We have an excellent slate of NBA games in front of us tonight, and I've been crunching the numbers to find the best spots on the board. From sides and totals to specific matchup angles, I've locked in my favorite plays for the evening.
Let's get into my NBA predictions for Saturday, November 7.
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NBA Predictions for Saturday, November 7
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Nuggets vs. Pacers
The underlying dynamics of this game make a sub-230 total feel like a mistake, and I actually have this matchup projected all the way up at 237.
The Pacers have taken a noticeable step back offensively without Tyrese Haliburton running the show, dropping to 18th in offensive efficiency, but their fundamental style hasn't changed.
The Pacers still want to get up the floor quickly, currently sitting ninth in overall pace, and they consistently engage defenses in cross-matches in transition. That type of scramble situation is exactly where Denver struggles, especially when forced to make multiple rotations to cover shooters from side to side.
On the other end of the floor, Denver's offense is starting to figure things out against smaller teams, highlighted by them absolutely tearing a capable Raptors defense to pieces the other night.
Nikola Jokic is fully engaged down low, Jamal Murray is playing dynamite basketball, and the Denver bench is providing a legitimate spark with guys like Marvin Bagley, Trevon Brazile, and Tyus Jones scoring efficiently.
While Denver's defense is systemically improved this year—climbing to 19th schedule-adjusted from their usual bottom-tier status last season—they are going to be tested by the elements.
This game is being played in Mexico City, meaning altitude is going to be a factor for both squads. In fact, this is the rare occasion where the Nuggets actually face an altitude disadvantage, given that Mexico City sits roughly 2,000 feet higher than Denver.
We should see a high volume of possessions and plenty of scoring in this one. I like the over.
Pick: Over 229.5 (-110)
If you want more picks for this game, read our full Nuggets vs Pacers betting preview!
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Magic vs. Warriors
Both of these defenses are fundamentally flawed in ways that should allow the opposing offenses to thrive.
Let's start with the Magic: their defense is quite simply not good right now. It is surprising given their elite defensive pedigree over the last few years, but even with a coaching change, they have taken a massive step backward.
The Magic currently sit 13th in schedule-adjusted defense, but watching them on film, they look much worse than that metric suggests. Golden State should be able to put up a healthy point total against them tonight.
However, on the other side of the floor, I am refusing to buy into the narrative that the Warriors are suddenly an unstoppable juggernaut just because they are riding a six-game winning streak.
Golden State remains susceptible on the defensive end, particularly when facing teams with overwhelming physical size and dynamic wing play.
The Magic boast a schematic advantage with their guards and forwards, and I fully expect Wendell Carter Jr. to dominate on the interior against the Warriors' undersized frontcourt.
I actually show some numerical edge on Orlando covering the spread, but I am too chicken to back them outright. Instead, I am trusting my total models.
When projecting this game using both last year's comprehensive data and the early numbers from this season, it lands comfortably over the 220.5 total.
Pick: Over 222.5 (-114)
If you want more picks for this game, read our full Magic vs Warriors betting preview!
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Spurs vs. Trail Blazers
Despite their bizarre early-season struggles that slightly suppressed their power rating, the Spurs genuinely look like the most complete basketball team in the NBA right now. The betting market is just a step behind in pricing them accordingly.
The Trail Blazers just played a physical, emotionally taxing rematch against the Lakers last night, and now they are going to roll into this back-to-back with dead legs against a focused Spurs squad.
My final bet structure will depend on exactly how the injury report shakes out.
If Victor Wembanyama is active, I will happily lay the 4.5 points with San Antonio on the spread. If Wemby happens to be the only player ruled out, my projected number shifts slightly to Blazers +2.5, at which point I will pivot and simply hammer the Spurs on the moneyline to get a win.
Regardless of how the final injury report shifts the numerical value, there is absolutely no scenario where I am not backing San Antonio tonight. The situational factors are too strong, and the Spurs are the much better team.
Pick: Spurs -5.5 (-110)
If you want more picks for this game, read our full Spurs vs Blazers betting preview!
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