Thursday’s 3 Best NBA Player Props: What’s a Darius Bazley?
Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Dariuz Bazley
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Thursday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from three of the slate’s three games:
- Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder: 8 p.m. ET
- San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks: 8 p.m. ET on TNT
- Portland Trail Blazers at Utah Jazz: 10 p.m. ET on TNT
Let’s dive in.
Spurs G DeMar DeRozan
THE PICK: Over 4.5 assists (+119) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
I don’t write nice things about DeMar DeRozan very often, so you know this must be a juicy play. The Spurs have started to find their way, and part of that has been DeRozan handling the ball a bit more and taking on more of a playmaking role.
DeRozan is averaging 5.2 assists over his last 12 games. That would be the second highest mark of his career, and remember, he had a career-best 6.2 dimes a game last year.
DeRozan covered this number in eight of those 12 games, and it’s that +119 juice that makes this so appealing.
Our model has DDR at 5.0 assists, and he’s had exactly that number eight times already this season. You’ll probably be sweating this one out, but it looks worth the play at +119 and down to +100.
Jazz F Joe Ingles
THE PICK: Over 4.5 rebounds (-134) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Come on. You want to ride with a dude named Jingles at Christmastime. Joe Ingles has been smashing in a bigger role with Mike Conley sidelined for the Jazz, and he’s one of our top DFS plays tonight, too. Ingles is shooting and assisting more, but just being involved more should help his rebounding numbers, too.
Ingles is at 4.6 rebounds per game since Conley’s injury, right at this number, and he benefits from a great matchup against Portland and a positive pace differential. More pace means more shots and more rebounds. Our models have Ingles at 6.2 boards, so you can ride Jingles Bells as high as -150.
Thunder F Darius Bazley
THE PICK: Under 7.5 points (+100) | Under 5.5 rebounds (-110) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Poor Darius Bazley never asked for this. You might have never even heard of the 19-year-old rookie who didn’t play college ball last year, but Bazley started for Danilo Gallinari Sunday and had a career-high eight rebounds plus seven points. Probably a top-3 game in his pro career.
Alas, that only means his name showed up on the prop board and we’re fading him hard. Gallo is questionable, and these lines will plummet or disappear if he is playing since that’s a near free win. Even if Bazley starts, he’s averaging only 25 minutes in two starts with nine points and 15 rebounds — combined.
Bazley has been okay defensively, but he isn’t ready on offense yet. He averages 8.3 points and 7.8 rebounds per 36 minutes. He’s not going to sniff 36 minutes tonight, so that shows you how safe the point total ought to be. I like that one better than the rebounds, especially with the +100 juice.
Our model has Bazley at 2.7 points and 2.2 rebounds in 11.5 minutes, obviously expecting Gallo to play. If you see news that Gallinari is starting and can beat the books, these are both worth playing at almost any number. Even if Bazley does get the start, these are still favorable numbers. Grab them now while you can.