.3) in January and ranks as the second-worst team in defensive rating.

However, in tonight's game against the Cavaliers, I expect regression in a tough matchup.

Since January, Cleveland has allowed the second-fewest rebounds plus assists to opposing point guards. Despite missing Evan Mobley and Darius Garland, the Cavaliers' defense remains elite. Over its last 15 games, the team has the best defensive rating and the second-best rebound percentage, and it holds teams to an average of 107 points per game (second lowest).

Lillard's teammates figure to draw difficult matchups most of the time against Jarrett Allen, Isaac Okoro, Dean Wade and Max Strus, all of whom are in the 78th percentile of defensive plus-minus, per dunksandthrees.com – one reason why Cleveland's defense is holding teams to the fewest assists since the new year.

In the last meeting between these two teams with Giannis healthy, Lillard combined for only six rebounds plus assists, and I'm buying the fact that it won't be easy to stat-stuff against a Cleveland defense that rebounds well and won't give up easy shots.

Action Network's model projects Lillard will finish with 10 rebounds plus assists, a nice 13.3% edge to go under his prop.

Pick: Damian Lillard Under 11.5 Rebounds + Assists (-115)


ESPN Bet is now live! Make sure you're ready for all the action with our exclusive ESPN BET promo code TANBONUS.


Phone With the Action App Open
The must-have app for NBA bettors
The best NBA betting scoreboard
Free picks from proven pros
Live win probabilities for your bets

How would you rate this article?

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.

Sportsbook Promos
See All
Legal Online Sports Betting

PrizePicks Promo Code ACTIONMAX Unlocks a 100% Deposit Match for Any Sport in 25+ States

Nick Sterling
May 21, 2024 UTC