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PropBetGuy’s Tuesday NBA Player Prop: Fade Jayson Tatum Game 1 Against the Heat

PropBetGuy’s Tuesday NBA Player Prop: Fade Jayson Tatum Game 1 Against the Heat article feature image
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Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Jayson Tatum #0 of the Boston Celtics.

PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.

Jayson Tatum Under 39.5 PTS + REB + AST

PropTatum under 39.5 PRA (-120)
MatchupCeltics vs. Heat
Time8:30 p.m. ET
Books AvailableDraftKings

During this postseason, Jayson Tatum has arguably made the leap into superstardom. Averaging a robust 40 PRA across his 11 playoff games, Tatum and the Boston Celtics have out-dueled Kevin Durant and the Brooklyn Nets, as well as Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks.

That being said, I’m fading the three-time All Star in Game 1 against the Heat.

Miami’s defense ranked fourth in the regular season, and ranks second in this postseason. They’ve stymied the likes of Trae Young, Joel Embiid and James Harden in their first two series, as Heat head coach Eric Spoelstra is arguably one of the best at scheming defensively against high-usage players. Over their six matchups the past two seasons, Tatum only averaged 36 PRA per 36 minutes against Miami.

In fact, Tatum’s per 36-minute PRA average took a hit against tougher competition in general this season. Against the top-10 team defenses, the Duke alum averaged 36.9 PRA per 36 minutes, on 43.5% shooting, compared to 40.23 PRA per 36 mins and 45.8% shooting in all other matchups.

While yes, this is the playoffs, Game 1 does bring the opportunity to scale back Tatum’s minutes just a bit, as these two teams gear up for what should be a hard-fought series.

Tonight, I have Tatum projected at 36 PRA in 38 minutes.

Pick: Jayson Tatum under 39.5 PRA (-120) — playable down to under 38.5 PRA

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Nick Sterling
Feb 29, 2024 UTC