The NBA grind continues tonight, and our Action Network staff has you covered from every angle. We've pooled our top analysis and broken down the board to bring you our favorite spreads, totals, and player props for today's slate.
Continue below for our NBA best bets, picks, and predictions for Saturday, November 7.
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NBA Best Bets for Saturday, November 7
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 5 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 8:30 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
  | 10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Nuggets vs. Pacers
Over 229.5
By Matt Moore
The underlying dynamics of this game make a sub-230 total feel like a mistake, and I actually have this matchup projected all the way up at 237.
The Pacers have taken a noticeable step back offensively without Tyrese Haliburton running the show, dropping to 18th in offensive efficiency, but their fundamental style hasn't changed.
The Pacers still want to get up the floor quickly, currently sitting ninth in overall pace, and they consistently engage defenses in cross-matches in transition.
That type of scramble situation is exactly where Denver struggles, especially when forced to make multiple rotations to cover shooters from side to side.
On the other end of the floor, Denver's offense is starting to figure things out against smaller teams, highlighted by them absolutely tearing a capable Raptors defense to pieces the other night.
Nikola Jokic is fully engaged down low, Jamal Murray is playing dynamite basketball, and the Denver bench is providing a legitimate spark with guys like Marvin Bagley, Trevon Brazile, and Tyus Jones scoring efficiently.
While Denver's defense is systemically improved this year—climbing to 19th schedule-adjusted from their usual bottom-tier status last season—they are going to be tested by the elements.
This game is being played in Mexico City, meaning altitude is going to be a factor for both squads. In fact, this is the rare occasion where the Nuggets actually face an altitude disadvantage, given that Mexico City sits roughly 2,000 feet higher than Denver.
We should see a high volume of possessions and plenty of scoring in this one. I like the over.
Pick: Over 229.5 (-110)
Obi Toppin Over 11.5 Points
By Joe Dellera
Obi Toppin has been very consistent to start the year, clearing this 10.5-point line in all six games he has played while averaging a solid 14.5 points per contest.
Toppin has also historically thrived in this specific matchup, posting 22 and 11 points the last two times he squared off against Denver last season.
The most appealing part of this prop is how beautifully Toppin's shot profile aligns with the defensive looks that the Nuggets concede.
Denver still gives up a heavy dose of above-the-break looks, but they are also quite susceptible to giving up attempts from the corners, and Toppin takes the third-most corner threes on the Pacers while knocking them down at a 46 percent clip.
Beyond the perimeter shooting, Toppin’s athleticism is the real key here. As brilliant as Nikola Jokic is overall, he is not known as a dominant rim protector, and Denver is allowing a high volume of attempts right at the basket.
That is another area where Toppin thrives, whether he is catching lob passes in transition, cutting back-door, or simply putting his head down and utilizing his physical burst to drive to the rack.
The Pacers want to play fast, and Toppin should benefit from rim-runs before the Nuggets' half-court defense can properly set up.
Coming into this matchup with a couple of extra days of rest, Toppin is going to have fresh legs and ample opportunity to secure a handful of easy transition buckets to help push him over this total.
Pick: Obi Toppin Over 11.5 Points (-110)
DeMar DeRozan Over 11.5 Points
By Joe Dellera
DeMar DeRozan has historically performed exceptionally well against the Pacers, including a dominant 20-point, 12-rebound outing the last time he faced them.
This specific matchup favors DeRozan's preferred style of play. He still loves to operate out of post-ups, and that happens to be an area where Indiana's defense is weak.
The situational environment of this game also provides a boost to DeRozan's projected volume. Because this matchup is being played at elevation in Mexico City, conditioning is going to be a factor.
The altitude will force the Nuggets to dig deeper into their rotation to keep their primary starters fresh, which naturally paves the way for DeRozan to see an uptick in minutes and overall run with the second unit.
Indiana's defense is bad and they play at a very fast pace, which creates extra possessions and a chaotic game flow.
With the Pacers forced to focus the brunt of their defensive attention on slowing down Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, DeRozan is going to find himself in favorable isolation matchups against undersized wings like Andrew Nembhard.
DeRozan is still excellent at generating contact, scoring in the post, and creating his own looks. Even though he has struggled with his shot efficiency in his last few games, the sheer volume of opportunities he generates against a soft Indiana defense should be more than enough to sneak him over this number today.
Pick: DeMar DeRozan Over 11.5 Points (-115)
If you want more picks for this game, read our full Nuggets vs Pacers betting preview!
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Knicks vs. Cavaliers
Knicks -4.5
This is a great spot for the Knicks to get above .500 for the first time this season — in theory — but the Cavs are coming off a terrific win over the 76ers last night.
In beating Philly 119-95 on Friday's NBA Cup game, you can convincingly argue that Cleveland put together its most complete effort of the season so far.
But they'll be at a rest disadvantage against the Knicks, who are in Cleveland on Saturday following two days off after their 135-105 romp over the Bulls.
Notably, this marks the first time these two lock horns since the Eastern Conference Finals, where the Knicks swept Cleveland en route to the NBA Finals and their eventual first title in 53 years.
I think New York should by laying more than five points here. The Knicks have a two-day rest advantage against a team they've owned that might be down their starting center and an important role player.
Give me the defending champs -4.5 tonight.
Pick: Knicks -4.5 (-110)
If you want more picks for this game, read our full Knicks vs Cavaliers betting preview!
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Magic vs. Warriors
Over 222.5
By Matt Moore
Both of these defenses are fundamentally flawed in ways that will allow the opposing offenses to thrive.
Let's start with the Magic: their defense is quite simply not good right now. It is surprising given their elite defensive pedigree over the last few years, but even with a coaching change, they have taken a massive step backward.
The Magic currently sit 13th in schedule-adjusted defense, but watching them on film, they look much worse than that metric suggests. Golden State should be able to put up a healthy point total against them tonight.
However, on the other side of the floor, I am refusing to buy into the narrative that the Warriors are suddenly an unstoppable juggernaut just because they are riding a six-game winning streak.
Golden State remains susceptible on the defensive end, particularly when facing teams with overwhelming physical size and dynamic wing play.
The Magic boast a schematic advantage with their guards and forwards, and I fully expect Wendell Carter Jr. to dominate on the interior against the Warriors' undersized frontcourt.
I actually show some numerical edge on Orlando covering the spread, but I am too chicken to back them outright. Instead, I am trusting my total models.
When projecting this game using both last year's comprehensive data and the early numbers from this season, it lands comfortably over the 220.5 total.
Pick: Over 222.5 (-114)
If you want more picks for this game, read our full Magic vs Warriors betting preview!
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Rockets vs. Suns
Rockets 1H -3.5
This is shaping up to be an excellent situational spot for Houston. The Rockets are coming into this game with extra motivation after a tough loss against Minnesota, while Phoenix is sitting in a classic let-down spot after finally securing their first win since October against Orlando the other night.
When you break down the schematic matchup, it favors how Houston naturally wants to operate. The Rockets generate the vast majority of their offense from the mid-range, and the Suns' defensive scheme happens to concede some of the highest shooting percentages in the league from that exact area on the floor.
Whether it's Kevin Durant pulling up or Alperen Sengun operating at the elbows, Houston has the firepower to separate early.
The most compelling angle here, however, revolves around the stark contrast in first-half execution between these two teams.
Houston has been elite out of the gates this season, boasting a phenomenal +19.1 net rating in the first half. Meanwhile, the Suns have been getting completely buried early in games, carrying a dismal -11.4 net rating into halftime. That is a gargantuan 30.5-point delta between these two squads in the opening 24 minutes.
I prefer attacking the first-half spread to avoid the full-game number because Phoenix tends to stabilize slightly in the second half (-2.2 net rating), while Ime Udoka's Rockets frequently struggle with fourth-quarter execution and crunch-time offense (+1.5 net rating).
Looking at the ATS trends, Houston is a sterling 7-2 against the spread in the first half, while Phoenix sits at a miserable 2-5.
I love the Rockets to jump out to a fast start here.
Pick: Rockets 1H -3.5 (-110)
Kevin Durant Over 21.5 Points
By Joe Dellera
I am grabbing Kevin Durant to clear 20.5 points against his former team, the Phoenix Suns.
This has been a somewhat unusual season for KD from a scoring perspective; he is averaging a modest 20.8 points per game and hasn't truly uncorked a massive ceiling game since dropping 30 points in the season opener.
Durant even caught some flack from a reporter recently regarding his lack of aggression, to which he responded that his gravity simply opens up the floor for the rest of his teammates.
While that unselfish approach is accurate, this feels like the perfect spot for Durant to take a decisive step forward, shoulder the scoring load, and remind his former franchise exactly who he is.
From a purely schematic standpoint, the Suns offer a favorable defensive matchup for his specific shot profile. Durant gets his buckets from above the break, in the mid-range, and working his way into the paint—and those are the exact zones where Phoenix's defense is susceptible.
The Suns are bleeding looks from two-point range, struggling to defend the arc, and committing fouls at a high clip. They are also weak at contesting elite spot-up shooters.
Durant is quite literally one of the best spot-up shooters in the history of the sport, and Phoenix lacks the perimeter length to effectively bother his release.
Even if you have to pay a little bit of juice, backing KD to score 22 points against a porous Suns defense in a revenge-ish narrative spot is fantastic value.
Pick: Kevin Durant Over 21.5 Points (-120)
If you want more picks for this game, read our full Rockets vs Suns betting preview!
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Spurs vs. Trail Blazers
Spurs -5.5
The schedule is brutal for both sides; the Spurs are playing a back-to-back (their third game in four nights and fourth in six), and Portland is also on the second night of a back-to-back.
However, the personnel impacts are vastly different. The current -5.5 line feels suspiciously low and seems to be baking in the assumption that Victor Wembanyama sits.
I actually expect Wemby to play—last season, in seven identical rest-disadvantage scenarios, he only took a rest day once.
The real concern is on the Portland side. It seems very likely that Damian Lillard (managing the Achilles recovery) and Robert Williams (who routinely sits out back-to-backs) will be ruled out.
If Dame and Time Lord hit the bench, it compounds an already crowded injury report for a Blazers team currently missing Ja Morant, Shaedon Sharpe, and now Vit Krejci.
Even if Wemby were to sit out for San Antonio, the Spurs have proven they can survive without him; they went an impressive 12-7 against the spread in games without Wembanyama last season.
If Portland rests their key veterans as expected, this game profiles as a blowout regardless of who San Antonio rolls out.
I anticipate this number climbing much higher than -4.5 once the official rest designations drop, and in a scenario where Lillard and Williams are out, I would comfortably lay this all the way up to -7.
Pick: Spurs -5.5 (-110)
Scoot Henderson Over 12.5 Points
I am looking at Scoot Henderson to go over 11.5 points tonight, but this play comes with an essential caveat: you must wait to ensure Damian Lillard is officially ruled out on the injury report.
This is a one-star lean precisely because it is dependent on Portland resting their veterans on the second night of a back-to-back.
If Lillard sits, Henderson's offensive usage skyrockets by a staggering +16.7 percent. While his overall shot quality slightly dips as the primary focus of the defense, his true shooting percentage actually jumps by 10 percent, and his efficiency finishing at the rim significantly improves without Dame on the floor.
Additionally, the likely absence of Robert Williams plays perfectly into Scoot's hands. Time Lord is a clunky offensive fit next to Henderson because neither player spaces the floor with three-point shooting.
When Williams sits, the paint opens up, and Henderson's effective field goal percentage and at-rim finishing numbers tend to take a leap.
The Spurs boast a tremendous overall defense that excels at limiting three-point opportunities, but they concede a heavy diet of mid-range jumpers.
Conveniently, the mid-range is virtually the only area where Henderson consistently looks to score right now; he rarely takes threes anyway, meaning San Antonio's primary defensive strength won't actively hinder his game.
Wait for Lillard's status to drop, and if he sits, fire on Scoot's over.
Pick: Scoot Henderson Over 12.5 Points (-125)
If you want more picks for this game, read our full Spurs vs Blazers betting preview!
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